posted on Sep, 8 2014 @ 07:35 PM
What many people fail to realize is that there is no "winning" a modern war between superpowers, and that modern leaders, Putin included, are not
apt to risk their entire nations on a war which they have very little chance of winning. If Putin invades one of these border countries, and the west
responds militarily, will he back down? If he does, that means he was bluffing to a certain extent. If not, then he is prepared for war. So only one
of two things will happen at this point. Either one army or the other will gain the upper hand. A war is not likely to go nuclear at this point. But
whichever side begins to get pushed back will be on the defensive, and this is when the idea of nuclear war starts to gain traction. It still is not
likely to happen at that point, but it depends on what occurs.
If Russia gets pushed back into their country, they can either continue fighting, in which case the western countries might continue the push into
Russia. This is when nuclear war starts getting even more likely. Eventually, when one force has pushed far into another and is beating the other
force, the losing force only has the nuclear option. Many things could happen that could avoid nuclear war, especially the signing of a treaty or
agreement to end hostilities, but it all depends. It is much easier to justify a nuclear strike when you are at war in the first place, and especially
if you are losing. But I contend that the possibility of nuclear war means that it is less likely that two nuclear nations will embroil themselves in
conflict. I think that if Putin bluffs and is called, he will back down. But I don't think he will put himself in that position unless he is prepared
for all out war, which I do not think he is. He doesn't want to invade a country, have the west respond, which forces him to escalate to maintain the
appearance of strength...Which I think is important to him.
So the only way he wins is to avoid pushing the west into conflict. The only way to win is not to play. That is my take anyway, but we are in
uncharted territory here. It is possible only to take the WWII comparisons so far, because they did not have the entire gamut of nuclear strategies to
consider.