A new Russian revolution: The cracks are starting to appear in Putin’s Kremlin power bloc

July 27 2014 - A new Russian revolution: The cracks are starting to appear in Putin’s Kremlin power bloc

German intelligence is reported to have obtained evidence of a power struggle under way in the Kremlin, with hardliners and oligarchs at loggerheads over Western sanctions. Some reportedly want to “put the brakes” on President Vladimir Putin to rescue their business interests.

Der Spiegel magazine reported on Sunday that the head of Germany’s intelligence service, Gerhard Schindler, had told the Berlin parliament’s foreign affairs committee that cracks were beginning to appear in the united front that President Putin’s government was seeking to present to the world.

Mr Schindler was said to have told the committee and subsequently Chancellor Angela Merkel in person that a struggle had broken out in the Kremlin, with hardliners and oligarchs seeking to exert their influence on Mr Putin.

“According to German intelligence it is quite possible that some of the oligarchs who are worried by European Union sanctions will soon start putting economic interests above political concerns and try to put the brakes on Putin,” Der Spiegel wrote.

Mr Schindler told MPs that unlike at the beginning of the Ukraine crisis, cracks were now beginning to appear in Mr Putin’s power bloc. He was said to have made his comments during a weekly intelligence report to parliament and the Berlin Chancellery.

Evidence of a Kremlin power struggle emerged after the EU this weekend expanded its list of Russians subject to sanctions to a total of 87 people and 20 organisations.

Click link for remainder of article.

I called this some time back. Putin has essentially backed himself into a corner not only with the West, but his own advisers as well.

The Oligarchs on the business side and the hardliner old guard in the other.

By not following the old guard's push for expanded operations he is going to alienate the old guard, costing him support.
By not following the warnings from the Oligarchs he is going to alienate those people who lost their jobs because of his intransigence.

I am curious to see how far this potential issue could go in Russia.

Coup by the military?
The Oligarchs stop financially supporting Putin while at the same time getting their assets out of Russia.

Thoughts?

a reply to: Xcathdra

The course has been set I think. Putin won't back down.

a reply to: Xcathdra

Double post.

a reply to: Xcathdra

I believe it's just a propaganda, nothing we haven't seen before, and the source of this information makes me doubt this even more.
But, on the other hand, I wouldn't be surprised if maybe some foreign secret services are planning on starting a revolution against Putin, so Russia wont be a problem anymore. This second option looks more possible to me. Just a thought.

a reply to: Xcathdra

Could this be the start of the endgame for Putin ? , he's shown over the years that he won't relinquish power voluntarily so I think the only way is for a military coup or an assassination / tragic accident.

I just hope he doesn't decide to take us all with him

a reply to: Xcathdra

It doesn't surprise me. I'm not saying it's 100 % accurate but no man is an island and there is nobody who is completely loved by everyone. I'm sure when and if he is finally toppled there will be those claiming it was a CIA plot.

In any case, I hope for whats best for the Russian people.

a reply to: gortex

Gortex, I've a deep respect for you, but are you being serious right now? What Putin had done to make you think he would blow up whole world? All he ever did was looking after Russia's interest, in not such a violent way like other countries might have done. If you are referring to Ukraine, if you ask me, he didn't do enough to protect Russian citizens over there, that's why so many Russians get killed everyday, while nobody recognize that. So yeah, I honestly don't think he will blow up us all even if he gets impeached, which is highly unlikely.

originally posted by: gortex
a reply to: Xcathdra

Could this be the start of the endgame for Putin ? , he's shown over the years that he won't relinquish power voluntarily so I think the only way is for a military coup or an assassination / tragic accident.

Putin knows where all the skeletons are. He'll go on his terms.

If there is any truth in what German Intelligence claim to have discovered, then talking about it publicly was probably counter-productive.
It would have been more sensible to keep the information to themselves and private briefings, and let things develop behind the scenes.

originally posted by: gortex
a reply to: Xcathdra

Could this be the start of the endgame for Putin ? , he's shown over the years that he won't relinquish power voluntarily so I think the only way is for a military coup or an assassination / tragic accident.

I just hope he doesn't decide to take us all with him

The other caveat is the atmosphere Putin has reestablished in the Kremlin. It harkens back to the Soviet Union days. If the hardliners think Putin is moving in a direction they dont like would they remove him from office and do their own thing?

a reply to: Nikola014

Completely agree, the restraint shown by Putin with regard to the continuous nibbling away at Russia's near abroad by NATO/USA/UK/Israel whatever you want to call it is commendable. In many ways I just can't believe Putin hasn't secured at least the East of Ukraine, the past twenty years have proven western interests will without doubt bring their influence closer and closer to Moscow encircling through NATO enlargement, EU enlargement, Muslim rebellions and proxy wars.

a reply to: Nikola014

No offense but I would say eliminating people in the past who opposed him and invading Ukraine and his actions in Georgia are pretty violent.

