Could the Ebola Outbreak Last Forever?

If the world doesn't get the Ebola outbreak in West Africa under control quickly, the disease could become a permanent fixture in the region, spreading as routinely as malaria or the flu, the World Health Organization warns today in a new report.

…."We are concerned that without a massive increase in the response, way beyond what is being planned in scale and urgency ... it will prove impossible to bring the epidemic under control," wrote disease researchers Jeremy Farrar, of the Wellcome Trust, and Peter Piot, of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, in an accompanying editorial.

Could the Ebola Outbreak Last Forever?


This latest report was published yesterday in the New England Journal of Medicine in an article titled Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa — The First 9 Months of the Epidemic and Forward Projections.

Most Ebola patients are 15 to 44 years old, and the average age of a person infected with Ebola is 32. Men and women are infected at nearly equal rates. Of note, these demographics parallel those of the new flu's, reflecting the roles the healthy immune system and cytokine storm play in disease progression and 'cause of death.'

Some critics still believe that this epidemic will "burn itself out" just as other Ebola outbreaks have done. The idea is that there is a large but limited human population in the region, and once everyone has been infected -and either died or recovered- it will all be over.

Unfortunately, Ebola is a zoonosis - the virus bounces back and forth between animals and people just like the new bird flu's. H5N1 for example is now endemic in Asia - carried by birds, fish and other animals, and sequestered in water and soil - routinely and sporadically infecting people.

In West Africa, pigs commonly dig up Ebola victims' graves. Thing is, pigs catch Ebola and worst of all - Ebola transmission in pigs is airborne. Right now, while pigs can transmit airborne Ebola to monkeys, people seem immune to airborne transmission so far. But just wait 'til those mutations and adaptations get rolling.

Fresh Graves Point to Undercount of Ebola Toll

….…..The Ebola victims were buried in an expanding stretch of fresh muddy graves under a giant cotton tree, and the makeshift arrangements are seen as a looming threat by the residents of the slum next to it. No barrier stops the pigs rooting in the adjoining trash field from digging in the fresh Ebola graves, which residents say they often do.

Replication, Pathogenicity, Shedding, and Transmission of Zaire ebolavirus in Pigs

…. the virus can infect nonhuman primates through mucosal exposure with ebolavirus

So if you want to panic and get all up in arms, maybe start by looking at all the environmental changes we've allowed to terra-form our home planet - you know, the ones that force viruses, bacteria and other microbes to mutate, adapt and evolve.

Just so you know, we have NO immunity against the new diseases that now are constantly and rapidly evolving.

I have said and will continue to say that I think it will be a disease that will kill he planet off......not a world war or a meteor or a volcano.....it will be a disease or combination of diseases all hitting at once. I do have a close friend at the CDC here in Atlanta though, and she tells me there really is not much to worry about in countries with decent healthcare and sanitary procedures.

Its a very scary thing. A real threat that should be taken seriously by everyone. If it does make it to the US, and becomes an Epidemic, your best bet to combat this, is by limiting your interactions with people. wash hands very frequently, allow more space between people passing by. I worry that a lot of people are going to be taken by suprise if it hits America, People are so used to just going to the Doctor for vaccines and meds, and in the event of a pandemic, Doctors will become harder to find, it will be almost impossible to help everyone, and sick zones would probably have to be set up. Scary stuff

originally posted by: soficrow




In West Africa, pigs commonly dig up Ebola victims' graves. Thing is, pigs catch Ebola and worst of all - Ebola transmission in pigs is airborne. Right now, while pigs can transmit airborne Ebola to monkeys, people seem immune to airborne transmission so far. But just wait 'til those mutations and adaptations get rolling.

So if you want to panic and get all up in arms, maybe start by looking at all the environmental changes we've allowed to terra-form our home planet - you know, the ones that force viruses, bacteria and other microbes to mutate, adapt and evolve.

First of all, they need to cremate these bodies. Religion, superstition and tradition be damned. If they know that pigs are digging (and gnawing) at their loved ones' bodies, they should be okay with torching them instead.

I believe that deforestation is the main culprit in bringing out all these viruses. The more we get into the deep dark forest, the more we will see these nasty diseases "come out of the woodwork".

Can't see why not, considering the lack of medical facility's and basic hygiene in the affected areas . Just look at how efficiently HIV propagates in under educated deprived society's.

a reply to: andy06shake

The big story here has to do with Ebola's rapid mutation rate, combined with the fact that it's a zoonosis present in numerous animals, carried by bats - and airborne in pigs.

