Anyone care to bet on Ukraine's ability to launch a nuke at Russia?

From Wiki

When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, the newly independent Ukraine had on its territory what was the third largest strategic nuclear weapons arsenal in the world. It was larger than those of Britain, France, and China combined. On June 1, 1996 Ukraine became a non-nuclear nation when it sent the last of its 1,900 strategic nuclear warheads to Russia for dismantling.[1] The first shipment of nuclear weapons from Ukraine to Russia (by train) was in March 1994.[2] In return for giving up its nuclear weapons, Ukraine, the United States of America, Russia, and the United Kingdom signed the 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances, pledging to respect Ukraine territorial integrity, a pledge that was arguably broken by Russia's 2014 invasion of Crimea.[3]

Ukraine had 220 strategic weapon carriers on its territory, including:
130 SS-19
46 sophisticated SS-24 missiles
25 Tu-95MS heavy strategic bombers carriers
19 Tu-160 supersonic strategic bombers carriers
1,080 long-range cruise missiles
plus several hundred 'Other' units of a tactical nuclear weapons.



They gave up their warheads but kept many of the original launch platforms. on top of that the National Science Center
Kharkov Institute of Physics and Technology The place where they built and designed nukes is still around

While basically decommissioned.... Ukrainian nuclear weapon bases have long sat abandoned... but the launch platforms remain. stacked out rockets and missiles with only their warheads and fuel removed.

After the disintegration of the USSR, Ukraine found itself in possession of the world's third largest nuclear arsenal. There were 176 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launchers with some 1,240 warheads on Ukrainian territory. This force consisted of 130 SS-19s, each capable of delivering six nuclear weapons, and 46 SS-24s, each armed with ten nuclear weapons. An additional 14 SS-24 missiles were present in Ukraine, but not operationally deployed with warheads. Several dozen bombers with strategic nuclear capabilities were armed with some 600 air-launched missiles,

source

Granted "Complete" liquidation of ICBMs was completed in January 4, 2001....The bombers are gone... But... the Ukraine was the place where most of these weapons were first designed, built, and deployed... Many of those people involved still live in and around those bases. Many of the facilities used to build nukes are still there and ready to make operational again.

So then the big question is...

will Ukraine remember that fact and if they do, if their not already doing it... How long will it take them to slap together a new nuke at of all those left over parts they have scattered all over the place?

reply to post by HardCorps


I wouldn't bet on Ukraine to produce and launch a nuclear missile. I think that would be suicidal. Hell, that would be suicidal even to any other nuclear power.

However, I wouldn't be surprised, at all, if news about some sort of missile-shield defense was suddenly sighted or found inside Ukraine.

You know, the same type of defense NATO wanted to put there for years, and was making Russia nervous.

HardCorps
How long will it take them to slap together a new nuke at of all those left over parts they have scattered all over the place?

edit on 24-3-2014 by HardCorps because: (no reason given)

too long, too late.

if you're thinking about that, don't you think Russian military generals have something like that on their minds?

I'm almost sure Putin will finish all of this faster than they could build the nuclear weapon if they intended to.

reply to post by GarrusVasNormandy


I don't know man...
I mean with all those tanks they got on their border?

it would only take one nuke to make Putin pause and you know they got to be thinking about it.

reply to post by demus


Yup...
If I were Russian just the rumor of would send me over the border and make me pray I was in time.
I just don't know how long it would take to put one back in operation?

Anyone out there know how long it takes to make a new warhead if you already have all the equipment and people around who know how to make one?

reply to post by HardCorps


you forgot about the main ingredient...
do they have uranium they could use for a bomb?

They appear to be taking steps toward becoming the new North Korea. Unfortunate. I hope they will still have the elections they planned in the next few months. I'm not sure the nuclear war platform will win many votes but if the interim government wants to run on that that is their prerogative.

reply to post by demus


That they do...
if you click on the map I posted you'll see their mining op is just north of Crimea.
Still well within Ukraine borders and control.

reply to post by HardCorps

well, I'm sure the "evil invaders" are fully aware of that location then.

