Mt. Rainier Volcano: Long Period Events Continuing- This is Unusual

We're also looking at a period of decreased solar activity, and if you look at historical record, there is a correlation between decreased solar activity, solar minimums, and increased volcanic activity.

Just remember that correlation != causation though, so there really is no way to know if the correlation is actually related or just a happy coincidence between two long-running cycles, one earth-bound and the other solar.

a reply to: ketsuko

It would make sense though wouldn't it? Earth's magnetic field being manipulated by space weather, then having a direct effect on direction of magma, even though the magma itself isn't magnetic, the paths created for the magma would be directed by the cooled surface magma, which is created through the magnetic field at any point in time..?

A bump for TA
Thanks for keepin the watch

originally posted by: DAZ21
a reply to: ElectricUniverse

In your thread that you referenced, you talk about the movement of the magma plumes maybe causing a weakening of the earths magnetic field. But I've read that;

...
Could it not be that the recent CME, has manipulated the magnetic field, and this is then forcing the movement of magma into the areas of magnetic field weakness? Maybe that could explain the magma plumes and increased activity of these various volcanoes.

Well, yes and no. The Sun does affect the Earth's core and both the Earth's core and the Sun affect the Earth's magnetic field. But the increase in the weakening of Earth's magnetic field which intensified even more recently has been ongoing for 7 months now.

The Earth's magnetic field weakening has intensified for the past 7 months, so this could not have happened just because one CME event. It's been an ongoing event. Not only has the weakening increased and it's now 10 times worse than it used to be, but also the speed in which magnetic north is moving towards Siberia has intensified. Those two changes are occurring because the Earth's core has also been changing and lava plumes have moved upwards on the North American and south American plates. The rapid acceleration of magnetic north towards Siberia could only have been caused by another lava plume moving upwards in Greenland which is what ahs caused the increase seismic and volcanic events of the Bardarbunga volcano.

Volcanic activity has also picked up elsewhere in other areas, including Far-Eastern Russian Volcano Spews Ash Over 40 Kilometers

Also among others.

...
Slamet volcano (Central Java, Indonesia): eruption increases, powerful strombolian explosions

Activity at the volcano has increased and VSI raised the alert level to "siaga", 3 on a scale of 1-4. The mild strombolian activity which had been going on for months at the volcano has become more and more intense since the beginning of September. Some explosions in the past days have been strong enough to eject incandescent material to all over the summit cone of the volcano.
...
Kilauea volcano update: Lava slows, misses first homes for now
"Between September 10 and 12, the June 27th flow advanced north-northeastward at an average rate of 250 m/day (820 ft/day). By the afternoon of September 12, the flow had advanced approximately 14.9 km (9.3 miles) straight-line distance from the vent, or to within 170 m (560 ft) of the boundary between the Wao Kele o Puna Forest Reserve and the northwest corner of Kaohe Homesteads. At the average rate of advancement of 250 m/day (820 ft/day) since September 10, we project that lava could flow from its current location into the northwest part of Kaohe Homesteads within a day, and to the Pāhoa Village Road (government road) in Pāhoa within 20 days" if there are no major changes.

www.volcanodiscovery.com...

k well, couple things to report:

1) This activity appears to have subsided almost entirely in the last 8 hours or so. That's GOOD. But can't let the guard down just yet.

2) I wrote to one of my scientific contacts about this, and shared the pics. No comment on the tornillo yet, but I was directed to a particular document, and I believe it is the source document of Oli's chart above- I think. Will post it if I can share it- finding out about that... EDIT: Yes can post it, so here:

earthweb.ess.washington.edu...

To make a long story short, no one seems to be surprised at these events, and apparently they are writing them off as glacier-induced. At least that's what I am led to believe so far. Perhaps PNSN will have a blog comment coming up soon on them- we'll see. But the best news is- they've stopped! - for now...

a reply to: TrueAmerican

Well if I were in charge of looking at all those volcanoes that would be the last thing I would blame it on given the time of year. Spring and middle of winter yeah but with all the recent volcanoes waking up I would keep my eyeballs glued to this sucker since it will kill the most people in the U.S. if it even wakes up at all. One Lahore in the right area and the death toll would be massive.

