Tensions surge in S. China Sea as Philippines seizes Chinese boat

originally posted by: stumason
China is incapable of invading it's neighbors,
Not even remotely possible - Russia is out gunned by Europe

We'll we're gunna find out anyway!

a reply to: Agit8dChop

Let's hope not......

I was thinking of joining the Army Reserve and wasn't planning on an Eastern European holiday this year....

The problem for China as with Russia and India is the lack any real long term polical planning on a global stage. They also seem to completely lack the ability make friends in the world. Granted the US and the West are the masters at this game, China is going to have to at least try. If China was smart they would have work on being friends and winning over most of the Pacfic states while they chose one to focus on winning territory concesions from. Those states have problems with each other that could be exploited but, China being so heavy handed all over now has them all working together.

US allies and close friends the Phillipines, Singapore, Thailand, Brunei, and Malaysia are also members of ASEAN along with Vietnam, Indonesia, Cambodia, Laos, and Burma. Ad to that US allies Japan, Australia, New Zealand and South Korea and you have a large powerful block of nations that China just keeps antagonizing.

Many of those are nations that had no interest in a US presence in the region but now China''s actions have them all offering up bases for the US and asking for US troops. China like Russia are their own worst enemies.

a reply to: Xcathdra

It is starting to all look like a setup. If somehow the west were to allow China to alienate all those other asian countries that would be a good way to have them all unite against a common enemy.

China was a whipping boy for quite some time in the world. Now they have a new found strength.

Hopefully the US can unite all of the asians against China and knock them back 50 years. I would rather see China destroyed than continue this trajectory of US collapse.

a reply to: Xcathdra

I think that it's likely that the US would back the Phillipines against China if anything were to go down. This seems to be happening at a strange time.

Till China becomes a maritime power, more specifically, THE maritime power in the region, it's all bluster. Sure they can try and wield the economic club but that won't win them concessions nor points. Forget the Political/Diplomacy route, they have already blew that one.

It will take China a few generations to get their Naval forces to a point where they can impose their will on the region.

a reply to: pavil

Absent China committing a massive espionage coup on advanced technology coupled with kidnapping scientists in addition to senior military officials they are more than just a few generations off.

China likes to think it has a blue water navy but reality is its only a brown water navy (for those not familiar with the terms a blue water navy is force projection globally and brown water navy is force projection close to home shores / ports).

China has 1 aircraft carrier undergoing sea trials and qualifications for active duty deployment and if the most recent info is accurate they have another carrier under construction. The carrier they have was started by the Soviet Union at the end before their collapse.

China has modern carriers on the design boards and most likely could build something decent. The problem is carrier doctrine, which is something the Chinese have no experience in. That could cost them in the long run and if they act to soon their entire expansion from brown to blue water will fail.

If Russia continues down the road its on I can see them opening up more of their advanced weapons sales to China. Something Russia has been reluctant to do since every time China gets a new piece of hardware they reverse engineer it, boot out the company that sold it to them and then produce their own at home.

China Tells U.S. To Mind Its Business Regarding South China Sea

Vietnam speaks of Chinese ramming

Today, Vietnam said that a Chinese vessel, with air support, deliberately rammed to of its ships on Sunday causing considerably damage and injuring six people.

“On May 4, Chinese ships intentionally rammed two Vietnamese Sea Guard vessels,” said Tran Duy Hai, a Foreign Ministry official and deputy head of Vietnam’s national border committee.

“Chinese ships, with air support, sought to intimidate Vietnamese vessels. Water cannon was used,” he said in an interview today. Six other ships were believed to be hit as well but damage was minor.

“No shots have been fired yet,” said a Vietnamese navy official, who could not be identified because he was not authorized to speak to media. “Vietnam won’t fire unless China fires first.”

While that is certain to not frighten China one bit and only cement what they know, it is surprising to hear criticism of China from Vietnam given the $50 billion plus in bilateral trade the communist countries enjoy.

While Vietnam was calling on China’s state-run oil company CNOOC to remove the rig, the United States was criticizing the move as well.

What came next was quite funny especially when Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying told Vietnam that the rig had nothing to do with Vietnam. While one can expect a statement like that regarding the United States getting involved in the war of words (for now), it’s a bit of a head scratching moment when you park an oil rig in a country’s waters and effectively say, “Don’t worry about it. Not your business”

“The United States has no right to complain about China’s activities within the scope of its own sovereignty,” she added.

So I see an interesting diplomatic standard emerging with parallels between Russia and China. I am also starting to wonder if they are not trying to split out attention.

The stance China is taking with regards to Vietnam and the US is mind your own business.
The stance Russia is taking with regards to Ukraine / EU / US is mind your own business.

At what point in the evolution of diplomatic norms did we hit the point where action by a country was followed up with its none of your business? Even when looking at the actions the US has taken, at no point did we ever state to another nation but out.

maybe im wrong... just a trend im seeing.

a reply to: MrSpad

Sea power issues and land force modernization aside with regards to China and India, they both are dumping a lot of money into their remote border areas. Don't forget about a year ago we had the Chinese send their military units across the border into India.

China has been busy upgrading bases and infrastructure (roads / highways / airports). They are also building a modern land link between China to Pakistan. Pakistan is allowing China to build it on both sides of the border.

India created a new military division with its be west main battle tanks. Their deployment in on the Chinese border.

China, imo like Russia, is thinking the modernization they have done so far with regards to their militaries are giving them an inflated sense of importance. At the moment Putin's head is so big it looks like he is a fugitive from Easter Island. Im hoping the Chinese don't follow suit.

originally posted by: brazenalderpadrescorpio
a reply to: Xcathdra

I think that it's likely that the US would back the Phillipines against China if anything were to go down. This seems to be happening at a strange time.

