UN to Set Up Ebola Crisis Center, Aims to Stop Spread in 6-9 Months

a reply to: soficrow

You know whats bothering me at this moment. Africa Nations Cup!! It starts today and there will be fans travelling around Africa to watch games. now imagine if just a handful of people from those Country's have Ebola.

Saturdays Games:

Ivory Coast v Sierra Leone
DR Congo v Cameroon,
Nigeria v Congo,


Wednesdays Games:

Sierra Leone v DR Congo
Congo v Sudan
Uganda v Guinea
Botswana v Senegal
South Africa v Nigeria

a reply to: soficrow

I think it is little too late now.

They should have done something about it in February.

bit pathetic... shutting the gate AFTER the horse has escaped

originally posted by: Thurisaz
a reply to: soficrow

....They should have done something about it in February.

bit pathetic... shutting the gate AFTER the horse has escaped

All true - but I hope it is not little too late now. ....Best to keep our chins up. Still, looks like ISIS is a much bigger political-budget priority. And the cost-benefit analysis on Ebola is win-win either way for the Big Boyz.

a reply to: TruthxIsxInxThexMist

Um hmm. It's a hard choice - stop living, or go on as best you can. ....fyi - Sierra Leone just called a 3 or 4-day 'quarantine-lockdown' where people will not be allowed to leave their homes so medical people can go around and take a kind of "infected census." ...It's set for Sept. 19 to 21 - after the games.

originally posted by: soficrow
a reply to: TruthxIsxInxThexMist

Um hmm. It's a hard choice - stop living, or go on as best you can. ....fyi - Sierra Leone just called a 3 or 4-day 'quarantine-lockdown' where people will not be allowed to leave their homes so medical people can go around and take a kind of "infected census." ...It's set for Sept. 19 to 21 - after the games.

Would be better for a 21 day lock down.

But would require some sort of food distribution net work set up.

a reply to: new_here

Too late I think. As much as anything it's Ebola v/s ISIS - for budget allocations and the required attention/support. ...The money is gone.

And they would have done a risk-benefit analysis:

* Decimated and traumatized populations are easier to control.

* A 50% population reduction in Africa and other 'undeveloped' nations is an "acceptable" loss.

* A 20% population reduction in developed nations is also deemed "acceptable." [Note one analysis says that Ebola is mutating to become more easily transmissible and less fatal - and suggests the fatality rate might drop to 5%. Still horrific, with horrendous impacts, but "better."]

originally posted by: soficrow
a reply to: TruthxIsxInxThexMist

Um hmm. It's a hard choice - stop living, or go on as best you can. ....fyi - Sierra Leone just called a 3 or 4-day 'quarantine-lockdown' where people will not be allowed to leave their homes so medical people can go around and take a kind of "infected census." ...It's set for Sept. 19 to 21 - after the games.

Exactly. That lockdown is a few weeks away. Could be too late by then.

I think its a bad idea to go ahead with those games at this time. Those ones mentioned anyway, they could be played at a later date or cancelled altogether this event and see what the situation is next year. Or play those games I mentioned behind closed doors without supporters.

They are doing such a bang up job!

The UN wants to stop the spread...in 6 to 9 months. After exponential increase over that duration, exactly what do they think they will be stopping?

a reply to: Vroomfondel

One does wonder. ....To be fair - the hope is that immediate action will prevent further exponential increases.

a reply to: Vroomfondel

Well, in 6-9 months the virus could run out of hosts to infect in those areas as some projections have the total number of cases to.be greater than the populations of those countries.

That would effectively halt the spread, at least in those countries.

a reply to: jadedANDcynical

It would if diseases stopped at the political borders, but they don't - and there is no way to contain the spread to those 3 countries. The borders are "porous." To say the least. ...I grew up on the US-Canada border - and none of us took the international boundary very seriously. We "crossed the line" on dates, and when we missed curfew and the border was "closed" - we just jumped the barrier. I have no doubt jumping the border is much easier in the jungle, and that people are fairly unaware that it even exists. Until they hit a town.