I am sure you know that but these USGS guys really need to pay attention to whats going on and be on the ball cause way too many people depend on them.

I for one thank you for all your hard work, keeping us informed so we can warn our loved ones if need be or at least tell them to be alert.

a reply to: TrueAmerican

If they could only plumb into it with an oil drilling platform like they are doing at Campi flegrei in Italy, to that newly discovered volcano that is like Yellowstone but not as big. They could monitor the CO2 and Sulfur levels.

A Vulcanologist has had luck monitoring and predicting the volcano at Stromboli. He found that small eruptions are proceeded by increases in Sulfur gases but when the C02 increases the eruption will be big. He had them close off the mountain to tourist and then two days later a big eruption happened. Since the volcano is pretty regular like Kilauea in Hawaii he was able to come to that conclusion however he is not sure all volcano's act that way, he wont know until more Vulcanologist try his test and find out.

I think in my scientific opinion based on my studies, that the shaking of the earth causes gases to be released from the lava, we all know gas rises. The former lava tubes from previous eruptions are like Glass, having been in some old one, they are quiet smooth. The tubes themselves would not allow the gases to escape through to the outer earth fast enough. When the gas pressure gets to a certain point it blows its top like a shook soda bottle.

The trick is to safely monitor the pressure and estimate how much it takes to move the core rock that is between the known tube and the outside. Then you have your Volcano prediction nailed down.

Now hopefully they can safely drill into this lava tube 2 miles down at Campi flegrei and not cause an eruption. If they get it done in the next year we will be very good at predicting these monsters very soon. I wonder what the pressures will end up being? I imagine right before an eruption they will be incredible pressures. Even 10 psi is a lot when your talking a vast area. Hell a nuclear blast 30 miles away can flatten your house at 8 psi or less.

Well between Mt Rainer and considering Mt ST Helene's which are really not all that far away from each other, and what another 3 mountains/volcanoes in Washington state alone, and if you go right on down to Oregon you have Mt Hood another volcano I believe not that far from the border, or the other mountains/volcanoes in WA state alone, and then there are still some volcanoes in Oregon I am to lazy to look up, or cant remember there names, and this all continues right on down to California and its volcanoes. In all, its like there all sitting ducks all right in a row, and all the way down on the fault line along the whole west coast.

But I am not sure, however I think the Washington State volcanoes are considered to be the most active, or most recently active ones. Not sure on that so dont quote me. In any case my parents were once looking for houses, not anytime soon but they had me looking for places in the coming years ie retirement and such, and one of the areas and homes they were looking at was not that far from Mt Rainer.

Funny how all this stuff slipped my mind on the whole area when looking at things in the area for them, I suppose I should advise them that when and if they actually go through with the whole thing and if in some foreseeable future may actually move down there, they or we should consider on getting some Volcano Insurance.

a reply to: DAZ21

They think that over 50% of earths geothernal energy is produced from radioactive decay of elements located in the mantle but didn't realize until recently that radioactive decay of elements on earth are influenced by the sun link. So when sun goes quite, the earth heats up!

a reply to: glend

Fascinating post Glend. I referenced it over in Quake watch.

Perhaps you would like to duplicate it in the Volcano watch thread here.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

Star material for sure.

P

Another update:

I contacted a different scientific contact this time, for an opinion on that tornillo signature. The reply was that they agreed it LOOKED like one, but it wasn't one, in their opinion. More technical details followed of why they didn't think it was one.

