Ebola worst case scenario article

Hi found this article and thought it is interesting .

rt.com...

armakirais

Let me help you here... I see you are new here.. you need to add more thoughts or opinions to your thread...

Well, this news is staggering

As of Sunday, there were 5335 probable, confirmed and suspected cases of Ebola across Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Nigeria and Senegal. Of those, 2622 people have died, the World Health Organization (WHO) announced Thursday.

The CDC’s report, which is scheduled to be released next week, will estimate how many people the disease will infect by the end of January, assuming no additional aid or intervention by governments and relief agencies occurs.

The current projection of 550,000 cases is currently being reviewed by researchers, and may change, two people familiar with its contents, who asked to remain anonymous because it isn’t yet public, told Bloomberg.

“In the three weeks since then the numbers have doubled, so all three countries are still reporting cases on a steep upward curve,” Epstein said in a phone interview on Friday. “We don’t have a good idea of how big this epidemic will become.”

If the response is not increased, there may be as many as 5,000 new cases a week, he said.

Over half a million people by January possibly. This could really get out of hand to where it could not be contained. Maybe it already has.
RT News

and the scary part is, it is only an airplane ride away.
The onset of the symptoms are so common I shudder to think how fast this can and will spread.

originally posted by: grumpydaysleeper
and the scary part is, it is only an airplane ride away.
The onset of the symptoms are so common I shudder to think how fast this can and will spread.

Ya, people would think they had the flu.

a reply to: tinker9917

Thank you tinker

armakirais

originally posted by: tinker9917
Let me help you here... I see you are new here.. you need to add more thoughts or opinions to your thread...

Well, this news is staggering

As of Sunday, there were 5335 probable, confirmed and suspected cases of Ebola across Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Nigeria and Senegal. Of those, 2622 people have died, the World Health Organization (WHO) announced Thursday.

The CDC’s report, which is scheduled to be released next week, will estimate how many people the disease will infect by the end of January, assuming no additional aid or intervention by governments and relief agencies occurs.

The current projection of 550,000 cases is currently being reviewed by researchers, and may change, two people familiar with its contents, who asked to remain anonymous because it isn’t yet public, told Bloomberg.

“In the three weeks since then the numbers have doubled, so all three countries are still reporting cases on a steep upward curve,” Epstein said in a phone interview on Friday. “We don’t have a good idea of how big this epidemic will become.”

If the response is not increased, there may be as many as 5,000 new cases a week, he said.

Over half a million people by January possibly. This could really get out of hand to where it could not be contained. Maybe it already has.
RT News

Very Kind of you Tinker!

originally posted by: armakirais
a reply to: tinker9917

Thank you tinker

armakirais

You are welcome

Good catch! The White House has also now responded to questions about the leaked WHO projection [550,000 cases by the end of January 2015]:

Asked about the CDC projection, White House press secretary Josh Earnest said the U.S. commitment of $1 billion for the response to Ebola will have the effect of spurring other nations to increase their assistance.

“The projections you’re citing are long-term projections,” Earnest said yesterday. “That’s why the president was demonstrating a sense of urgency” when he spoke about the outbreak earlier this week.

SOURCE: Bloomberg

I've updated the Ebola projection charts with this leaked CDC projection so people can see what this looks like in comparison to the projections I've been doing on the Ebola charts thread. All 4 charts are in one large graphic. Click the graphic if you want to view it larger. If your browser automatically downsizes large graphics, you may have to click it a second time once the graphic loads to view it full-sized [1217(w) x 2928(h)].

See more on the Ebola Charts thread

a reply to: ikonoklast

That graph is scary. According to the projection lines, we're looking at a MILLION infections by the end of February.
And... the more infections there are, the more subsequent infections there will be.

I think people really should prepare for this reaching home... just in case.

a reply to: tinker9917

Mid February because it is working on a 3 week double.

Not been picky just at that point a week would be a massive jump in numbers

Worked a 3 week double from the 21 days later thread and it is only 496 away from the CDC end of January.
aug 15 2127
sep 05 4293
sep 26 8586
oct 17 17172
nov 07 34344
nov 28 68688
dec 19 137376
jan 09 274752
jan 30 549504
feb 20 1099008
mar 13 2198016
apr 03 4396032
apr 24 8792064
may 15 17584128
jun 05 35168256
jun 26 70336512
jul 17 140673024
aug 07 281346048
aug 28 562692096

Take it they just rounded it up to 550,000 to the end of January.

originally posted by: tinker9917
a reply to: ikonoklast

That graph is scary. According to the projection lines, we're looking at a MILLION infections by the end of February.
And... the more infections there are, the more subsequent infections there will be.

I think people really should prepare for this reaching home... just in case.

You are doing such an awesome job !!! OOps wrong button I actually was refering to ikonoklast!

armakirais

a reply to: joho99
So, it looks like a doubling of infections every 30 days or so? Or am I thinking wrong...?

a reply to: ikonoklast


YOu are doing an awesome job . The work you put in is very much appreciated !


armakirais

I think is is more in the 21-22 days doubling time , but ikonoklast knows better .


armakirais

a reply to: tinker9917
21 days without intervention.

But it should slow down now that they are starting to throw money+people+equipment at it.

Unless they have vastly underestimated the real number by more than what they actually think the real number is.

We will know in a few months.

Sierra Leone might be a real indication of the numbers if they publish the real numbers once they have done a count after the 4 days lock down.

a reply to: joho99


I think i read somewhere that they are thinking the real number is about 3 X more that what is accounted for .


armakirais

a reply to: armakirais

Officially they are thinking it will be 20%


But i would not call 20% vastly underestimated.

a reply to: tinker9917

I wonder how much it is underestimated since the clinics are full and people are simply sent home to die/infect other family members? Can they really project these numbers accurately?

originally posted by: joho99
a reply to: armakirais

Officially they are thinking it will be 20%


But i would not call 20% vastly underestimated.

Or take that worst case and multiply by x10.

Sad, because the infected can be cured, proven..

It can be contained, and vaccinated against.... No, not sad, criminal!

Africa, because of famine, extreme poverty, overpopulation, high birth rates etc. It seems is not worthy for whatever reason...

If there is an outbreak in a major population in the western countries, especially the USA... Watch how quickly it gets wiped out...