New study finds 99.999 percent certainty humans are causing global warming

Thanks to Mianeye, a mention of this effect can be found Here.

originally posted by: Kali74
a reply to: SonOfTheLawOfOne

I edited before you made this post. My arguments aren't straw man, just observations. I can stand the holes in AGW theory just fine if they're accurate. There's arguments for and against homogenizing data but you are asserting that when climate scientists do it that it's from a desire to promote AGW Theory, that it's dishonest when it isn't. It's widely acceptable and practiced throughout all of science so why is it only climate science that is dishonest in your opinion?

I don't feel that I am asserting that climate scientists homogenize data for any one reason or another, for or against climate change. I also don't believe that homogenized data is wrong in any field of work. I do believe it is being abused by climate science in particular.

I'm asserting, and stated in a prior post, that this happens frequently, across several disciplines and industries, and that in some cases, the scientists are burned by it because they themselves don't always come up with the data they use in models, they often outsource the obtaining of the data used for a larger model. (ie - ClimateGate)

My focus on this specific topic happens to be on the fact that it occurs often with climate science, and is demonstrated often, as I have tried to illustrate with examples and sources.

As I said earlier, this problem occurs everywhere, and it's a recognized and well-known problem. When we model data, we come across this constantly and that's why I referred you to the problem of smoothing over a time series. There are plenty of cases where smoothing and filtering are perfect for their applications, and where homogenizing data is necessary... but doing so over a period of time loses important facts about the data, and this is critically important with CO2 and temperature.

In cases of climate, smoothing the line hides years that had record high temperatures by direct measurement, but when a filter is applied, they disappear as "noise". This is what leads to poor modeling, which leads to poor decision making on the part of the modelers.

For example, saying that it was the hottest year on record, when your record has been smoothed to remove spikes, is not the same as having a year on the record that was actually much hotter, but was not removed from the record by the smoothing or filtering.

That is why I pointed you to Beck's paper, which has its own flaws and counter-arguments, but I choose not to throw out the baby with the bath water, and that paper is full of good information that I apply to my own conclusions. You don't have to read it, but you have to be at least a little curious.

~Namaste

a reply to: beezzer
I remember a statistics book that I once read that opened with a quote popularized my Mark Twain:

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

Dex

Why is this not labeled HOAX?

A mod should know better.

Yes, climate change is real.

Thank you sun, earth and axis tilt.

New study finds 99.999 percent certainty humans are causing global warming

For those few that are finding it hard to understand the percentage and how that translates it means there is one chance in 100,000 that man hasn't contributed to the warming trend.

Just thought I should explain that a little given some of the replies so far.

For the extreme optimist thats not bad. It is far better odds than say hitting the lottery.

a reply to: Grimpachi

It should read:

New study finds 99.999 percent certainty humans are causing a percentage of global warming

...to be completely accurate.

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

Yeah...it can be read like that.

The only reason I posted though was because some posters seemed to be having a hard time understanding what the percentage meant or translated as.

originally posted by: Grimpachi
The only reason I posted though was because some posters seemed to be having a hard time understanding what the percentage meant or translated as.

Gotcha.

Climate change has been happening for the last 12,000 years since the end of the Ice Age. Sea levels rose more than 150 feet before Roman times. The only thing we're doing is accelerating the process.

I'm sorry if that's An Inconvenient Truth.

a reply to: tothetenthpower

How about ASAP, every human that doesnt believe in human caused global warming, signs a contract, that states they must dedicate the rest of their lives, by the democratic force of all non signers, to dedicate their lives to doing whatever must be done in attempts to reverse human caused global warming, when it is proven that there exists sufficient and dangerous human caused global warming?

its time for people to put their money where their mouth is, and be held accountable for the power their collective stupidity yields over other stupid people.

a reply to: ImaFungi



Sounds very Progressive.Collective

I say head for the hills !!

Make final arrangements NOW !!

a reply to: ImaFungi

And how about the flip side? If it turns out to be not true the rest of you need to fan me and feed me grapes for the remainder of my days.

Which will of course be long since I would not have been engulfed in a costal catastrophe.

originally posted by: ImaFungi
a reply to: tothetenthpower

How about ASAP, every human that doesnt believe in human caused global warming, signs a contract, that states they must dedicate the rest of their lives, by the democratic force of all non signers, to dedicate their lives to doing whatever must be done in attempts to reverse human caused global warming, when it is proven that there exists sufficient and dangerous human caused global warming?

its time for people to put their money where their mouth is, and be held accountable for the power their collective stupidity yields over other stupid people.

And conversely, if there is never any sufficient and dangerous human caused global warming evidence, all ACW believers will need to sign a contract to donate all their time and money, the rest of their lives, toward the care and feeding of the poor saps that were right all along and chastised for providing facts over fear and emotion.

a reply to: CornShucker

Beautiful, i love that link

Sad that so many ignore it.....

a reply to: tothetenthpower

NO WAY ! FOX'NEWS" says otherwise. Koch brothers say otherwise. Rush L says otherwise. How could they possibly be wrong? Oh, wait, I know how.....$$$.

originally posted by: TownCryer
a reply to: tothetenthpower

NO WAY ! FOX'NEWS" says otherwise. Koch brothers say otherwise. Rush L says otherwise. How could they possibly be wrong? Oh, wait, I know how.....$$$.

Mother Nature says so.

Call out the dogs !!

a reply to: Kali74
OK. It isn't.

iceagenow.info...

www.joyfirepublishing.com...

www.rense.com...

www.abovetopsecret.com...

originally posted by: Chrisfishenstein
a reply to: tothetenthpower

which points to a close to certain probability exceeding 99.999%.

Um....how does the probability EXCEED 99.999%?

There are an infinite number of probabilities greater that 99.999%...

99.9991%, 99.9992%, 99.9993%, etc.

Though obviously there isn't much difference between all the numbers between 99.999 and 100

originally posted by: TheJourney

originally posted by: Chrisfishenstein
a reply to: tothetenthpower

which points to a close to certain probability exceeding 99.999%.

Um....how does the probability EXCEED 99.999%?

There are an infinite number of probabilities greater that 99.999%...

99.9991%, 99.9992%, 99.9993%, etc.

Though obviously there isn't much difference between all the numbers between 99.999 and 100

Well...according to my personal study, it's 1000% sure that man isn't causing the majority of climate change. So there!

originally posted by: TownCryer
a reply to: tothetenthpower

NO WAY ! FOX'NEWS" says otherwise. Koch brothers say otherwise. Rush L says otherwise. How could they possibly be wrong? Oh, wait, I know how.....$$$.

HA! That was a knee slapper. And all your democrat, progressive friends that wish to control all of us happen to believe in something that can't be proven. Funny how they want to control how the people use energy, etc. Funny how they want to control businesses, control the fees if you use too much or pollute too much. Funny how they ALWAYS want to control.