One must consider the source, and the possibility of whether these claims are false, first and foremost, or whether they're being blown out of
proportion. Consider that Fox is a right wing network, and the right is pushing for military action much harder than the left...That could mean
something, although I am not saying this is what is going on for certain.
Next is the fact that one cannot gauge Russian intent simply the positioning of a single spy boat in international waters. Such a thing IS routine,
and there is nothing illegal or threatening about it. Now maybe US citizens will know how citizens of other countries have felt in the past, when US
spy ships, or even combat vessels, were positioned right off the coast of their country.
So I won't even further address the issue of the Russian vessel, as I don't think it has any significance. People need to realize that even if Russia
were taking actions such as gathering intelligence, this does not mean they want war.
People must realize that a military must be ready for all possibilities, and that Russia is just as worried about the US taking military action as the
US is worried about Russia taking military action. It is no surprise that during the Cold War the Russian citizens thought the US the aggressors,
while the citizens of the US thought Russia were the aggressors. So that could very well be the explanation for Russia's spy ship, as well as aircraft
near the Ukranian border.
Now we must ask ourselves the following question: Could Ukraine have a reason to lie and say their airspace is being violated? Sure they do. So I will
not take such claims at face value, because those making the claims likely have an ulterior motive. Look at how silly the following ideas are: People
are scared of RUSSIA ATTACKING, yet they're saying that Russia is PROVOKING Ukraine? How does that make any sense?
If they are waiting around to provoke Ukraine into taking some sort of first action, then obviously Russia does not want to invade. And if they wanted
to invade, why would they need to provoke Ukraine in the first place? That may be considered a bit circular, but it is something to consider. And I've
stated previously on ATS my belief that military action at this point would not make any sense. If Russia was going to invade, their best opportunity
has passed. They should have done it right after Crimea.
And you have to realize that invading Crimea is not really the same as invading Ukraine itself. First of all Russia has a lease that allows 25,000
troops to be stationed in the south, and their naval base there is probably their most strategically located for conflicts in the larger region. They
want to hang on to it at all costs, that is how important it is for their overall peacetime military strategy. That is why they invaded Crimea. Now I
cannot think of a single good reason that would be justified, based on how Russia is thinking, for invading Ukraine. They have let so much time pass
that they have allowed Ukranian troops to prepare defensive fortifications and networks all over the place, and they have also allowed other countries
such as the US to prepare for all possibilities.
Yes Russia could invade Ukraine and get away with it, at least in that it would not start a war with any other nations, because it is unlikely that
any other nations would actually fight a war with Russia. NATO will try to do something, but none of those countries want to be responsible for
starting WWIII, although things would not be likely to escalate that much, even if an invasion takes place. Also, waiting this long has allowed NATO
to position troops in friendly countries along the Russian border.
People see that Russia has troops along the Ukranian border and they say that means an invasion is coming. Yet they fail to realize that NATO has
troops stationed along the Russian border, which have recently arrived, but we know that NATO is not going to invade Russia. Therefore saying that
positioning troops along the border equates with an imminent invasion is simply incorrect. Russia has a large military force, and like other nations
their homeland force is sitting on bases doing nothing. Wouldn't it make more sense to position them along a potentially hostile border, if they're
just going to be sitting around anyway? Especially if you wanted to give the appearance of force.
It seems to me that Russia wants the rest of the world to think that they could invade at any time, but I don't think they will. Putin is not a stupid
man, and I'm sure he realizes that war would be horrible for Russia and the rest of the world. Even if he doesn't think there is a high probability
that he will be attacked by US or NATO forces, he likely knows the possibility remains. He doesn't have some diabolical plot to turn the world
communist or anything, as Russia is no longer the USSR. Putin knows he cannot recreate the USSR in modern day Russia, and he knows what he can and
cannot get away with.
So anyway, Russia is not going invade, and I've been saying the same thing ever since this whole fiasco started. I also know that there are many
ethnic tensions between Ukrainians and Russians. We know some of the things the Ukrainian leaders have said about Putin and Russians in general, and
it would not surprise me if these people went to extreme lengths to attempt to not only gain sympathy, but to turn the rest of the world against
Russia. They are doing what they can to make Russia appear to be so evil that they could invade at any moment, and that they are constantly violating
Ukrainian airspace, etc, etc...I think it is probably just propaganda.
But let us consider the possibility that Russian fighters did violate Ukrainian airspace. This could be a provocation, but it could also be other
things. They could be testing the capabilities of Ukrainian response or radar systems, they could be simply photographing the area across the border,
among other possibilities. And then it is possible that the pilots operated independently, without orders, or possibly they had orders but these
orders came from a Russian officer who did not have orders himself to allow such a thing. We don't know. And to say that war is inevitable is not
right in my opinion.
edit on 4/26/14 by JiggyPotamus because: (no reason given)