CDC Predicts 1 Million Ebola Cases by January 2015

If no changes come, a study from the U.S. Center for Disease Control & Prevention predicts the number of cases could reach anywhere between 550,000 - 1.4 million by January.

On Tuesday, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is expected to release its own predictions for only Liberia and Sierra Leone — the two West African countries that recently have shown the steadiest and most alarming spread of cases.

The CDC calculations are based, in part, on assumptions that cases have been dramatically underreported. Other projections haven't made the same kind of attempt to quantify illnesses that may have been missed in official counts.

CDC scientists conclude there may be as many as 21,000 reported and unreported cases in just those two countries as soon as the end of this month, according to a draft version of the report obtained by The Associated Press. They also predict that the two countries could have a staggering 550,000 to 1.4 million cases by late January.

They expect the number of infected to jump to 21,000 in the next six weeks.

USA Today

unless cold temperatures , kill the virus,,,
Africa is a hot place,,not much winter there.
is there winter in Africa?

lowest Daily/Nightly averages?

going too the colder areas of Africa might help.

a reply to: BobAthome

Liberia runs along close to the equator, so I imagine it's not much of a winter there.

a reply to: BobAthome

No. Just no. Colder temperatures increase the longevity of filoviruses outside of a host. Cold temps it lasts longer on surfaces but in hot temps people sweat more. We are damned either way.


ETA: SURVIVAL OUTSIDE HOST: Filoviruses have been reported capable to survive for weeks in blood and can also survive on contaminated surfaces, particularly at low temperatures (4°C) Footnote 52 Footnote 61. One study could not recover any Ebolavirus from experimentally contaminated surfaces (plastic, metal or glass) at room temperature Footnote 61. In another study, Ebolavirus dried onto glass, polymeric silicone rubber, or painted aluminum alloy is able to survive in the dark for several hours under ambient conditions (between 20 and 250C and 30–40% relative humidity) (amount of virus reduced to 37% after 15.4 hours), but is less stable than some other viral hemorrhagic fevers (Lassa) Footnote 53. When dried in tissue culture media onto glass and stored at 4 °C, Zaire ebolavirus survived for over 50 days Footnote 61. This information is based on experimental findings only and not based on observations in nature. This information is intended to be used to support local risk assessments in a laboratory setting.


Source

a reply to: 59demon

smart virus.

The problem is, it isn't smart. Only efficient. More efficient than we realize. What do I mean?

Let me clarify. The current estimate for infection in late January is approximately 550,000 to 1.4 million human hosts. The rate of spread is exponential, doubling the number of infected every 21 days approximately.

For round numbers let us just say 1 million people will have been infected with Ebola by late January. Approximately 700,000 of them will have died. 21 days later 2 million people will have been infected. 1.4 million deaths are now tallied.

What?! But 59demon...! While Ebola Zaire traditionally has a 90 percent mortality rate, this current mutation only claims slightly less than 50 percent. Surely you are confused?

No, I'm afraid not. Unfortunately the true number of deaths are not being reported thus the numbers are skewed. This just got a lot worse guys.


Ebola Death Rate 70%

a reply to: 59demon

it isn't smart. Only efficient

actually isn't being efficient,, the smartest of all efficiencies?

a reply to: 59demon

due to stagered infection dates,,,doubling the number of infected every 21 days,,

21 Days no longer appllies,,

21 Days only applied at outset,,,for tracking and statistical purposes.

It doesn't help every time they say lock down in the infected areas everyone runs for it including the infected, so it's kind of helping the spread through panic. If we try to contain the area they run for if we don't they walk around and spread it anyways kind of damned if we do and damned if we don't.

originally posted by: BobAthome
unless cold temperatures , kill the virus,,,

Africa is a hot place,,not much winter there.

is there winter in Africa?

They have rainy seasons and dry seasons in West Africa and it's the dry season thats coming up now.

a reply to: 59demon

What about less than 4c?

I mentioned a long time ago that it may not survive freezing conditions. Maybe moving to Alaska, Greenland or Siberia could save us all.

Anyways, in this report it says that the virus is pretty much contained:

A total of 2,793 people have now died from Ebola, the World Health Organisation said.

The organisation reported 5,762 cases across five countries, but said the Ebola outbreak was "pretty much contained" in Senegal and Nigeria.

www.itv.com...

a reply to: TruthxIsxInxThexMist

Seems the only thing I read in the article regarding prevention is for people to not "touch" one another. Also, it says more people need to be educated about Ebola. Well if this is our only hope for its containment, then I don't think it's going to stop spreading in that region anytime soon.

originally posted by: BobAthome
unless cold temperatures , kill the virus,,,
Africa is a hot place,,not much winter there.
is there winter in Africa?

lowest Daily/Nightly averages?

going too the colder areas of Africa might help.

Just two seasons there, one hot and one wet.

Now there is going to be only one… the season of Ebola.

originally posted by: BobAthome
a reply to: 59demon

smart virus.

Or smart programming? People found it deep in the jungle. It was placed there long ago like a depopulation bomb in case "civilization" encroached to far, threatening the environment.

originally posted by: intrptr

originally posted by: BobAthome
a reply to: 59demon

smart virus.

Or smart programming? People found it deep in the jungle. It was placed there long ago like a depopulation bomb in case "civilization" encroached to far, threatening the environment.

yeahhh right,,,,



"Bushmeat - from animals such as bats, antelopes, porcupines and monkeys - is a. Bushmeat – from animals such as bats, antelopes, porcupines and monkeys "




yeah,,,but hey reality is so much harder too accept,,,