Ukraine: Unrest To End By Talks Or Force, 48 hr Deadline

www.cnn.com... Link with video. The ultimatium has been set. Reading another report, Ukraine tanks are moving into troubled areas.This is will not end well, things will esculate quickly from this deadline.Personally I believe for the local Russian population,losses will be extremely high ( a Waco stand off type event ). With the intension to draw Russia in. I am suspecting a slaughter, this tactic though is a double edged sword, While such a result would result retaliation and outrage from Russia, it has the potential split neighbor from neighbor, in even Russian opposing Nations.This tactic could back fire dramaticly.I feel from the 14th onwards things will esculate dramaticly.Just as N.A.T.O finalises, putting it's pieces in position.I can't understand how anyone can refer to this situation as a return to the Cold War or even draw a comparison. Please use this thread for updating, not ranting your opinons on who is the good guys/bad guys.This is for a discussion thread for updating the events as they unfold, not a opinon piece.

reply to post by 13th Zodiac


This is a youtube vid from there showing the tanks or what might be considered military stuff www.youtube.com...

the2ofusr1
reply to post by 13th Zodiac

 

This is a youtube vid from there showing the tanks or what might be considered military stuff www.youtube.com...

Thanks for sharing, what is wrong with us as a species? Looking like Kosovo now.

reply to post by 13th Zodiac


The neo-cons running the White House couldn't care less if Ukraine looked like Syria .I may end up being impossible for Russia to not get into this . If they do I would imagine they would hit pretty hard and quick .They wont let it go on like Syria ...it's just stupid what the US is causing ....

www.youtube.com... mods to edit I'm still learning!
This guy is in Donetsk city hall sending out videos every few minutes..

I saw no tanks in the video...two BMP personnel carriers and a couple anti tank artillery pieces (I think).....a very small unit as well.....
This is hyped info in my opinion....

This is the latest vid from RT on the subject www.youtube.com... You can see tanks in this one ...peace

originally posted by: the2ofusr1
reply to post by 13th Zodiac

 

The neo-cons running the White House couldn't care less if Ukraine looked like Syria .I may end up being impossible for Russia to not get into this . If they do I would imagine they would hit pretty hard and quick .They wont let it go on like Syria ...it's just stupid what the US is causing ....

I'm not sure ".I may end up being impossible for Russia to not get into this ." if Russia is sending its mercenaries (terrorist?) all the time. There are fights there ONLY because of Russian intervention.

The saying that it takes two to tango plays the same for Ukraine . We know that there are Russian speaking people in Ukraine .We know that some of them would like to see Ukraine part of Russia . Not all of them want to join Russia and there may be some who want to join the EU . We know there are mercenaries there ,ie. Blackwater/ Zee. There may be some Russian undercover stuff going on . We know there are FBI/CIA there . We also know that the US is intervening and probably NATO black operations . So for you to say that there are fights there only because of Russia doesn't make sense . It takes two to tango . We seen what was happening in Kiev and what followed from the Midan .Who are the protesters there now and what do they want ?

originally posted by: the2ofusr1
The saying that it takes two to tango plays the same for Ukraine . We know that there are Russian speaking people in Ukraine .We know that some of them would like to see Ukraine part of Russia . Not all of them want to join Russia and there may be some who want to join the EU . We know there are mercenaries there ,ie. Blackwater/ Zee. There may be some Russian undercover stuff going on . We know there are FBI/CIA there . We also know that the US is intervening and probably NATO black operations . So for you to say that there are fights there only because of Russia doesn't make sense . It takes two to tango . We seen what was happening in Kiev and what followed from the Midan .Who are the protesters there now and what do they want ?

"Russian speaking people"? With so good argument the USA could invade Canada, except Quebec.

Judging from last election the support for Russia in Ukraine is abysmally low. The core of "separatists" are just Russian units. (to be precise Putin sent there also Chechens who don't even look like local population)

" We know there are mercenaries there ,ie. Blackwater/ Zee."
That's mostly Russian propaganda used to make an impression that there is some symmetry here.

The whole fight is Ukrainian army vs. Russian army.

Who are the protesters there now and what do they want ?

Are you seriously asking? (because that's neighbouring country and Ukrainian language is understandable for me)

No need for the US to invade Canada and take it over .Both countries answer to the same over lords .Yes the Blackwater merc.s showed up early on in the discussion and I think that the sniping that took place in Kiev were attributed to them . There are pics in other threads pointing that fact out but it is argued that despite them being a American firm they are for hire from any country willing to pay . So what are the protesters protesting about on the Midan square ? Do you have any links that might answer ? a reply to: Shadow1024

originally posted by: the2ofusr1
No need for the US to invade Canada and take it over .Both countries answer to the same over lords .

Yes the Blackwater merc.s showed up early on in the discussion and I think that the sniping that took place in Kiev were attributed to them .

