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originally posted by: Kali74
a reply to: beezzer
It's thought to be a cause for brain overgrowth and thus potentially a causal factor for autism. So now that you know, would you ask the doctors how they feel about autism or suspect they were being funded to lie about their data for some NWO agenda?
Now if prenatal exposure to some petrochemical were to be found (purely fiction on my part to make a point) to cause an increase in prefrontal neurons and it was found out to come from the styrofoam cups mom drank her tea out of on her way to work everyday... and the major manufacturers of styrofoam went all tobacco lawyer and painted the 50 doctors as agents of the NWO agenda to kill the styrofoam industry and put thousands of people out of work to increase poverty in order to herd the hungry masses together...
You get the idea?
Introduction
This section should set the context, why the principle is important, what factors gave rise to it.
Implementation
This section should analyze the status of implementation of the principle globally, including the following:
• A broad and brief analysis of global implementation i.e. how prevalent the principle is in global and national
decision-making, policy and law, the main drivers
• Examples of regional and national implementation (specific case studies only, a full-scale analysis of
national implementation will not be possible)
• Examples of global, regional and national instruments, including evaluations of efficacy of instruments
where possible
• An overview of the key actors and organizations that have influenced progress towards implementation,
their past, ongoing and future campaigns
Challenges and Conflicts
This section should focus on some of the challenges to implementation of the Principle more generally,
including:
• Disparities in the application of the principle across UN Member States, including an analysis of political,
economic, cultural and industrial interests that might influence this
• Conflicting policies and legislation globally e.g. World Bank, IMF, WTO
• Interest groups and actors that are opposed to the implementation of the principle
The Way Forward
This section should provide an analysis of the possible ‘way forward’ for the Principle, based on the author’s
own analysis of the ‘state of the debate’ but also referring to views of experts in the field. It should include
the following:
• Identification of further steps that could be taken to more fully implement the Principle in question
• Identification of the trade-offs associated with the Principle that must be addressed
• Identification of particular actors (where relevant) whose approach will need to change
• Identification of prevailing social, political, environmental and economic drivers which will influence the
likelihood of implementation.
Q1: Is the U.S. Surface Temperature Record Reliable?
A recent study conducted by scientists at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center found no evidence that the U.S. temperature trend is inflated by poor siting of stations that comprise the US Historical Climatology Network (USHCN).
NCDC scientists conducted this study to determine the reliability of surface temperature trends over the conterminous U.S. (CONUS) following photographic documentation of poor siting conditions at USHCN stations.
A comparison of trends derived from poorly and well-sited USHCN stations indicates that there is a bias associated with poor exposure sites in the unadjusted USHCN version 2 data (relative to data from good exposure sites). However, this bias is consistent with previous studies documenting the impact of the widespread conversion to electronic sensors in the USHCN during the last 25 years because the majority of poor exposure sites were subject to this instrument change.
Of significant note, the sign of the bias is counterintuitive to photographic documentation of poor exposure because associated instrument changes led to an artificial negative ("cool") bias in maximum temperatures and only a slight positive ("warm") bias in minimum temperatures.
Adjustments largely account for the impact of instrument and siting changes but appear to leave a small overall residual negative ("cool") bias in the adjusted USHCN version 2 CONUS average maximum temperature.
The adjusted USHCN CONUS temperatures are well aligned with recent measurements from NOAA's U.S. Climate Reference Network (designed with the highest climate monitoring standards for siting and instrument exposure), thus providing independent evidence that the USHCN provides an accurate measure of the U.S. temperature.
The results of this study underscore the need to consider all changes in observation practice when determining the impacts of siting irregularities.
Information on the siting characteristics of USHCN stations and additional details on this study
These results are documented in: Menne, M.J., C.N. Williams, Jr., and M.A. Palecki, 2010: On the reliability of the U.S. surface temperature record. J. Geophys. Res. doi:10.1029/2009JD013094.
originally posted by: LDragonFire
a reply to: tadaman
Thanks for all that, but still not one example of a agenda 21 project anywhere in the US.
There is not enough LONG TERM DATA to conclude that we all be doomed in 100 years. Period.
The full quote actually said “Summarising, the simplistic comparison of ranges from AR4, AR5, and Otto et al, combined with the statement they are inconsistent is less then helpful, actually it is harmful as it opens the door for oversimplified claims of "errors" and worse from the climate sceptics media side.”
“As the referees report states, ‘The overall innovation of the manuscript is very low.’ This means that the study does not meet ERL’s requirement for papers to significantly advance knowledge of the field.”
“Far from denying the validity of Bengtsson’s questions, the referees encouraged the authors to provide more innovative ways of undertaking the research to create a useful advance.”
“As the report reads, ‘A careful, constructive, and comprehensive analysis of what these ranges mean, and how they come to be different, and what underlying problems these comparisons bring would indeed be a valuable contribution to the debate.”
“Far from hounding ‘dissenting’ views from the field, Environmental Research Letters positively encourages genuine scientific innovation that can shed light on complicated climate science.”
