Kim Jong-un Coup Attempt: North Korean Leader may have Fled Pyongyang Amid Threats to Life

originally posted by: Liberal1984
I Totally disagree with both Aloysius the Gaul and daaskcapital!! A coup is good news for the people of North Korea because the dictatorship that exists there could hardly be worse.

I don't think any one of us can actually comment on the dictatorship without any personal experiences. A coup could be beneficial to the public, but it could also be disastrous.

Therefore the more changes of North Korean leadership there are, the higher the probability or a 1989 style implosion of totalitarianism (that is otherwise at least rationally, militarily undefeatable).

North Korea was progressing, and i personally believe that it would be better for the people if Kim Jong-Un had slowly introduced globalisation to the state...which he was actually doing. A coup would be disastrous in that there are many factions in North Korea which may vie for control. A coup would be disastrous in that there are millions of people who will need to be reeducated and cared for.

In Addition The Signs Are Extremely Good…

Yes.

North Korea’s eternal state of war, does not personally serve even the Generals in North Korea (because even these people are now suffering shortages of certain goods) this has long been the case but there are reasons why they may be challenging Kim-Jung now…

The shortages are a result of economic sanctions, and North Koreans believe it to be the fault of the West...

1. He is even less interested in rational economic reforms than his daddy –something that must be making the powerful question their path.

Kim Jong-Un has espoused economic reform, and has even acted in improving the North Korean economy.

Although accurate numbers are hard to come by, Chen Xiaohe, an expert on North Korea from Renmin University in China, estimates that GDP has grown since 2011 at between 1.7 and 2 percent. “This is a small economic improvement, but if we compare it with his father Kim Jong-il, the economy is today more stable and there is some economic development,” he says.

...

On the streets of Pyongyang, the minor “adjustments” – North Korean politicians don’t like the word “reform” because they consider it too daring – are easy to spot. The last few years have seen a host of cranes and building activity. The Ryugyong Hotel, which started construction in 1987 and wasn’t finished until 2011, now stands as a modern landmark in the capital. “Kim Jong-un has been spending a lot of money. They’ve been building a lot in Pyongyang and also along the border with China, where you’ll see new roads, some houses and new statues,” says Catchart, who has serious doubts about how long they can keep with the construction boom.

The economic growth has allowed for improved living conditions for most North Koreans, especially for those at the top. Kim Jong-un has gotten rid of his father’s austerity policy and Pyongyang has seen an increase in the number of privately run restaurants, luxury stores, and cellphones users. Four years ago it was difficult to spot a car in the North Korean capital, but today there are small traffic jams during rush hour.

thediplomat.com...

2. The economic ideas he does have, seem to be further wrecking the country…
North Korea Ski Resort: www.bbc.co.uk...

The resort was eventually opened though, but has met limited success. It seems to be more geared towards tourism. That said, Kim Jong-Un's actions have improved the state. See above.

3. He seems exceptionally brutal to those around him –perhaps too brutal.

To be frank, he has had to be brutal.

He was thrust into a powerful position surrounded by people hand-picked to guide him. He obviously couldn't trust many from the 'old guard'. Those who were more loyal to his father and grandfather, than to himself. Indeed, there are powerful forces still inside the North Korean government.

4. He likes spending his free time picking pretty girls for music concerts, rather than running the country –this potentially makes him vulnerable to those around him.

And you know this by quoting one report...

Yes, he does the things you say, but it is ludicrous to suggest that as a leader he doesn't often focus on running the country. Of course he does.

It seems those around him have (metaphorically) simply given him enough chocolate to drown himself in it. Let’s hope this will be good news, for one of the world’s both most suppressed people, and political systems.

It sounds like those around him are older and have their allegiances elsewhere. It sounds like Kim Jong-Un has had to wrestle for control of the state. It sounds like those around him are displeased with the way in which he is taking the country.

But yes, if this is a coup, i hope it turns out well for the people. I don't have high hopes though.