The guy is notorious for silencing descent and jailing those who speak out against him

I wouldn't say that's good for a country. Unless your Stalin

originally posted by: DISRAELI
If there is any truth in what German Intelligence claim to have discovered, then talking about it publicly was probably counter-productive.
It would have been more sensible to keep the information to themselves and private briefings, and let things develop behind the scenes.

I was thinking the Germans were sending a "shot across their bow" message. By making this info public it moves the spotlight to Putin and the possible internal issues in his government over his actions. It also shows that the popular support Putin claims to have might not be all that popular after all.

originally posted by: JohnnyCanuck

originally posted by: gortex
a reply to: Xcathdra

Could this be the start of the endgame for Putin ? , he's shown over the years that he won't relinquish power voluntarily so I think the only way is for a military coup or an assassination / tragic accident.

Putin knows where all the skeletons are. He'll go on his terms.

He has surrounded himself with his former KGB colleagues / old guard. Its entirely possible they know where the bodies are hidden as well.

I dont see how is going to be able to keep both groups happy.

Unless something changes he is going to experience a Phyric victory, assuming he makes it that far.

originally posted by: ManBehindTheMask
a reply to: Nikola014

No offense but I would say eliminating people in the past who opposed him and invading Ukraine and his actions in Georgia are pretty violent.

The guy is notorious for silencing descent and jailing those who speak out against him

I wouldn't say that's good for a country. Unless your Stalin

So you would rather have oligarchs and capitalists dictating policy above the rights and freedoms of the people, and above and beyond the reproach and obligations of the state in protecting the people and country... ?

All this is exactly what I think Putin is trying to avoid, or minimize. We saw the chaos oligarchs caused prior to Putin. God help us if these cretins ever gained political power again.

a reply to: ManBehindTheMask

Can you show me when did Russia invade Ukraine? There was a civil war in Ukraine. Pro-Russians used it to declare their independency over Ukraine. Are they being supplied by weapons from Russia? Of course. BUT, Russia didn't do anything else in that conflict. They didn't sent their troops. They didn't do a single attack on Ukraine. So, you are wrong. Russia did not invade Ukraine.

originally posted by: Blister
So you would rather have oligarchs and capitalists dictating policy above the rights and freedoms of the people, and above and beyond the reproach and obligations of the state in protecting the people and country... ?

All this is exactly what I think Putin is trying to avoid, or minimize. We saw the chaos oligarchs caused prior to Putin. God help us if these cretins ever gained political power again.

Isolating / removing Oligarchs creates the issue of lack of business support. Since Russia is not the Soviet Union, its going to need those Oligarchs to support Putin's long term goals for Russia.

Going into the South / East of Ukraine would most likely result in major sanctions. The price tag for Crimea was up there and that does not include the needed resources to bring Crimea "up to speed".

You factor in the South / East Ukraine, and major sanctions, I dont see how Russia could afford to maintain / improve those areas. Loss of capital funds, loans, technologies and its a torpedo in the side of his administration.

Dismissing the west as Putin has been doing (on sanctions) is dangerous. North Korea is still trying to be self sufficient and we see how well that position has played out over the last 60 years.

I think Putin puts on the poker face in public. I think behind the scenes he is loosing control and is looking for, and not finding, a way out that works in his favor.

originally posted by: ManBehindTheMask
a reply to: Nikola014

No offense but I would say eliminating people in the past who opposed him and invading Ukraine and his actions in Georgia are pretty violent.

The guy is notorious for silencing descent and jailing those who speak out against him

I wouldn't say that's good for a country. Unless your Stalin

Pots and Kettles? USA invades places all the time. I'm sure your Texan preident has been resposible through his actions, like many other US presidents for massively more military murders than can be pinned on the Russians. I mean we must be talking well into the millions in the last few decades right? Georgia and Ukraine don't even come close.

a reply to: Nikola014
Russian troops with no insignias were deployed, armed, into the Crimean countryside (which is a violation of the treaty Russia and Ukraine had). This occurred before the illegal referendum in Crimea.

So you have armed Russian troops with no insignias (which Putin verified were Russian soldiers) spread out of Crimea.

That would be an invasion.

a reply to: ufoorbhunter

How many of those countries did the US annex? 0

Katyn Massacre - 25,000 Poles executed by Soviet Forces.
Stalins reign - 20 million dead.

So no, the numbers are not comparable or even close. Russia is hands down the winner in the murder realm.