UPDATE

From Bad to Worse With Ebola

By THE EDITORIAL BOARD NYTimes
SEPT. 6, 2014

The widening epidemic of Ebola in West Africa looks worse with each passing day. The outbreaks in the hardest-hit countries — Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone — have outstripped the ability of humanitarian groups and fragile government health systems to treat the sick and slow the spread.

A panicky effort to quarantine a large slum in Monrovia, Liberia, using troops to keep people penned in, proved a disastrous failure that probably made things worse. A shortage of protective clothing for health care workers treating sick patients in Sierra Leone led nurses to strike last week in a desperate effort to get more help. The virus has begun to spread to other countries where there is always a danger that it could ignite a new round of outbreaks.

In separate statements last week, officials of the World Health Organization, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the medical charity Doctors Without Borders warned that the outbreak is spreading out of control. W.H.O. leaders have said the outbreak in West Africa could be stopped in six to nine months, but only if a “massive” global response, which is nowhere in sight, is carried out.

….The most shocking news of the week was how ill-prepared the W.H.O. was to organize an effective response. As Sheri Fink reported in The Times on Thursday, the agency had been weakened by harsh budget cuts in recent years and did not have the staff or ability to flood the Ebola zone. Its emergency response units have been slashed, veterans who led previous fights against Ebola have left, and scores of positions have been eliminated.

….Given the W.H.O.’s weaknesses, the White House ought to consider whether the United States should take the lead.

Well, well. Step one.

Obama Warns Ebola Outbreak Could Worsen

President Barack Obama says helping contain the current Ebola outbreak in West Africa is a U.S. national security priority but it’s going to be a long and difficult task.

He says the American military will be helping set up isolation units and equipment there and providing security for public health workers flocking in from around the world.

….Obama warned that if the virus spreads it could mutate and conceivably reach the United States and become a serious public health issue, although he said ‘‘it shouldn’t reach our shores.’’

Obama: U.S. must fight Ebola now or face long-term risk

…."If we don't make that effort now, and this spreads not just through Africa but other parts of the world, there's the prospect then that the virus mutates. It becomes more easily transmittable," he said in the interview broadcast on Sunday.

Ebola is a 'national security priority,' Obama says

….Obama cautioned that inaction could have dire consequences.

"If we don't make that effort now, and this spreads not just through Africa but other parts of the world, there's the prospect then that the virus mutates. It becomes more easily transmittable. And then it could be a serious danger to the United States," Obama said.

a reply to: soficrow

Obama warns outbreak could worsen

I was sitting at a bar in chilis when I saw this headline come across my search update and said out loud, "no ish sherlock, you effing moron..." which got a hearty chuckle.

Better late than never i suppose?

Now what matters is if actions match words.

a reply to: jadedANDcynical

True. Looks like it's up to Congress - which means public pressure?

Obama: U.S. military to provide equipment, resources to battle Ebola epidemic in Africa

...[Doctors Without Borders (MSF)] has long ­opposed military involvement by governments, but its international president, Joanne Liu, said the situation had become so desperate that it was now appealing for military assets to provide critical logistical and operational support. Priorities include the mass expansion of isolation centers, air bridges to move personnel and equipment to and within the most affected countries, mobile laboratories for testing and diagnosis, and building a regional network of field hospitals to treat suspected or infected medical personnel.

Only the military, Liu said in an interview Friday, has the rapid- deployment capability and chain-of-command structure necessary now. “Because the response has been so slow, we now have to switch to a mass-casualty response,” she said.

....The Obama administration has also asked Congress for an additional $88 million to send more CDC personnel and lab supplies and equipment, Price said. The United States is providing logistical and operational support, including hundreds of thousands of units of personal protective equipment, mobile labs, water-treatment units, disinfectant, basic supplies and food assistance, he said. If Congress approves the additional funding, it will bring the U.S. total commitment to more than $250 million.

....But [Laurie Garrett] said Obama’s comment signals “that — at last — we’re moving from ‘should we’ to ‘how much, where, and doing what’ — and this could be a game-changer.”

And btw -

Ebola in India: Over 1,000 Indians being tracked for Ebola
Editorial Team September 8, 2014

.