Personally…
I have long thought the way to make North Korea a democracy is to offer those who run it immunity for their crimes against humanity, and more money than they could ever spend.

That may work, and it may be a way in which the west could leverage support and power in the state.

This is the way to do it, because at the end of the day there’s a lot of powerful people in North Korea who don’t have everything they need. In addition to lacking material goods they live under fear, but fear only works if the person behind giving the fear is focussed on his job of both causing fear and competently delivering it.
It seems Kim Jung-un has been more focussed on pleasure, and that

I'm not sure why you seem overly confident that Kim Jong-Un isn't focused on his job. Unless your or i know him personally, we can't comment on his personal life and the way in which he runs the country. Based on the state of the country, compared to what it was under his father, i would say that he seems to be doing something right.....

War would be stupid (because with their WMD’s war could easily kill more people, than there actually are North Koreans).

War's never good, and i expect nukes to fly if the North Korean regime felt it was on its knees and had nothing left to fear.

Meanwhile I understand NK is unlikely to want immunity for their crimes against humanity, given this involves trust, and they already possess a far more stable guarantee of criminal immunity simply by remaining within NK (and keeping it a dictatorship).

However there is no harm in South Korea ensuring that (if NK’s leaders did want to give up the insecurities of wondering which want to be despot, is going to stab their despotic back… In exchange for the less stressful life a multi-millionaire lifestyle) then both the offer, and immunity in law, would be there.

Indeed, it would be a tempting offer.

a reply to: Liberal1984

Assuming the reports are true and the rumors reflect reality, a coup may be in progress. I agree with the posters who consider this potentially very dangerous. If German diplomats are summoned to Pyonyang or Seoul, we will know that the objective will be re-unification. North Korea might use the nuclear card to get cash from the US and its allies to finance a transition to a transitional "federated" condition. This would be the best outcome. On the other hand, there might be a power struggle that turns into civil war. Either way, there will be posters here soon enough denouncing the United States. either for overthrowing the "legitimate government " and turning it into a puppet, or for inciting the civil war for its own nefarious ends.

US officials have landed in South Korea to talk about the North...safe to say that something is well underway now, yeah? Perhaps the meetings were already pre-planned, but i still find it suspicious that they're flying in a day after a meeting with North Korean officials, in order to discuss situations with the North.

U.S. officials arrived in Seoul for talks on N. Korea, security issues

Senior U.S. government officials handling Korean affairs arrived in Seoul Sunday to discuss ways to beef up the alliance between the two countries and other pending issues such as North Korea, Seoul officials said.

Assistant Deputy Secretary of State Daniel Russel and Assistant Deputy Secretary of Defense David Shear flied into Seoul late Sunday for a three-day visit before heading to Japan, officials said.

The trip comes after a North Korean military-party delegation met South Korean high-ranking officials on Saturday on a rare one-day visit to the South.

Seoul officials said that they and U.S. officials are likely to exchange views about the outcome of the recent talks with the North's delegation and their North Korean policy.

www.koreatimes.co.kr...

We'll see what happens.

i have nothing of value to add to this thread but i loved this

After various reports that claimed that North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un was lying low due to his excessive weight gain – thanks to his love for Swiss cheese

that reads pretty funny

a reply to: Aazadan

I called this one...

What Un did was to initially purge the people who ran things under his father. He purged them and replaced them with people who were loyal to him. Un was not suppose to assume control when he did. Since his father died "unexpectedly" he was pushed into the position early. It prevented him from building the loyalty with his fathers associates.

The purge of the uncle apparently sent shockwaves. His aunt supposedly had to leave the country for medical treatment because of the execution.

Back in December there were reports of military units engaging each other in Pyongyang. In the last month the guy in charge of N. Korean finances defected to Russia. This guy knew where all the money / etc is at.

Un continued the purges of the military, executing generals and anyone attached to those generals. The execution of his uncle strained relations with China as he was the main go between.

