Eta Carinae is brightening as never before. The event is coming!

originally posted by: beezzer
a reply to: stormbringer1701

The thing is, if we're seeing it, it IS frying us. It could have super-nova'd 4,000 years ago. What we're seeing is light that is 8,000 years old.

It could have super-nova'd 8,000 years ago and we could be in for one heck of a sunrise.

It is not going to fry us, it is not pointed towards us and even if it were you must realize the Earth has a relatively thick atmosphere.

There have been events like this in Earth's past, some of them closer than Eta Car and we know this because they left their mark in tree rings but life persists and so would we.

So the takeaway is:

1) It's not pointed at us. It is of huge interest because there has not been a supernova this close in the era of modern astronomy so all of us astronomers are very excited but its no reason to go all "Doomsday Prepper".

2) Even if it was pointed at us other than giving the Earth a worldwide "Northern Lights" show"for several months little else would be noticeable.

3) If you just like being afraid of everything there are events transpiring right here on Earth which could lead to doomsday far more than Eta Car.

originally posted by: JadeStar

It is not going to fry us, it is not pointed towards us and even if it were you must realize the Earth has a relatively thick atmosphere.

There have been events like this in Earth's past, some of them closer than Eta Car and we know this because they left their mark in tree rings but life persists and so would we.

So the takeaway is:

1) It's not pointed at us. It is of huge interest because there has not been a supernova this close in the era of modern astronomy so all of us astronomers are very excited but its no reason to go all "Doomsday Prepper".

2) Even if it was pointed at us other than giving the Earth a worldwide "Northern Lights" show"for several months little else would be noticeable.

3) If you just like being afraid of everything there are events transpiring right here on Earth which could lead to doomsday far more than Eta Car.

to answer your points in order.

1. originally the alignment of the pole was thought to be about 16 percent or in other words; we were very likely in the cone that would erupt if it is a gamma burster when it goes. now astronomers think it's not pointing at us that closely; something more like 35 percent off axis.

2. that is true of lesser explosive events but a hyper nova is different. scientists do not dispute that it could eat 90 percent of the ozone in about ten seconds. what is disputed is whether a hyper nova was the culprit for the siluian-ordovician extinction. if it was even the shielding of the oceans did not prevent it.

3. if it does go hyper nova no amount of doom prepping would save anyone. it would take massive engineering which is unlikely to happen. i doubt we could pull it together even if somehow we got several centuries advanced warning that it was a WR hyper nova with gamma ray burst heading directly towards us. the govts of the world would be ineffective and probably just conceal the facts from the public so they could eek out a few more years of control.

4. doom porn averted:

www.universetoday.com...

what i want you to see is that this type of GRB IS a planet killer. we (probably) just aren't looking down the barrel as had been thought.

www.forbes.com...

But if such a GRB did hit earth’s atmosphere, says Adrian Melott, a physicist at the University of Kansas in Lawrence, it would likely cause a 50 percent increase in solar UVB radiation which would not only disrupt photosynthesis among marine and freshwater plankton, but also likely precipitate some sort of broader extinction event.

“You would first notice a 10-second blue flash in the upper atmosphere,” said Melott, “but then the damage would be done.”

from the next article in that thread, titled:

Decoding A Great Earth Die-Off: Was A Gamma-Ray Burst Really The Trigger?

Not only would the destruction of the ozone open the door for lethal ultraviolet (UV) solar radiation to make it all the way down to earth’s land masses and shallow oceans, such an event would have also destroyed molecular nitrogen in our atmosphere. According to the hypothesis, this would have led to the creation of a brownish, nitrogen dioxide-based haze; one potentially capable of global cooling of the sort that could create continent-sized ice sheets.

Such glaciations would have been out of the norm at the time, since earth was in the midst of an “intense greenhouse interval” when atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels are thought to have been as much as 22 times what they are today.

