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But by mc_squared's accord, they should be "dismissed" because they are "irrelevant".
It explains why you both post the same garbage to support your arguments and use the same exact tactics to try and demean and belittle people who poke holes in your ideology.
Here’s the logic:
a) We know that human caused climate change is a fact. (We heard this repeatedly asserted in the “debate” above, did we not? It is a fact that CO2 is a radiatively coupled gas, completely ignoring the actual logarithmic curve Goreham presented, it is a fact that our models show that that more CO2 must lead to more warming, it is a fact that all sorts of climate changes are soundly observed, occurred when CO2 was rising so it is a fact that CO2 is the cause, count the logical and scientific fallacies at your leisure).
b) This paper that I’m reviewing asserts that human caused climate change is not a fact. It therefore contradicts “known science”, because human caused climate change is a fact. Indeed, I can cite hundreds of peer reviewed publications that conclude that it is a fact, so it must be so.
c) Therefore, I recommend rejecting this paper.
It is a good thing that Einstein’s results didn’t occur in Climate Science. He had a hard enough time getting published in physics journals, but physicists more often than not follow the rules and accept a properly written paper without judging whether or not its conclusions are true, with the clear understanding that debate in the literature is precisely where and how this sort of thing should be cleared up, and that if that debate is stifled by gatekeeping, one more or less guarantees that no great scientific revolutions can occur because radical new ideas even when correct are, well, radical. In one stroke they can render the conclusions of entire decades of learned publications by the world’s savants pointless and wrong. This means that physics is just a little bit tolerant of the (possible) crackpot. All too often the crackpot has proven not only to be right, but so right that their names are learned by each succeeding generation of physicist with great reverence.
Maybe that is what is missing in climate science — the lack of any sort of tradition of the maverick being righter than the entire body of established work, a tradition of big mistakes that work amazingly well — until they don’t and demand explanations that prove revolutionary. Once upon a time we celebrated this sort of thing throughout science, but now science itself is one vast bureaucracy, one that actively repels the very mavericks that we rely on to set things right when we go badly astray.
originally posted by: mc_squared
a reply to: SonOfTheLawOfOne
But by mc_squared's accord, they should be "dismissed" because they are "irrelevant".
^I love this. You say it as if I wrote the paper or something.
It’s not “by mc_squared’s accord” - it’s by the principles of the scientific method. How exactly is anyone supposed to use these papers to tabulate an opinion on the causes of climate change, when they say absolutely nothing about those causes? ESP? Maybe crush the papers up and read them like tea leaves?
We find that 66.4% of abstracts expressed no position on AGW, 32.6% endorsed AGW, 0.7% rejected AGW and 0.3% were uncertain about the cause of global warming. Among abstracts expressing a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming.
Nobody is suggesting they are not valid pieces of work in their own right – just that they are useless for the purposes of quantifying this discussion.
Meanwhile if there was anywhere near the supposed dissent you keep trying to project there is – the fact is it would show up in far more than a piddly 1.9% of the papers that do take up an actual position.
And before you come telling me "oooh it’s all a big conspiracy and everyone who says it’s not happening can’t get published": what’s more telling than anything is the fact that the uncertains make up an even smaller percentage than the not happenings. There is less uncertainty even than there is deniers!
...
In that section the overall consensus was virtually unchanged at 97.2%, even though a far larger proportion of the papers (64.5%) took up an explicit position this time. The authors were under no peer review, no pressure or politics to cave to – they just had to answer a simple questions and if they were feeling stifled this was their chance to speak up and be heard. Yet all they did was reinforce the 97% consensus.
In his "Introduction to TCP," Cook acknowledges that probably only half of the 12,000 papers they’ve selected will either explicitly or implicitly endorse AGW alarmism. But over time, he expects online volunteers to “process” many of the 6,000 non-endorsement papers, “converting” them into endorsements! Here’s Cook:
I anticipate there will be around 6000 "neutral" papers. So what I was thinking of doing next was a public crowd sourcing project where the public are given the list of neutral papers and links to the full paper — if they find evidence of an endorsement, they submit it to SkS (Skeptical Science)…. Thus over time, we would gradually process the 6000 neutral papers, converting many of them to endorsement papers — and make regular announcements like "hey the consensus just went from 99.75% to 99.8%, here are the latest papers with quotes."
Cook went on to sketch out an entire promotional campaign utilizing press releases, major media programs, booklets, Kindle/iBooks, blogs, etc. “We beat the consensus drum often and regularly and make SkS the home of the perceived strengthening consensus,” Cook advised.
At least one of the members of his team seems to have recognized that Cook had the emphasis all backwards. Ari Jokimäki responded:
I have to say that I find this planning of huge marketing strategies somewhat strange when we don't even have our results in and the research subject is not that revolutionary either (just summarizing existing research).