Un has consistently pissed off China with its nuclear testing as well as its threats of war with the South and US, including using nuclear weapons. China actually cut the flow of oil to N. Korea and has increased customs inspections at the border.

Un's estranged brother (the one arrested trying to go to Disney land in Japan) was last seen in china and under Chinese protection. Its possible they were holding on to him on the off chance Un needed to go. I doubt he would be of any use now though. Un's sister is currently overseeing things, which may be a smoke screen for the people to give the illusion their "dear leaders family" is still around.

Un and his family have created mythical tales of their existence that N. Koreans believe. The family has claimed they created golf, are descendant's of Gods, etc etc etc.

The "family" was the only thing holding N. Korea together. Absent them and the brutal manner in which they ruled you are going to see generals vying for control. To try and run a country that had the family removed could cause issues with N. Korean civilians. How they perceive a change (assuming a coup occurred) will give us an idea on stability.

North Korea also was prepping for another nuclear test so I am curious if that might have been a factor. We also had North Korea deploy tanks to the border of china with no explanation. Some speculated it may have been to capture some defectors but nothing more ever was discussed.

I am wondering if Un isn't already dead from a coup and those in charge are trying to make the transition before it becomes public knowledge. The group that went to S. Korea had in the past discussed a possible one country 2 government system with S. Korea. Something I don't think the S. entertained. It was essentially join with t he South for the economic assistance while the north would be under a similar style system in place now.

We must remember that when Un took power, he was not the sole leader. It was a council which included himself, his uncle and a top general. 2 of the 3 were purged and replaced, with Un being the survivor.

Coup... no coup... I think we are seeing the end of N. Korea as we know it.

One concern would be the security surrounding their nuclear weapons program / bombs. Hopefully that stuff will be secured before it gets sold off.

a reply to: daaskapital

Whatever it is it seems to be important / serious enough to require face to face meetings. I am wondering if they will meet with any North Koreans.

I also wonder if the face to face meetings is to prevent a leak of what might be coming down the pipeline.

I think Kim is dead. His Generals are trying to figure out what to do.

a reply to: FlyersFan

It was progressing economically. More North Koreans are now connected to the outside world. Economy is growing. The living standards of many North Koreans have also been raised under Kim Jong-Un's leadership.

Don't get me wrong. The changes are minimal at best, but it shows that Kim Jong-Un was actually willing to engage in projects and methods of raising the living standards of his citizens.

Kim Jong-Un had talked reform, and he made improvements. I believe that it is what he was aiming for, and that he has had to 'fight' the 'old guard' to achieve his objectives. He has had to effectively wrestle for control of the state and purge threats to his position. It may be why it has taken a while for North Korea to start improving under his watch...it is important to note that he was prematurely thrust into the position, and under 'guidance'. He couldn't change things with a snap of his fingers.

Just speculating of course, but North Korea has benefited under Kim Jong-Un. That much is fact. Here's a thread i made about it, if you're interested:

www.abovetopsecret.com...

a reply to: daaskapital

Last I checked everyday N. Korean could not own cell phones nor do they have internet access. The only ones who get those perks would be those living in the Capital (which you can live their by invite only) and high ranking party members.

In terms of economic I guess you have a valid point being their economy was below rock bottom. Nowhere to go but up. The issue again though is the changes are geared to attract foreign visitors and not so much for North Korean citizens.

The north still maintains their military first policies, which means the military gets food and supplies over the civilians, who get what's left, which is usually slim to none.

A crime against the state still results in 3 generations of the family serving time before "all is forgiven", provided they make it to the 2nd and 3rd generation. The stories from those who escaped make Nazi Germany's camps look quaint and tranquil.

We are talking about a government system that killed people because they did not show enough remorse when Kim Jong Il died.

originally posted by: Xcathdra
a reply to: daaskapital

Last I checked everyday N. Korean could not own cell phones nor do they have internet access. The only ones who get those perks would be those living in the Capital (which you can live their by invite only) and high ranking party members.