True, most blame the lack of hygiene, lack of medical facilities and religious practices - but truth is, Ebola spreads best in hospital settings. Always has.




btw - HIV/AIDS spread like wildfire in Africa because the pre-natal clinic campaign was super successful - the charity clinics re-used their needles and speculums, thereby infecting all the women. So much for Western medicine.

a reply to: soficrow

True, most blame the lack of hygiene, lack of medical facilities and religious practices - but truth is, Ebola spreads best in hospital settings. Always has.

It's expected in hospitals with little resources from poor countries.

Ebola won't affect as much in countries like the United States because we are more prepared for it. Unless Ebola mutates drastically and starts to infect in new and more effective ways.

That's the problem, the more people it infects the faster it mutates and the greater the chance it can mutate into a deadlier form.

Ebola is never going away. But there is a worst case scenario that is truly frightening. Here is a LINK to a transcript of a speech I gave about 5 years ago in a small church in Helen Ga. Pay particular attention to the section on Ebola. The worst case scenario is if the mutation that happened to the monkey Ebola were to happen to one of the human strains of Ebola. This is what has the epidemiologists so worried. The only hope for humanity and civilization as we know it is if the virus loses much of its potency when it mutates to an airborne form.

This whole Ebola outbreak,did'nt really come as a surprise to me-the fact that it's the worst outbreak ever,and no end in sight,and no telling what the endgame could look like.I was expecting this,because i got a shamanic warning,2 years ago.Something drew the Ebola virus in the sand in my yard.The husband and i were outside when i saw it-i thought i recognised it for what it was,but i did'nt want to say it.Then the husband saw it,and he said:"That's the Ebola virus" To this day we don't know who or what drew it in the sand,where we would be sure to see it-but that was a time of my life when i was daily in extremely close communion with nature and had some truly remarkable interactions with animals and plants (something i've been slacking off on lately) Since that day it never left my mind,the sign-so when i saw the news about this outbreak-i knew it was not one of the normal "flash-outbreaks" which would quickly burn itself out.

My apologies for no scientific input to your thread-just a natural shaman's experience and perspective-this one is different,and may yet be a considerable threat to the global community.That warning sign bothers me.a reply to: soficrow

originally posted by: kaylaluv

originally posted by: soficrow




In West Africa, pigs commonly dig up Ebola victims' graves. Thing is, pigs catch Ebola and worst of all - Ebola transmission in pigs is airborne. Right now, while pigs can transmit airborne Ebola to monkeys, people seem immune to airborne transmission so far. But just wait 'til those mutations and adaptations get rolling.

So if you want to panic and get all up in arms, maybe start by looking at all the environmental changes we've allowed to terra-form our home planet - you know, the ones that force viruses, bacteria and other microbes to mutate, adapt and evolve.

First of all, they need to cremate these bodies. Religion, superstition and tradition be damned. If they know that pigs are digging (and gnawing) at their loved ones' bodies, they should be okay with torching them instead.

I believe that deforestation is the main culprit in bringing out all these viruses. The more we get into the deep dark forest, the more we will see these nasty diseases "come out of the woodwork".

....But unfortunately, they don't even have enough manpower to collect all the bodies. They don't have machines to dig graves like we do, and don't have enough gravediggers to dig enough graves. (Which might help explain why the graves are so shallow). ...They probably don't have any crematoriums, never mind enough of them.

....If the bodies aren't burned at extremely high temperatures, the infectious protein bits could be released into the air, so funeral pyres don't look to be a good option either.

...I agree about deforestation, and would add that the modifications made to the molecular and nano- components of our environment are now kicking back on us.

originally posted by: danielsil18
a reply to: soficrow

True, most blame the lack of hygiene, lack of medical facilities and religious practices - but truth is, Ebola spreads best in hospital settings. Always has.

It's expected in hospitals with little resources from poor countries.

Ebola won't affect as much in countries like the United States because we are more prepared for it. Unless Ebola mutates drastically and starts to infect in new and more effective ways.

That's the problem, the more people it infects the faster it mutates and the greater the chance it can mutate into a deadlier form.

It's true we have better hospitals, but I'm not so sure we're better prepared. I do agree a few Ebola cases won't overwhelm our healthcare systems, BUT only if:

1. Ebola cases are identified immediately;
2. Healthcare workers treat every new case as a potential Ebola case; and
3. Healthcare workers use adequate protection and implement appropriate infection-protection protocols from the get-go.

FYI - The real problem with potential mutations is not that it will become more deadly - but that it will become more easily transmissible, likely less deadly, and leave survivors with long-term debilitating chronic illnesses.

I agree that this virus is not going to just disappear. If it can bounce back and forth between species of animals it will not go away. We may eventually get immunity to it, and some people may also possess some natural immunity already, but I doubt if there will be many.

