Patient Zero, Thomas Duncan And The Ebola Incubation Countdown.

Thomas Duncan departed Africa on September 19. Came to the U.S. on Sept. 20th.

On the 25th he sought medical help and was returned home, not screened for Ebola, and in contact with many people, 80 that they label as 'direct/indirect' now, could be more. He was admitted on the 28th finally, and had 3 days of exposure to the public. It could have been longer as his true onset symptoms could have been before the 24th, the day he says he felt the first symptoms.

Ebola has an incubation period of 2 days at earliest onset, to 21 days latest. Average rate/time is 8-10 days.

September 26th THROUGH October 17 for the window of "Patient One" because that would be an additional 2 days onset added for every person THEY come into contact with, and so on.

So "Patient One" would show symptoms September 26th THROUGH October 17. And based on the average, the peak window would be October 4th THROUGH 6th.

The CDC and the public in his immediate area should pay attention through those windows and be on the lookout for Patient One, because after that it's loose.

a reply to: BatheInTheFountain

Lol. Love this forum!

Duck ... and cover.
Convinced allready?
Then you'd better be very afraid.
So frightened that your going to stay indoors and especially do not contact any other human?
....right so that would put you in the exact spot TPTB want to you be.

And ya'll missed that other post (one from 29-09) stating there was a hospital in Bang Kok with a team of people who effectively have isolated the antibodies and are developing the antidote.
As we speak.

Did anybody miss that or is that just not relevant anymore?


Come on US people! Please don't let yourselfs down. Demand a sollution and keep looking for peace and liberty for all of mankind.
Don't give up now.

a reply to: BatheInTheFountain

Duncan himself helped ebola patients in Liberia on September 15, four days before flying. We don't know exactly when his symptoms showed up but he felt sick enough to seek hospitalization on the 25, right on the 10 day average.

But possibly he felt less sick on the 24th or earlier and walked around to stores, had a cold, etc. Those are the movements the CDC will be tracking to try and identify anyone he had contact with.

a reply to: BatheInTheFountain

My biggest fear is that people are being made afraid. This causes two very big problems.

1. Fear causes denial and causes a lot of people to delay reporting their symptons and seeking medical help.

2. Fear will cause many people to try to run and hide, in an attempt to either seek out those they feel they can trust or to run from those they love and care about, to hide, in a miss guided attempt to protect them.

The planet has survived numerous illnesses, plagues and outbreaks, and we survived them with far less knowledge and a much smaller medical arsenal than we have available to us now.

The most important thing we can do is to swap fear for commonsense.

Boost your immune system with healthy diet and activities. Don't under estimate the power of fresh air and sunlight.

Our bodies have a built-in defense system that we have allowed to fall into disrepair. The best thing we can do is to restore our personal defense systems and educate ourselves so we don't fall victims to irrational fear and ignorance.

The next 13-17 days are going to be closely monitored by more than just the CDC at this point. I think lots of eyes are on the area where this man lived. There is a lot of nail biting going on behind the scenes right now I'm thinking. If this starts to spread the heads of the people responsible for containment are going to roll.

originally posted by: NightSkyeB4Dawn
a reply to: BatheInTheFountain

My biggest fear is that people are being made afraid. This causes two very big problems.

I agree that on forums like this, fear is a real risk. Some folks here tend to "slightly elevate a small threat".

However, the media and government are in a process of "calm-mongering" stating that everything is under control, ebola is difficult to transmit, not being forthright with current suspected and confirmed cases, and other outright lies.

Surely there is a proper middle ground that includes proper information and preparedness, right?

a reply to: BatheInTheFountain

He probably was most likely showing symptoms and was therefore infectious on the 24th. Ebola can start as a murmur (fever and sore throat) that grows exponentially as time passes without treatment so I actually figure that the infectious period began on the 24th, which then prompted the hospital visit on the 25th. There is a possibility that he did go in on day one at the first sign of illness considering where he had come from but you never know. Sometimes people aren't the brightest bulbs.

I agree with your calculations (already figured them myself) on when a Patient One should appear if there is a patient one. There are, however, two key differences between Africa and the US. The first being that we tend to have better nourishment here than Africa and therefore, stronger immune systems. Secondly, Africa is also a site of HIV epidemic, which of course, lowers immune response dramatically. In a previous Ebola exposure in the 90's, 4 adults were exposed and found to have the Ebola virus within their systems but remained asymptomatic.

Probably my biggest concern if there should be an outbreak of Ebola in the US is the penchant for US citizens to send their sick kids to school and to go to work ill for fear of losing their jobs. Both are behaviors ripe for assuring epidemic.

Wash your hands with regular soap frequently (anti-bacterial is anti-bacterial), avoid sharing items/food, and avoiding touching your eyes and nose.