I do believe you are mostly correct in that the majority of mobile phone holders are elites who live in Pyongyang. That said, North Korea has, this year, passed a hurdle in that over 2 million people are now connected to one another. Now obviously that is only a minority of the many millions who live in North Korea, and restrictions still persist in regards to communication with foreign entities, but the evidence still shows that more people in North Korea are using phones. Not only for communication, but for business too.

The North Korean mobile telecommunications market has seen dramatic subscriber growth over the last five years, contrary to initial speculation that mobile services would be limited to the elite. Although North Korea is one of the world’s least-penetrated markets, with a penetration rate of around 9%, the influx of mobile handsets could potentially undermine the authoritarian regime’s social control system. However, North Korea seems to be far away from the threshold of a telecommunications revolution, and the regime remains stable, with no social disruption caused or supported by the mobile network.

Despite the large number of subscribers, the actual number of users is still controversial. In spite of much anecdotal evidence and growing conspicuous consumption, inactive numbers and distribution of cell phones for official use suggest that the number of actual users may be much fewer than what Orascom has reported. In addition, the prohibitive top-up rates have made general users reserve their calls for important messages or emergencies. New digital social networking remains an unreachable luxury for the general opulation, and traditional self-censorship prevents politically sensitive conversations from taking place on cell phones. Consequently, a “Korean Spring” is unlikely in the near future.

It is noteworthy that cell phones have introduced meaningful changes to private economic activities. The nationwide mobile network has allowed traders greater mobility and rapid exchanges of market information. They are able to make more profits by responding to changing market conditions at an unprecedented speed. This has led to the suppression of sharp increases in prices, to the benefit of consumers. Cell phones have also facilitated a burgeoning private money transfer system among traders, with clientele expanding to include recipients of money remitted from their defector families in South Korea.

uskoreainstitute.org...

And while many who live on the lower end of the spectrum cannot afford the luxuries of mobile phones, the evidence still shows that more people are connected.

In terms of economic I guess you have a valid point being their economy was below rock bottom. Nowhere to go but up. The issue again though is the changes are geared to attract foreign visitors and not so much for North Korean citizens.

You are right in that a lot of the economical projects are geared towards tourism. As noted in an article i posted earlier though, construction is happening inside North Korea, for North Koreans. It is a sign of economic improvement.

The north still maintains their military first policies, which means the military gets food and supplies over the civilians, who get what's left, which is usually slim to none.

No doubt about that...it's why i maintain that people should never underestimate North Korea's military prowess...

A crime against the state still results in 3 generations of the family serving time before "all is forgiven", provided they make it to the 2nd and 3rd generation. The stories from those who escaped make Nazi Germany's camps look quaint and tranquil.

Again. No doubt about that.

We are talking about a government system that killed people because they did not show enough remorse when Kim Jong Il died.

And no doubt about that.

I'm not excusing the regime. I made that perfectly clear in the thread of which i linked in my reply to FlyersFan. The slight progress of North Korea does not excuse the human rights violations cast at North Korea and Kim Jong-Un.

originally posted by: daaskapital
I'm not excusing the regime. I made that perfectly clear in the thread of which i linked in my reply to FlyersFan. The slight progress of North Korea does not excuse the human rights violations cast at North Korea and Kim Jong-Un.

Sorry if it came across as accusatory as it was not my intent. I don't think you are making excuses for N. Korea and the info you provided supports the claims you made.

I am just leery of N. Korean "social advancement". Everything the N. Korean government has done and is doing is geared to supporting the regime, imo anyways. The restrictions in place on the phones and internet would be like Hitler telling people he has set up cell phones and internet access in the camps.

Since the only info you get is Nazi and the only people you can call are family / friends it does not really come ac4ross as doing something good for the people - if that makes sense.