So once again your arguments are completely invalid. You’re just making up wildly hypothetical (i.e. entirely unscientific) scenarios to make yourself feel better because this paper doesn't say what you want it to say.
We find that 66.4% of abstracts expressed no position on AGW, 32.6% endorsed AGW, 0.7% rejected AGW and 0.3% were uncertain about the cause of global warming. Among abstracts expressing a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming.
originally posted by: mc_squared
a reply to: SonOfTheLawOfOne
It explains why you both post the same garbage to support your arguments and use the same exact tactics to try and demean and belittle people who poke holes in your ideology.
So what holes have you poked in our “ideology” here exactly?
In this thread you have very clearly demonstrated you don’t understand the papers or the basis for that 97% consensus you’ve been trying so hard (and failing) to tear down. The OP has demonstrated he doesn’t understand his own links that he naively used to show the exact opposite of what he’s trying to say. And in doing so all you guys have done in general is continue to reinforce the narrative people like me have been pushing since day 1, that being:
1. The science on climate change is actually quite solid and robust.
2. Virtually all “skepticism” on this subject is in fact manufactured by corrupt special interest groups and their government sympathizers, who twist facts and use seedy PR strategies to manipulate naïve people like yourself into believing it’s the science that’s corrupt.
3. These shills get away with it because ignorant masses provide endless fuel for their propaganda fire - neglecting to research any of this material critically or objectively, and opting instead to just swallow all the lies whole, because you just love bitching about Al Gore, or fantasizing that you're so much smarter than the average bear (not to mention the entire scientific establishment).
...
So here’s the deal – I have much better things to do than “belittle and demean people”. But ever since I made the rookie mistake of once trying to engage in a reasonable debate on this, I’ve encountered pretty much nothing but militant ignorance and abuse from phony skeptics everywhere - usually followed by unapologetic denial, deflection, and most of all endless whining about being victimized for having a “different opinion” once you start to lose the argument very badly.
Your attitude has been absolutely no exception: YOU started this little exchange with your condescending remarks about people like me, who apparently can’t read or understand things like Cook’s paper. Then, when all I did was point out what a completely oblivious hypocrite you were being – you start flying off the handle.
Now you’re just backpedaling and playing the victim because you’ve stuck your own foot in your mouth and embarrassed yourself. So personally I could care less if you’re all butthurt about it, considering how eager you were to dish out the invective beforehand.
ATS deserves better.
It deserves members who actually think before they write, who at least take enough care to make sure they know what they’re talking about before pointing fingers and lambasting others.
As far as I’m concerned it is posts like yours - malicious AND ignorant - that create such a negative atmosphere in here. So please cry me a river now that you’ve sunk yourself in your own bleeding hypocrisy.
1. The science on climate change is actually quite solid and robust.
You act like you did.
That's the point... they are still climate scientists and don't have an opinion, but were excluded from the count. Therefore, it's not possible to say that "97% of climate scientists agree". What is so difficult for you to understand?
The same 33% of pro-AGW papers written by the surveyed scientists were the same ones that rated their papers and took the same position as they did in the papers. So I write a paper, clearly stating I think man causes climate change, you ask me in a survey, and you are surprised that my position didn't change? LOL Wow...
Among self-rated papers that stated a position on AGW, 97.2% endorsed the consensus. Among self-rated papers not expressing a position on AGW in the abstract, 53.8% were self-rated as endorsing the consensus.
A direct comparison of abstract rating versus self-rating endorsement levels for the 2142 papers that received a self-rating is shown in table 5. More than half of the abstracts that we rated as ‘No Position’ or ‘Undecided’ were rated ‘Endorse AGW’ by the paper’s authors.
It's like NOBODY CAN READ A PAPER THESE DAYS!
They didn't say that "of 32% of climate based papers that support AGW, 97% of them agree", which would have been the FACTS and not a bunch of spoon-fed gargage.
And folks should read the papers they pretend to understand or have read before they go around parroting numbers that they've seen in blogs and heard on TV.
originally posted by: haviahabia
It's not like conservatives are very pro business.
It's not like elites and industrialists who produce fossil fuels love money.
Nor is it likely that negative implications of pollution could impact the profit levels of these elites and industrialists.
It's not like the elites and industrialists HIRE scientists to refute evidence that could impact their profits.
Sure as hell couldn't be that conservatives aren't enlisted by these industrialists due to their love of all things business, or the fear of more government involvement...
I guess this entire contention is a mystery. lol
originally posted by: mc_squared
....
Because first of all it’s not scientists, it’s papers. What’s written in the literature is considered as a representative sample of the consensus opinion. Maybe take notes or something and write that term down - “representative sample”, because it’s going to become very important in a minute.
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