Actually they are not on my list of top suspect:
1) Just some overeager people in Yanukovych administration
2) False flag operation by Putin (if Yanukovych opened fire on bigger scale, he would be unable to ask the West for money, and would be forced to rely on Putin)
3) Just someone lost control on security forces/Maidan side (there was big mess, and if he had a gun and saw that his men are being beaten...).

There are pics in other threads pointing that fact out but it is argued that despite them being a American firm they are for hire from any country willing to pay .

I would not be shocked, but I would expect their involvement being rather small.

So what are the protesters protesting about on the Midan square ? Do you have any links that might answer ?

Executive summary:
1) Yanukovych tried to play neutral policy ("neutral" means ask both the EU and Russia for money by threatening to join the other side)

2) He refused to sing a deal meaning joining the EU in the long run.
-Western Ukraine feels absolutely no affiliation with Russia. (no more "brothers" than other countries that used to occupy Ukraine like Poland or Austro-Hungary). In western edges of Ukraine, Russians are new guests who ruled it for the first time in history from 1939
-Young generation treat the SU as old history, while they saw the West (on tourist trips, shopping, student exchange or illegal work)
-Kiev is in the west (Orange) Ukraine, a stronghold of opposition (it not worked in favour of Yanukovych) To make it more ironic it's also partially Russian language speaking region.
-joining EU sounds for Ukrainians like a chance to develop economical and guaranteed right to work legally in the West
-Ukrainians see Poland - both countries economically were not far in 1989, while now they diverged - Poland is much richer, diametrically less corrupted and part of the EU (technically speaking it had those features already a while before joining the EU, but in the last decade the gap widen)

(If it's still unclear - let's imagine saying some Mexicans that the US offers them joining the US and they no longer have sneak through border. But here is even more tempting because the EU is a looser federation.)

3) Yanukovych ordered to beat a small bunch of students occupying Maidan Square
It's seems like a serious error:
-there was a small group of students very low temperature, they might have dispersed at their own
-now there was a cause - instead of small group, united by hard to explain cause "pro-Europe", he got much bigger group: "anti-Yanukovych"
-to build "anti-Yanukovych" group helped: rampant corruption and economic crisis (he was neither fully responsible for any of those, but as president he got blamed for all such stuff)

4) Without Putin mending there would be small discontent in East Ukraine ( a few demonstration, not more). Those people would not die for Yanukovych (especially after showing his private palace on TV), they would just say that the new clique would not be any better.

5) Putin invaded Crimea and later east Ukraine - it seems that he miscalculated:
- assumed that Ukraine is in total mess unable to defend at all (it's just in partial mess, unable to defend effectively)
- that he has high support in east Ukraine (not special)
- he neglected that some local oligarchs dislike him and his not the only guy bringing to game paid thugs

From geopolitical perspective his move sounds now silly. Instead of invading Ukraine, he should have increase gas prices, force Ukrainians to make unpopular reforms and see how new gov looses support. With that he could try to regain his position in a few years. Now instead he got tiny Crimea (2 mln people, poor, needs cash from any central gov that controls it) and became a public enemy in most of the Ukraine.

Putin behaviour makes sense if:
-we assume miscalculation
OR
-we assume that he is indeed desperate, because if Ukrainians can overthrow a corrupted autocrat, then such success may inspire also Russians.

So far the reaction of the West is very mute, such inaction is quite openly mocked in my country (with jokes that Obama threats that he would un-friend Putin on Facebook). Whole inciting was done indirectly - by earlier supporting pro-democracy NGOs or even by showing Ukrainians nearby Slavic countries which implemented successful reforms.

Thank you for the reply .I know the historic and culture of present day Ukraine does have many aspects that does not make any decision in one way or another very clear . The latest offer to Kiev on gas prices seems to be better then good in a cost for the energy needs to run the country .Do you think Kiev will accept it ? To think that they might reject it would mean the gas stops flowing ,even to the EU . How would Ukraine replace the energy lost and at what cost ? How would they pay the billions for the gas they have already received ? a reply to: Shadow1024

originally posted by: the2ofusr1
Thank you for the reply .I know the historic and culture of present day Ukraine does have many aspects that does not make any decision in one way or another very clear . The latest offer to Kiev on gas prices seems to be better then good in a cost for the energy needs to run the country .Do you think Kiev will accept it ? To think that they might reject it would mean the gas stops flowing ,even to the EU . How would Ukraine replace the energy lost and at what cost ? How would they pay the billions for the gas they have already received ? a reply to: Shadow1024

Ukrainians point out that in this offer there is one trap - Russians can unilaterally withdraw the "discount" at any moment. If Russians offer just a new price without such clause, Ukrainians would presumably accept it.

