WHO Warns Ebola Outbreak Could Hit 20,000 Within Nine Months

WHO Warns Ebola Outbreak Could Hit 20,000 Within Nine Months

The World Health Organization warned Thursday that the number of people affected by the Ebola virus could rise to 20,000 within the next nine months and a projected half a billion dollars would be needed to fund efforts aimed at stopping the spread of the disease.

In a document released Thursday, the U.N. health body said the outbreak of the disease "continues to accelerate." More than 40% of reported cases have occurred within the last three weeks, the report said.

As of Aug. 28, health authorities in the four affected nations—Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria and Sierra Leone—have reported 3,069 cases of the disease since the outbreak started in December. The disease, a virus that causes a fever so high it punctures blood vessels to cause internal bleeding, has already killed 1,552 people.

With 40% of the cases occurring in only the last three weeks, any bets their 20,000 number will prove to have been a conservative one?

What would the money be used for? The people in these areas have repeatedly refused to stop eating bush meat or pause the funeral practices that endanger them.

Would this money be feeding people safe food? Or laying the dead to rest safely?

Unless the money specifically goes to biohazard suits to protect the aid workers I don't see money as a solution.

a reply to: loam

Considering about 60000 ppl die from car accidents per annum in the US alone, I don't see how this is any worse. And yet the amount of money spent on curbing senseless deaths from vehicle collisions is miniscule. Yeah, contagious disease sucks, but so do most drivers on the road. Fear mongering much WHO? That said, I hope Ebola doesn't explode to epic proportions.

a reply to: Iamthatbish

I wondered that myself. Moreover, just doing some quick math in my head about financial commitments already made, I think they are already near that number.

I suspect much of it will go to administrative and surveillance efforts. In other words, we'll be paying for some really expensive theater seats, while they watch this train wreck.

Hope I'm wrong.

a reply to: loam

I thought the Ebola research centers already had front row seats?

The way that this has been handled hadn't worked. Experts need to reconfigure their approach.

If we take the educated opinions (MSF, WHO, CDC etc) into account, then the actual number of cases is 2 to 4 times what is reported. This means that there are, in reality, currently around 6,000-12,000 infected individuals.

I'd say that 20,000 figure is "vastly underestimated."

originally posted by: Sparkymedic
a reply to: loam

Considering about 60000 ppl die from car accidents per annum in the US alone, I don't see how this is any worse.

This is exactly the type thinking they wanted to create with the 20000 figure and 9 months.

a reply to: Sparkymedic

I hear you. But considering they seem to thus far have gotten their assessments wrong by a factor of 4 to 10, what's this look like if the real numbers in nine months are closer to 80,000 or a few million? Cases will certainly start appearing in Europe, Asia and North America. The disruption that will cause will be enormous.

Healthcare systems are already being over-run. So people are dying not just because of Ebola, but for other reasons that might have been prevented by treatment. We aren't hearing about those numbers yet.

Ebola is just the stone that hits the water.

The ripples it will cause will be numerous and widespread.

a reply to: Iamthatbish

As if the funds aren't going to end up going in someone's pocket-like those "feed the children" scams.

I say let nature take it's course.

originally posted by: jadedANDcynical
If we take the educated opinions (MSF, WHO, CDC etc) into account, then the actual number of cases is 2 to 4 times what is reported. This means that there are, in reality, currently around 6,000-12,000 infected individuals.

I'd say that 20,000 figure is "vastly underestimated."

It could be worse because for all we know that could be the conservative estimate of 2 to 4 since they are in the cause no panic mode.

It "could" reach 20,000 - we need a "projected" half-a-billion dollars.

Sure, no problem.

originally posted by: FalcoFan
a reply to: Iamthatbish

As if the funds aren't going to end up going in someone's pocket-like those "feed the children" scams.

I say let nature take it's course.

If "nature takes it's course" it's likely that the problem is it's going to spread way beyond those areas as the CDC warned.

Looks like, even if they had more money than they needed to help and they weren't greedy in their proposed goal of stopping the spread it may not work. People were already up in arms declaring in Liberia that they will still eat bush meat because it's not the cause of Ebola and that their government wanted to tax it. Now finally, after all the infections, reports are saying people are in fear of bush meat in other areas. It's a start there, but there are other things, especially the fact of hygiene to proper disposal of the affected bodies in such impoverished areas. It's going to be hard to change some factors unfortunately.

I hope all the warnings are wrong by the CDC and now the The World Health Organization. At this point let it all be sensationalism, a ruse, what ever one might say. The reality of the situation is very frightening.

The average person has no ties to this part of the world. I've seen heartbreaking pictures of children that manage to survive Ebola having to sleep outside due to fear of contamination.