I'd be amazed if the Russians didn't have someone who could give them at least 72 hours notice of such a plan.
Given that, they'd either pour armour across the border while bombing the heck out of whatever bases are in use or they'll sit back, take the shot and make a big, glass car park in revenge.

reply to post by HardCorps


They don't have that ability .. (I hope)
/

And did they actually give up all those nukes? Does anyone really know for sure? When the Soviet Union collapsed and lot of things weren't exactly fully accounted for. Is it implausible that they may have one or two warheads locked away for a rainy day ...

Whether or not Putin comes over the border might be an indication.

Of course they do, this is one of those wishful thinking sort of questions like "has my teenager been exposed to sex drugs or alcohol" The answer is yes no matter how much you want to believe it is no. All you can do is hope those involved exercise good judgement.

Even if they don't the place is chock full of good scientists, bio weapons are easy and a worse fear for the global population. It's not like you need the 99% kill rate of Russian and American programs, 40% kill rate and airborne waxes 2.5 Billion people.

Interesting! Two nukes would be enough. If they were detonated on the ground without warning, it could seriously hamper Russia's ability to make a ground assault. Could Putin push the button with the world watching?

I'd bet they didn't really give them all up.

I think that the signers of the budapest memorandum have failed in their obligations under that treaty. So imo, Ukraine now has the legal right to make nuclear weapons. I also think they should. If they do, however, the budapest memorandum would surely be void in America's eyes. America would have no legal obligation to take action against Russia, I dont think.

If Russian intelligence discovered that they were doing this, I wouldn't put it past them to invade the rest of Ukraine.

All in all, I think Ukraine ignoring their obligations under that treaty would only make matters worse for them. I dont think this will happen at this time.

I myself have wondered given certain Ukrainian official's statements that they might have a Snuke (Suitcase Nuke) or 3 hidden deep for a situation such as this. The sudden breakup of the Soviet Union was very insecure time for the stockpiles of nuclear weapons. Some were left in unguarded sheet metal shakes with nothing more than a rusty padlock to secure them. Not to mention say you are a Ukrainian military officer that knows your future is very uncertain, you might want to take a toy or two for future leverage or sale on the black market. It would have been just about as easy as walking out of your former place of employment with a stapler after losing your job. Scary stuff indeed. I remember seeing on vice that they investigated an instance were a French Journalist bought a nuclear warhead on the black market in Bulgaria. Vice found the black market arms dealer that brought some nuclear components to his interview to prove that the story was no lie.



If they can be found in Bulgaria I guarantee it is just as easy in Ukraine.

demus
reply to post by HardCorps

 

you forgot about the main ingredient...
do they have uranium they could use for a bomb?

They have to many Nuke plants not too! The only problem they have is time. Putin is getting ready to invade and unless they have some warheads secretly laying around which is unlikely giving how many FSB their are in Ukraine. Their have many people there to make sure not one of those weapons made it into terrorist hands till they were all handed back to Russia.

If Putin thought it was a possibility then he would bomb the hell out of the site where the weapon was or at least try. The U.S. needs to airlift in a lot of Patriot missile batteries secretly and set them up in a hurry at night to protect Ukraine's air bases and leadership bunkers.

NATO and the U.S. need to evacuate that giant crap hole in A-STAN and send the troops to Poland and Turkey.

onthedownlow
Interesting! Two nukes would be enough. If they were detonated on the ground without warning, it could seriously hamper Russia's ability to make a ground assault. Could Putin push the button with the world watching?

Seriously? The whole world would see Ukraine strike first and Putin would hit them back hard. Putin would be shot if he did not respond in kind.

reply to post by BigDave-AR


That is a very scary video right there. Hopefully the CIA, MI6, Mossad or FSB nabbed that warhead trigger. I do recall weapons grade material being intercepted a few different times in Europe and Russia so hopefully that is what it was, them not wanting to scare the crap out of everyone saying it was a warhead trigger.