Presumably. Ukrainian lacks money (which both makes their position uncomfortable, but also facilities them being tough negotiators in the game of chicken).
Ukrainian debt is also an argument for Ukraine. If Russian switch off gas, Ukrainians would presumably say, that they are very willing to have all debts regulated - means asking Russians to pay for annexing Crimea and subtract from that money Ukrainian gas debt.


Possible scenarios:

1) EU countries have contracted abundant amount of gas from Russia and would sell the surpluses to Ukraine. Russia would (officially) stop providing Ukraine with gas, while the gas would flow through Ukrainian pipelines. (my guess)

2) Compromise - paying debt in instalments and using a kind of IMF loan.

3) Switching off gas - Ukrainians have quite serious amount stored. They have also some minor sources. Everyone (EU, Ukraine, Russia) have here serious problems. You haven't asked one question - to whom Putin would sell his gas, without which his country would get bankrupt in long run? (no, he can't redirect it immediately to China, those pipelines would have to build first)

(anyway, there were already such stand-offs in the past in which Russia was switching off the pipeline for a few days)

Prior to the present situation , what relations did Ukraine have with EU ? $$ trading ?? And what relations with Russia ? $$ trading ? If Ukraine turns totality to EU How much $$ from Russia will have to be made up from EU ? ETA ..can you tel me what this is about ? a reply to: Shadow1024

originally posted by: the2ofusr1
Prior to the present situation , what relations did Ukraine have with EU ? $$ trading ?? And what relations with Russia ? $$ trading ? If Ukraine turns totality to EU How much $$ from Russia will have to be made up from EU ? a reply to: Shadow1024

Before - relations were OK, after all those whole riots started when did not sign a deal.

atlas.media.mit.edu...

Top 5 Export
destinations of Ukraine
Russia (27%), Turkey (5.4%), Italy (4.8%), Poland (3.8%), and India (3.5%)
Top 5 Import origins of
Ukraine
Russia (34%), Germany (8.4%), China (7.0%), Belarus (4.9%), and Poland
(4.6%)

They are still heavily economically bound with Russia. Presumably whole economy would have be restructured. (I would say impossible, however, we did so in Poland in early '90s, so at least theoretically its possible)

I would add one more feature - Ukraine has lots of inefficient heavy industry, that can exist only with cheap Russian gas (before the revolution it was heavily subsidized by Ukraine gov). Presumably that part have to be restructured anyway.

Do you have some spare cash for a new Marshall plan?

Or maybe you would prefer Russia to conquer Ukraine and go bankrupt shortly afterwards? (yes, I've heard ideas that actually a victory could be the most damaging thing for Russia, hard for me to say, but there is some point in it)

Sorry ,I have little cash lol . I have listened to others talking about Ukraine's finances and they say they are not good .They say they were not going to be good in the near future with Russia but may have had a better hope for the future .The cant for the life of them see any hope for the future by joining the EU and rejecting Russia .They say if they take the sole EU route that Ukraine will suffer greatly in the short term and will resemble Greece in the future . Do you see a situation that would make the short term less painful and the long term hopeful ? ETA can you tel me what this vid is about ? a reply to: Shadow1024

originally posted by: the2ofusr1
Sorry ,I have little cash lol . I have listened to others talking about Ukraine's finances and they say they are not good .They say they were not going to be good in the near future with Russia but may have had a better hope for the future .The cant for the life of them see any hope for the future by joining the EU and rejecting Russia .They say if they take the sole EU route that Ukraine will suffer greatly in the short term and will resemble Greece in the future . Do you see a situation that would make the short term less painful and the long term hopeful ? a reply to: Shadow1024

The only good scenario that I see for Ukraine - they would make serious reforms, because it would be a matter of national survival. Yes, a strong source of motivation for bold moves.

The other good idea - they would get conquered by Russia, suck its all money, and become back free after making Russia bankrupt.

(low probability scenarios, I know)

More probably are botched reforms, general unrest, or just stagnation and apathy.

Just to be fair: Greece fate is not the destiny. There some clearly very successful cases of transformation - Poland and Estonia. Lithuania and Latvia were also not bad. (except recent crisis)

The EU is not willing to flood Ukraine with money and that's the only thing that can prevent pain in short run. Germans neither want to annoy Russia, nor to pay any more.

Video:

Seems like damaging property belonging to Russian Embassy (no idea why they might be angry at Russians ).

Russia Today also recorded here "Slava Ukrainie; Gieroyom Slava" (glory to Ukraine, glory to heros) which according to Ukrainians is something like "God save the Queen", while according to Russian propaganda it's equivalent of "Heil Hitler". Same with the red-black flag of UPA (a Ukrainian resistance from WW2 that managed to fight against Germans, Russians and Polish).

Executive summary - Russian TV for internal purposes is trying to tell the story that they are fighting here with Nazis. (Most of Russians believe in that)

This is a good discussion over the Ukraine on crosstalk