In an effort to test the hypothesis, Melott and Brian Thomas, a physicist at Washburn University in Topeka, found that computations of the extinction pattern precisely matched that found in the fossil record, if the burst went off over the Earth’s South Pole. Melott notes that this represented a successful first step in assessing the idea.

a reply to: stormbringer1701

the govts of the world would be ineffective and probably just conceal the facts from the public so they could eek out a few more years of control.

Again with the "the government would hide it from us" rubbish. That simply couldn't happen. The kind of observations we are talking about are the kind of observations that any amateur astronomer can make. How can you hide a (currently) fifth-magnitude star's brightness variations from the general public, exactly?

originally posted by: Rob48
a reply to: stormbringer1701

the govts of the world would be ineffective and probably just conceal the facts from the public so they could eek out a few more years of control.

Again with the "the government would hide it from us" rubbish. That simply couldn't happen. The kind of observations we are talking about are the kind of observations that any amateur astronomer can make. How can you hide a (currently) fifth-magnitude star's brightness variations from the general public, exactly?

you can deny that it will be harmful for starters or use confusion about the alignment to say it isn't aimed at us if it is.

see the issue is not necessarily government malfeasance; it's the fact that shelters would take an impossible amount of money to make. millions of people in each country (in some countries billions or entire populations) would still die and those that are left out to die will not go quietly into the night. there would be wars desperately fought for access to the shelters which could not possible hold all of the people, seeds, insects and other organisms needed to reseed the biome. you need soil and plant symbiotes, pollinators, phyotplanckton, micro fauna, important plants and animals, people and thier food and other consumables for perhaps a decade.

a reply to: stormbringer1701
But again, these things can be verified by astronomers. Governments don't own science and observation.

Another chance to see the ''world ending'' in our lifetime fades away,
but don't lose hope... we might just get what we wish for, by another upcoming event,
....fingers crossed!

Could this be the story that was around a little while ago about a star in the western sky that had become bright ?
1%

originally posted by: Dr1Akula
Another chance to see the ''world ending'' in our lifetime fades away,

but don't lose hope... we might just get what we wish for, by another upcoming event,
....fingers crossed!

actually i would hope that the people of earth see the danger and take effective action if there really were a cosmic threat. the nowegians(?) have made a seed bank of all the commercially important or medically important plants; as an example. i would hope other nations would follow suite.

we have developed recently meta-materials which can actually bend gamma rays with very little mass. something like that could in theory be mass manufactured into panels and assembled on a grand scale to act as a gamma ray shield between earth and the GRB origin. the logistics of such an operation would dwarf every mega engineering project ever done or contemplated being done on earth put together though. it would have to probably be as large as the earth in diameter. it would probably have to be manufactured in space using In SITU resources.

originally posted by: my1percent
Could this be the story that was around a little while ago about a star in the western sky that had become bright ?
1%

i dunno; if so i doubt anyone considered that it might be a hyper nova. As JadeStar pointed out a regular nova/super nova isn't all that much to worry about. happens all the time and we normally get nothing but a light show like the Chinese in the 1500's recorded in their history.

the only thing really bugging me right now is i cannot find the article i read about a class of GRB that lasts three months. i know i read it. i can't find it now and that is really bugging me.

Just found out what event the Brazilain's have been talking about when they wrote "The event is coming!"

The Binary star system blocks one star from our view every 5 and a half years. Just before the last eclipse He2 was detected...

"For 50 years there was talk that Eta Carinae is a cool star of maximum 15 000 degrees Celsius, then it should be only neutral helium atoms on its surface. But based on the data observed, John Steiner (professor of IAG / USP) showed that one month before the blackout, is equivalent to 5,200 times fulguration sunlight only in extreme ultraviolet, which produces He ++ "explained Damineli .

The data were published in another article in The Astrophysical Journal.

Then Thomas Madura, postdoctoral Astrophysics Division Science NASA proposed in the new paper, published in 2013 in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, that the emission of He ++ could be explained by the existence of a hole in the photosphere of biggest star. Ions would not surface, so subfotosfera but the star where the temperature is much higher.

Source needs translation

The star is expected to be again view able by 1st August this year. Now.