Who benefits with all these people dead? Who benefits from the money being sent to help? We don't think its the people that are ill benefiting then we need to help by sending the supplies themselves.

a reply to: loam

I agree with you loam , we will see cases Europe , North America and around the world . When that happens and the fear starts spreading , it will start getting nasty !

armakirais

originally posted by: FalcoFan
a reply to: Iamthatbish

As if the funds aren't going to end up going in someone's pocket-like those "feed the children" scams.

I say let nature take it's course.

Right.....until it's YOU or one of your family members that gets the disease and dies.

Then it will be....."Why didn't someone do something

a reply to: olaru12

There are many ways (lethal and non lethal) to prevent yourself from catching diseases during an outbreak.

I'm not a liberal-I don't need aunt obama and uncle michelle to hold my hand.

Besides,I already live in one of the deadliest areas of the country-and have had to fight for my life on more than one occasion.

a reply to: loam

Here's a bit I posted on another thread:

By Tuesday August 26, the cumulative number of reported cases was 3069, including 1552 deaths.

* We know cases are vastly under-reported - the UN estimates the actual total is around 12,000 at 3-4 times greater than reports show - but 10 times greater is more likely. [There's no one to diagnose and test: there are only 1-2 doctors per 100,000 people there and many are dead now; most people aren't even near a hospital and most of the few hospitals have been deserted by staff; the biggest charity clinic has 120 beds -the few other clinics have 10 or 12 beds- and it was overwhelmed on the first day it opened.]

...U.N. ....assumes that the actual number of cases in many hard-hit areas may be two to four times higher than currently reported. If that's accurate, it suggests there could be up to 12,000 cases already.

* The epidemic is out of control - it probably will be at least a year before anyone can even think about containment, and Ebola will continue spreading in West Africa.

* Reported cases jumped by almost 300% in less than a month between July 23 and August 26 - from 1,201 to 3,069. Increases actually will be exponential, but even at a flat 300% we're looking at 9,207 by the end of September - 27,621 by the end of October - 82,863 by end November - 248,589 by end December.... [Where on earth are they getting "20,000"?] NOTE:

In Geneva, the agency released a new plan for handling that aims to stop Ebola transmission in affected countries within six to nine months and prevent it from spreading internationally. ...The goal is to take "the heat out of this outbreak" within three months, he said. That will enable WHO to start using classic containment strategies to stop transmission altogether.

This is not a tragedy - it's a monumental FAIL.

Response to Ebola chaotic and inadequate

International response to the West African Ebola outbreak has been "chaotic and entirely inadequate," according to a statement issued Wednesday by the humanitarian group Doctors Without Borders, which has been treating patients in affected countries for months.

Doctors Without Borders' newest Ebola treatment facility — a 120-bed facility in Monrovia, the capital of Liberia — is already overwhelmed. The group plans to construct three additional tents with space for 40 more beds.

Doctors Without Borders' guidelines were written for Ebola treatment centers with just 20 beds. "We have to constantly adapt" to address a crisis of this scale, Lindis Hurum, the group's emergency coordinator in Monrovia, said in a statement. "The numbers of patients we are seeing is unlike anything we've seen in previous outbreaks," Hurum said.

The new treatment center can slow the spread of the outbreak by isolating patients, preventing them from infecting friends and family. But overworked health workers have had to reduce the level of care they provide, according to Doctors Without Borders. They can no longer administer intravenous treatments, for example, which could limit doctors' ability to help dehydrated patients.

"It is simply unacceptable that, five months after the declaration of this Ebola outbreak, serious discussions are only starting now about international leadership and coordination," said Brice de le Vingne, director of operations at Doctors Without Borders. Referring to other countries that have the potential to help, he says, "They can do more, so why don't they?"

ETA PS. F&S

originally posted by: Sparkymedic
a reply to: loam

Considering about 60000 ppl die from car accidents per annum in the US alone, I don't see how this is any worse. And yet the amount of money spent on curbing senseless deaths from vehicle collisions is miniscule. Yeah, contagious disease sucks, but so do most drivers on the road. Fear mongering much WHO? That said, I hope Ebola doesn't explode to epic proportions.

It's an exponential curve, not a flat line. Say every African only travels to the nearest village three miles away, that one in ten Africans in a village does travel, and that it takes two weeks for the viral infection symptoms to appear, that's a slow but steady infection rate. Add in the complication of air travel and it only takes one person to spread the infection to another country.

Yes it is exponential and we will hit reported 20,000 cases in November. Check out Ikonklast's charts here:
www.abovetopsecret.com...

a reply to: fwkitziger

Would not surprise me if we have hit 20,000 now the way they have been cooking the numbers.

They probably have 2 sets of numbers one for public consumption and then the real estimate.