“The journal Environmental Research Letters is respected by the scientific community because it plays a valuable role in the advancement of environmental science – for unabashedly not publishing oversimplified claims about environmental science, and encouraging scientific debate.”
“With current debate around the dangers of providing a false sense of ‘balance’ on a topic as societally important as climate change, we’re quite astonished that The Times has taken the decision to put such a non-story on its front page.”
Please find the reviewer report below quoted in The Times, exactly as sent to Lennart Bengtsson.
We are getting permission from the other referees for this paper to make their reports available as soon as possible.
REFEREE REPORT(S):
COMMENTS TO THE AUTHOR(S)
The manuscript uses a simple energy budget equation (as employed e.g. by Gregory et al 2004, 2008, Otto et al 2013) to test the consistency between three recent "assessments" of radiative forcing and climate sensitivity (not really equilibrium climate sensitivity in the case of observational studies).
The study finds significant differences between the three assessments and also finds that the independent assessments of forcing and climate sensitivity within AR5 are not consistent if one assumes the simple energy balance model to be a perfect description of reality.
The overall innovation of the manuscript is very low, as the calculations made to compare the three studies are already available within each of the sources, most directly in Otto et al.
The finding of differences between the three "assessments" and within the assessments (AR5), when assuming the energy balance model to be right, and compared to the CMIP5 models are reported as apparent inconsistencies.
The paper does not make any significant attempt at explaining or understanding the differences, it rather puts out a very simplistic negative message giving at least the implicit impression of "errors" being made within and between these assessments, e.g. by emphasising the overlap of authors on two of the three studies.
What a paper with this message should have done instead is recognising and explaining a series of "reasons" and "causes" for the differences.
- The comparison between observation based estimates of ECS and TCR (which would have been far more interesting and less impacted by the large uncertainty about the heat content change relative to the 19th century) and model based estimates is comparing apples and pears, as the models are calculating true global means, whereas the observations have limited coverage. This difference has been emphasised in a recent contribution by Kevin Cowtan, 2013.
- The differences in the forcing estimates used e.g. between Otto et al 2013 and AR5 are not some "unexplainable change of mind of the same group of authors" but are following different tow different logics, and also two different (if only slightly) methods of compiling aggregate uncertainties relative to the reference period, i.e. the Otto et al forcing is deliberately "adjusted" to represent more closely recent observations, whereas AR5 has not put so much weight on these satellite observations, due to still persisting potential problems with this new technology
- The IPCC process itself explains potential inconsistencies under the strict requirement of a simplistic energy balance: The different estimates for temperature, heat uptake, forcing, and ECS and TCR are made within different working groups, at slightly different points in time, and with potentially different emphasis on different data sources. The IPCC estimates of different quantities are not based on single data sources, nor on a fixed set of models, but by construction are expert based assessments based on a multitude of sources. Hence the expectation that all expert estimates are completely consistent within a simple energy balance model is unfunded from the beginning.
- Even more so, as the very application of the Kappa model (the simple energy balance model employed in this work, in Otto et al, and Gregory 2004) comes with a note of caution, as it is well known (and stated in all these studies) to underestimate ECS, compared to a model with more time-scales and potential non-linearities (hence again no wonder that CMIP5 doesn't fit the same ranges)
originally posted by: beezzer
a reply to: Kali74
I'll star you just for your persistence alone.
If you honestly believe in an agenda, then I am at a loss to convince you otherwise.
I will remain a critical thinker and question everything. I am a doubting Thomas. I don't trust, rely, count on, adhere to anyone or any one group.
Sometimes I wish I had your confidence to blindly follow.
originally posted by: LDragonFire
originally posted by: beezzer
a reply to: Kali74
I'll star you just for your persistence alone.
If you honestly believe in an agenda, then I am at a loss to convince you otherwise.
I will remain a critical thinker and question everything. I am a doubting Thomas. I don't trust, rely, count on, adhere to anyone or any one group.
Sometimes I wish I had your confidence to blindly follow.
Unless its fox news or am radio because you parrot there views here everyday. Don't you?
originally posted by: Phage
a reply to: liejunkie01
There is not enough LONG TERM DATA to conclude that we all be doomed in 100 years. Period.
No climatologists are saying we are doomed in 100 years. Period. Worst case scenarios are pretty grim, but not doom.
Actually, I don't really know of any politicians that are saying that (not that I pay a lot of attention to them anyway).
The only people that seem to be saying that are warming deniers, in the context of "they say we are doomed in 100 years." Seems to be a strawman argument. Pretty much.
originally posted by: Kali74
a reply to: beezzer
So faced with facts that refute the claim of this guy that his paper was rejected because it went up against the big bad AGW dudes, you're not going to address it and instead for the second post in a row, insult me by calling me a nazi sheep? Pathetic.
originally posted by: LDragonFire
beezzer I didn't mean to disrespect but I'm tired and grouchy so im going to bed, so ill continue this tomorrow.