So- glacier induced long period events, and wild signatures that look like tornillos, but aren't. Ok. We learn new things everyday here at ATS. But I take it in stride. The events at Rainier seemed to have come and gone, and that would be consistent with short slips over a short time period of a glacier. If it WAS seismic, chances are we'd still be seeing additional seismic activity, over and above normal background levels. But we aren't. Soooooooo-

Case closed in my book. I am satisfied we don't have an emergency at Rainier. But I be a watchin.

originally posted by: Aleister
a reply to: TrueAmerican

What is the worse case scenario? Would the volcano shoot out one side, like St. Helens, or blow upwards? When was the last time this volcano exploded, and is there any timeline that it is adhered to in the past? Thanks for the updates.

Since I live at the base of the mountain I can say the last time it blew, it blew from south side of the mountain

By buddy would have a front door view if it goes, From that vantage point you can see the weak side so it only stands to reason it would blow up on the weakest side

I hope this is NOT the big one. We have not heard anything locally so thanks for posting.

Worse case - It blows up, the glacier melts and everything down stream is GONE.

That includes:
Seattle
Tacoma
Renton - Boeing Plant
Bellvue - By BY Microsoft

The entire valley from Orting to the puget sound

100's of 1000's dead

I hope this helps a bit

originally posted by: ketsuko
Is Rainier the one that can take out small towns all the way out to the bay or is that Hood? I remember seeing how they do drills for it is erupts, but there are several cities in the path of mudflows that would only have 15 to 20 minutes tops to get to high ground if it goes. NOT GOOD. I hope I'm thinking about Hood.

No you are talking about Rainier

may towns in the path, the problem with the town in which you speak (Orting) this is a one lane in one lane out type of town which you switch back and forth over the current river that flows from the mountains several time to get out

not good but a fantastic view should it go

a reply to: TrueAmerican

I wouldn't close the book yet. Seismic activity seems to be increasing once again in other areas, including in Alaska, Central America and south America. We should continue to watch the activity and see what happens, the activity at Mt Rainier could also pick up.

a reply to: TrueAmerican
Thanks for digging up second and third opinions TA.

I'm "mostly" satisfied that it is just the glaciers stick-slipping downhill. There have been a couple of microseisms located directly under the volcano this past month, between 2-4 kms deep (relative to sea level).


(graph generated using the "analyze" feature on this page. It shows all earthquakes in the past 30 days within 10 kms of the Rainier crater, looking from west to east.)

The weather at Camp Muir has taken a wild turn over the past 4 days. From 60°F at noon on the 20th with calm winds at 10,110' elevation, to last night's 35° and 110 mph winds.
Maybe the warm snap allowed the glacier to do some sliding?

originally posted by: Olivine
Maybe the warm snap allowed the glacier to do some sliding?

That, and maybe perhaps all those wildfires around Weed could have affected air temperature somewhat. That's pretty close to Rainier.

I'm pretty much done with this folks, unless I see something else on live spectro. But even if those happen again, I think the relatively low amplitudes (compared to quakes) will be my guiding light. Ice still transmits seismic waves, so yeah, I know to beware of ice masking signatures. But these are no threat- unless of course the glacier comes tumbling down the hill.

a reply to: TrueAmerican
Nope, Weed is just a few miles N and W of Mt. Shasta. (You must have been thinking about that glacial movement) I've been in mourning for my old stomping grounds the past 2 weeks--such beautiful areas, toasted by fire.

originally posted by: Patriotsrevenge

If they could only plumb into it with an oil drilling platform like they are doing at Campi flegrei in Italy, to that newly discovered volcano that is like Yellowstone but not as big.

Now hopefully they can safely drill into this lava tube 2 miles down at Campi flegrei and not cause an eruption.

Well, at least if they fail they won't know it until they are orbiting the planet with their feet on fire

a reply to: Olivine

lol, yeah, you're right, got the two confused. Sorry.

Too many seismograms, not enough video games. Maybe I WILL buy that uber expensive racing wheel... Need a break from all this. See the swarms at LV? Fine! Blow all to hell! I don't care anymore! Gotta finish my sci-fi thriller book (in my signature) anyways- almost done. Bye bye for a while, unless I got something worth reporting.

a reply to: TrueAmerican

Enjoy your break TA and till next episode of "#t nearly happend but we're lucky again this time".