It looks like a bumpy road ahead, you are right Sofi, we have to stop forcing evolution of these microbes faster than humans evolve.

a reply to: Raxoxane

...My apologies for no scientific input to your thread-just a natural shaman's experience and perspective-this one is different,and may yet be a considerable threat to the global community.

We all come by our wisdom in different ways. Some of the greatest breakthroughs came to their discoverers in dreams. I pay attention to my instincts, dreams and 'visions' too - evaluate their importance - then look to established disciplines for validation and verification. fyi - That's why I jumped on this Ebola epidemic back in March, and stuck with it despite the ongoing dismissals here and elsewhere.

originally posted by: soficrow
....If the bodies aren't burned at extremely high temperatures, the infectious protein bits could be released into the air, so funeral pyres don't look to be a good option either.

Have you got a source for this? It seems very unlikely that a sufficient 'viral load' could be delivered by this method, that is to say in efficient cremation, especially given that currently Ebola is not infectious to humans via an airborne vector.... I'd say funeral pyres would probably be a good idea for any area too remote for other options, just have set guidelines for the pyres (yep I know, these people are not following guidelines any way but still it is something that could be done) just have them consider the wind direction (for the duration of the pyre, these things take hours and hours) build the thing well away from settlements and agriculture, go overboard on the fuel (like 150% of the wood and using accelerants, petrol/diesel would do if there ain't anything cleaner) and jobs a good'un - damn site better than wild pigs eating the dead.

Airborne pig ebola virus...that's like "when pigs fly" ... almost. Perhaps it is time for a giant bacon cookout!



All joking aside, this is very serious. I have to wonder why the area has not been quarantined. It should be enter at your own risk, no chance of leaving without a quarantined period to establish a lack of infection.

a reply to: soficrow

FYI - The real problem with potential mutations is not that it will become more deadly - but that it will become more easily transmissible, likely less deadly, and leave survivors with long-term debilitating chronic illnesses.

That's what I meant but I worded it wrongly.

But I don't think Ebola will become much of a problem. We are already aware of it and it's being monitored. The poor hygiene made it worse than it should have been, but with the help of other countries it can be contained.

originally posted by: Now_Then

originally posted by: soficrow
....If the bodies aren't burned at extremely high temperatures, the infectious protein bits could be released into the air, so funeral pyres don't look to be a good option either.

Have you got a source for this? It seems very unlikely that a sufficient 'viral load' could be delivered by this method, that is to say in efficient cremation, especially given that currently Ebola is not infectious to humans via an airborne vector.... I'd say funeral pyres would probably be a good idea for any area too remote for other options, just have set guidelines for the pyres (yep I know, these people are not following guidelines any way but still it is something that could be done) just have them consider the wind direction (for the duration of the pyre, these things take hours and hours) build the thing well away from settlements and agriculture, go overboard on the fuel (like 150% of the wood and using accelerants, petrol/diesel would do if there ain't anything cleaner) and jobs a good'un - damn site better than wild pigs eating the dead.

No, I do not have a specific source, and I did say "could." I could be wrong but here's my thinking. ....As it happens, Ebola's key protein looks and acts like a prion, strongly suggesting burning might spread the disease (proteins aren't alive, so they can't be "killed"). I don't think it's the viral load that's relevant, but rather, specific proteins. Also, unlike bacteria, viruses can "re-assemble" from incomplete particles.

Long story short, this seems to be one of those things where we better make damn sure we know what we're doing before we jump in and take an action that might worsen the situation (like quarantine did).

a reply to: danielsil18

The poor hygiene made it worse than it should have been, but with the help of other countries it can be contained.

fyi - the bit about poor hygiene is the official story but the fact is, even the experts admit they don't really know a lot about Ebola transmission. That's one of the main reasons we should stop the epidemic in West Africa. You're right, it could be contained if everyone pitches in, but despite all the promises there's not so much follow-through. And the window for containment is closing.

a reply to: Now_Then

It isn't the Ebola that cannot be eliminated by cremation, it is the prion that causes the various forms of mad cow disease. Contaminated material can be burned in industrial grade incinerators and the ashes will still be infectious.

That is also covered in my speech transcript I linked to in an earlier post on this page.

Edited to add...

I just read the article linked to in a previous post on this page and find that previous wisdom about the differences between viruses and proteins may just be wrong. If the new info is right then infectious parts of the Ebola filo-virus might be able to survive incineration like prions do.

a reply to: bbracken677

...All joking aside, this is very serious. I have to wonder why the area has not been quarantined.

Maybe because Quarantine Accelerates Ebola's Spread. ....BUT. I read somewhere this am that MSF is recommending border closures - not sure if it's true or what it means.