UPDATE

U.S. Military Involvement in Ebola Fight is Minimal

On Sunday President Barack Obama raised expectations that the U.S. military will help fight the deadly Ebola outbreak ravaging West Africa. But on Monday the Pentagon said it is merely filling a request for one field-deployable, 25-bed hospital -- a drop in the bucket toward stemming the epidemic, according to experts.

The Pentagon will send the hospital to Monrovia, the capital of Liberia, the country hardest hit by Ebola. The U.S. military will set up the hospital, stockpile it, and then hand it over to the Liberian government to operate, Pentagon spokesman Col. Steve Warren said at the Pentagon Monday.

"No U.S. personnel will be providing patient care," he clarified.

The $22 million hospital is intended for health care workers to use as a facility for themselves if they get sick while treating patients. The Pentagon is still working out the plan's details, but Warren said, "It is a top priority and we expect it to get there rapidly."

The Pentagon says it is fulfilling the sole U.S. Agency for International Development request it has received. A spokesperson for USAID did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

….organizations such as Doctors Without Borders (also known by its French acronym, MSF) say it would be even more helpful if the U.S. military deployed personnel who have valuable expertise in managing health crises.

"More beds are very useful but what would be even more useful is if the United States sent experts who could run these facilities," said Sophie Delaunay, the executive director of MSF in the United States.

The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that 980 additional Ebola treatment center beds are required, 760 of those for Monrovia alone. And that requirement is likely to go up as the disease spreads. Right now, Guinea and Sierra Leone have only 130 beds each, while Liberia has 314, according to the WHO.

This means that sick patients and their families are being turned away at clinics. These patients go untreated, making their chances of survival extremely unlikely. Furthermore, without being quarantined, they can infect more people.

….USAID will spend $75 million to build 10 Ebola treatment facilities with up to 100 beds each as part of a new $100 million aid package.

USAID's pledge of 1,000 beds would meet today's needs, Delaunay said, but she's very concerned that clinics will be built and then left to some other organization or government to operate.

"This will take weeks, if not months, and we don't have that kind of time," she said.

MSF has 450 beds across its centers in Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea, and they are "completely overwhelmed, with sick and dead patients on the doorstep every morning," Delaunay said. The people already fighting the disease on the ground are stretched to capacity; more people are needed, she said.

MSF called for military medics to get involved because they have the expertise and training to manage biohazards such as the Ebola outbreak, Delaunay said.

MSF's total budget for fighting Ebola in the three hardest-hit countries is roughly $22 million, the same cost as the hospital the Pentagon is providing, but Delaunay pointed out that MSF relies on volunteers in the field.

But, she said, Ebola care is not expensive because there is no cure. Instead, it relies on rigorous and disciplined isolation of patients with the disease as well as careful management of infected dead bodies.

Death toll has risen pretty sharply:

Ebola death toll rises to at least 2,296: WHO

uk.reuters.com...

The death toll from the worst Ebola outbreak in history has risen to at least 2,296 out of 4,293 cases in five West African countries, the World Health Organization said on Tuesday.

The figures show almost 200 new deaths from the disease but were as of Sept. 6, meaning that they represent only one day since the WHO's previous update, which related to Sept 5.

I willing to bet that the Virus spreads to other Country's in Africa due to those 'Football Matches' being played. We will see 'cases' turning up.... you watch.

a reply to: soficrow

total end of September: 7,470 total cases

predicted:

Yes, absolutely - cases are more than doubling each month, and we're at 3,968 cases now. Here's how it plays at a 2.3 increase each month: by end-September .......

.....8,475

about 1,100 cases per week average through September)


Not bad Soficrow,,little high though,,

Pardon my disbelief, but they've already had six to nine months.

And then there's this from the good ole CDC and WaPo: CDC: Ebola could infect 1.4 million in Liberia and Sierra Leone by end of January

That's potentially four of those months right there. So once this peak hits (and may well not even be the peak, that leaves their grandiose plan what, two to five months to climb out of a hole it took 13 monnths to climb into.

I suck at math but okay enough to see that they many well be full of it.

a reply to: BobAthome

Shucks thanks BobAthome. I guess.