Since N. Korean paranoia is light years ahead of Nazi Germany's I see this as nothing but an image campaign. Another example would be the Us citizen who travelled to North Korea who then ripped up his passport. His stated goal was to demonstrate how bad the human rights record was in N. Korea. He was tried and convicted and sent to a hard labor camp for 6 years.

The problem is he is kept in isolation and only works in the field for 8 hours. N. Korea is using this as an example of their human rights record.

Its nothing but a pr campaign.

Anyways - just raising a counter point based on my opinion. again not accusing you of anything - just engaging in debate .

originally posted by: Xcathdra

originally posted by: daaskapital
I'm not excusing the regime. I made that perfectly clear in the thread of which i linked in my reply to FlyersFan. The slight progress of North Korea does not excuse the human rights violations cast at North Korea and Kim Jong-Un.

Sorry if it came across as accusatory as it was not my intent. I don't think you are making excuses for N. Korea and the info you provided supports the claims you made.

No worries! I apologise if i came off as rude...i didn't mean to.

I am just leery of N. Korean "social advancement". Everything the N. Korean government has done and is doing is geared to supporting the regime, imo anyways. The restrictions in place on the phones and internet would be like Hitler telling people he has set up cell phones and internet access in the camps.

Since the only info you get is Nazi and the only people you can call are family / friends it does not really come ac4ross as doing something good for the people - if that makes sense.

I can see where you are coming from, and i agree. If anything, mobile phones were introduced specifically for the purpose of surveillance. It would seem that North Koreans are benefiting from the introduction though.

Since N. Korean paranoia is light years ahead of Nazi Germany's I see this as nothing but an image campaign. Another example would be the Us citizen who travelled to North Korea who then ripped up his passport. His stated goal was to demonstrate how bad the human rights record was in N. Korea. He was tried and convicted and sent to a hard labor camp for 6 years.

The problem is he is kept in isolation and only works in the field for 8 hours. N. Korea is using this as an example of their human rights record.

Its nothing but a pr campaign.

Yes, you are correct. It just so happens to mostly coincide with North Korea's rebuttal of UN allegations as well...

Matthew Miller is most definitely being used as a tool. I expect he will be further used in upcoming negotiations between the North and South too.

Anyways - just raising a counter point based on my opinion. again not accusing you of anything - just engaging in debate

.

No worries! Debates are always great, and i apologise for my reactions...

Thanks!

originally posted by: daaskapital


Matthew Miller is most definitely being used as a tool. I expect he will be further used in upcoming negotiations between the North and South too.

He made his own bed by doing what he did. If you are an outsider and are going to play stickball in the Bronx you better know the rules first. In this instance I don't think he should be a topic during negotiations. He willingly went to NK on a mission to demonstrate how bad their human rights are. He willing performed an action the North would flip over, and did.

In this case he broke NK laws. Why should the US government retrieve him? If we make it a habit it may very well become an income source for the NK government.

As for your last comment your good and you did not come across that way. We have had our differences on other topics and wanted to make sure I was not dragging those disagreements into this topic.

North Korea says nothing wrong with leader Kim Jong-Un

The North Korean delegates who went to Soul were as high as you can get -
The delegation included three of the most trusted aides of the North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un.

* - Kim Yang-Gon - heads a ruling party department in charge of South Korea-related affairs, and his reported comment was the first by a senior official on Kim Jong-Un's wellbeing.

* - Pyong-So - Saturday's delegation was led by the vice chairman of the North's powerful National Defence Commission, Hwang Pyong-So, who is widely viewed as Kim's de-facto number two.

* - Choe Ryong-hae.

If true I am sure Dennis Rodman will let him stay with him.

And hell there is California that never met an illegal they didn't like.

Kims gots options.

Here is the article from 2012 about the gun battle in Pyongyang -


July 2012 - Gun battles in North Korea as Army Chief is purged?

There was supposedly an attempt on Un sometime last year. A female north Korean police woman was awarded by Un for taking some type of action that may have saved Un's life. The details on the incident were far and few in-between.