The US just signed a 10 year defense plan with the Philippines, which includes the ability for the US to use their naval facilities / bases.

Our defense treaty with Japan requires us to engage militarily should something happen.
last I checked our defense treaty with Taiwan only requires the US to provide military equipment for Taiwan to defend itself however I would imagine we would get involved.


Another theory from observation -

For some time now we all have had discussions on this site and everywhere else talking about the US being the world policeman and that we should not being doing that. I agree with that position to an extent however im thinking it might not be appropriate.

Since we started reducing military spending, coupled with Obama's doctrine of military engagement as an option of extreme last resort, there has been a noticeable increase of aggression from Russia and China. The argument is the actions by the US around the globe is what caused the problems. We are seeing those problems compounded by the US drawing down and Russia and China starting to stand up.

thoughts?

The Chinese fish anyplace they can get away with. Many times in other countries waters without permission.

There have even been Chinese fishing boats operating in the north Atlantic.
www.businessweek.com...

a reply to: HanzHenry

China has been alienating their neighbors form some time now and its only increased since. The problem is china went from trying to become a superpower to that of highway robber.

a reply to: Xcathdra

That's an interesting theory. It's almost like everyone is getting out of their system while someone like Obama is president.

originally posted by: Xcathdra
a reply to: HanzHenry

China has been alienating their neighbors form some time now and its only increased since. The problem is china went from trying to become a superpower to that of highway robber.

what makes the US seem like a hypocrite/coward/bully is the willingness to go to war lickety split against weak countries over threats of harming us (wmd's, etc)

Yet there are actual threats being uttered and surveys being taken in China amongst top level military leaders against the US and we are not so gung ho.

I do not like war, dont think it is always the best idea. But China and the way they are squeezing us, I am ready willing and able to get suited up and take it to them.

Just the simple fact that they OWN things in America, and that Americans are paying rent to Chinese owned property management companies, and Americans are employed at companies owned by China MAKES MY BLOOD BOIL!

I think we should go to war and blast them back to nothing. Sure beats having them buy up our country and put the squeeze on us.

Our grandparents and great grand parents are doing back flips in their graves over the fact that we have allowed them to own even one grain of dirt in America.

a reply to: stumason

Replying back to an earlier post of yours, I somehow don't think the USA would step in were China to have its own war with its neighbours. China is the biggest threat to the power of the petro dollar and war would be expensive and the whole area would likely pile is as said earlier. I suspect the USA would relish quietly a little war out there provided it stays out there.

We may be great allies of the Japanese but considering the state of Japan currently I suspect even the Japs couldn't get the West involved in this shindig. were it to happen. I also expect China would use a lot of other persuaders before she actually went to war, but when the fought the Vietnamese she was not the country she is today, she has moved into the huge muscle and nuke club, so I wouldn't fancy the Vietmanese chance today in any conflict between the two.

a reply to: Shiloh7

The US has defense treaties wth some of those nations that obligates us to assist militarily if those nations are attacked.

China has an uncanny ability to make sure each and every neighbor hate them . There is a lot of unrest within China against govt. as well so the Chinese might be looking for a war to unify the populace .

There isn't much of a riddle to China's actions

China is... fat lady in an airline seat.

She's going to stick a limb out to the hand rest on the left and right, lean her seat back, snore, ask for the second meal... because she can, because most of the time when that big Ham of an arm hits the arm rest your really going to have to shove to move it and people don't like conflict so they kind of scrunch up a bit most of the time and when once in a blue moon someone gets pissed and shoves that arm or gets loud about it, she'll apologize or move her arm like it didn't happen and slowly over the next half hr that ham will slowly slide right back there it's weight pushing your little arm off again until you just give up and let her have it...

She's too big, she'll get most of it without a fight simply by being Fat and she knows it... time and weight is on her side and she knows it.

originally posted by: maddy21
China has an uncanny ability to make sure each and every neighbor hate them . There is a lot of unrest within China against govt. as well so the Chinese might be looking for a war to unify the populace .

The protesters are numbered around 30k now.

They are having bombing in the western part of the country.

They are wanting an internet that has extremely tight firewalls.

The Chinese government is trying to root out corruption among the party members. That blew up in their faces since some of the people getting tagged are senior members at the mid levels of government.

A huge increase in military spending for modernization.


Troubles are a'brewing.

@ comment about the fat lady on the plane.

I would says its more along the lines of the fat lady on the plane telling everyone to get off the plane so she can have it for herself.

Some more updated info -

Its looking like there were more than just a few vessels involved... Upwards of 80+ vessels involved.

China tensions with neighbors rise at sea

Strains between China and its neighbors burst to the surface in two parts of the South China Sea, taking the high-stakes struggle for control over the waters to new levels of friction.

Off Vietnam, dozens of Chinese military and civilian ships clashed with the Vietnamese coast guard, with Vietnamese officials complaining its vessels were repeatedly rammed. On the same day, Philippine police apprehended Chinese fishing vessels loaded with hundreds of sea turtles in disputed waters.

About 80 Chinese vessels moved into an area near the disputed Paracel Islands, where Hanoi has sought to prevent China from deploying a massive oil rig, said Rear Adm. Ngo Ngoc Thu, vice commander of the Vietnamese coast guard. He said the flotilla included seven military ships and that it was supported by aircraft.

He said the situation, which started brewing over the weekend, was “very tense” and said six Vietnamese officers had been injured in the standoff.

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