Does Israel really have nuclear weapons?

Something has been nagging at me for a couple of weeks now.

It seems “common knowledge” that Israel has nuclear weapons. But maybe that isn’t the case. Maybe it’s just a bluff to keep enemies at bay. Consider:

Israel will neither confirm nor deny that it has nuclear weapons, yet the whole world seems to think they do. If the whole world “knows” you have nuclear weapons, and you do, why not just admit it? Nuclear weapons are a deterrent. If your enemies know you have them, they will be less likely to attack. On the other hand, if you don’t have nuclear weapons, and your enemies think you do, it’s just as good as having them.

Israel refuses to allow any inspection of their alleged nuclear capabilities or become a signatory to the NPT. Would that be because that would let the cat out of the bag?

Possessing nuclear weapons has its own set of problems. Maintenance, for instance. You can’t just stick a missile in a silo and forget about it. You need highly trained and qualified people and lots of money and resources to keep these things operational. Generally accepted estimates put Israel’s nuclear warheads somewhere between 60 and 200. Money for the upkeep on such an arsenal would be hard to hide in a national budget.

Testing would be another problem. Israel is a pretty small country, land-wise. Where could they test a nuclear device that wouldn’t attract attention? And on the subject of land, where would Israel put them? Take a look at a map of Israel and try to figure where you would put them. You would be hard pressed to find a place more than 40 miles from a potential enemy.

Then there is the secrecy. In a country where all nearly all males are conscripted into military service, it seems likely that someone, somewhere, sometime, would let something slip. A location where the weapons are stored, a shipment of materials to a certain location, a high concentration of physicists near a certain place, etc. It seems to me that any reasonably adept intelligence agency could pinpoint the locations of nuclear weapons just by connecting some logistical dots.

So, what say ye? Israel’s nuclear capabilities: fact or bluff?

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And it should go without saying, but I'll say it anyway. I'd prefer this thread would not turn into a pro- or anti- Israel thread. I just want to consider the conspiracy theory that Israel may not have nuclear weapons.

reply to post by VictorVonDoom


Does a bear sh*t in the woods?

I highly doubt they do not have nuclear weapons I am sure they have hoards and hoards of them being what they represent and and what region they are in . Of course they want to close the doors on inspectors I am sure they probably have a few nasty things that would break treaties nukes , bio weapons all paid and bought for by american tax payers .

if a country like north korea and how poor they are yet manage to buy themselves a nuke i sure israel can too

reply to post by BDBinc

Does a bear sh*t in the woods?

Can't say, as I have never hung around a bear that long to find out.

reply to post by freedomSlave


Ah, but Israel hasn't signed any treaties to worry about. And we've detected North Korea's nuclear tests, has there been any sign of a nuclear weapons test from Israel? In a country that small, it shouldn't be hard to spot. Also, it would be a violation of the NPT for the US to provide Israel nuclear weapons.

They may not "have them"

But they certainly have policies designed around their offensive use.

One such is the "Samson option" Where if Israel faces its fall, it will launch its missiles at everyone they can, including their own Allies.

AS if Israel is falling, it means the world has allowed another Holocaust.

eta

It is believed that Israel had possessed an operational nuclear weapons capability by 1967, with the mass production of nuclear warheads occurring immediately after the Six-Day War.[2] Although no official statistics exist, it has been estimated that Israel possesses from 75 to as many as 400 nuclear weapons, which are reported to include thermonuclear weapons in the megaton range.[3][4][5] Israel is also reported to possess a wide range of different systems, including neutron bombs, tactical nuclear weapons, and suitcase nukes.[6] Israel is believed to manufacture its nuclear weapons at the Negev Nuclear Research Center.

Delivery mechanisms include Jericho intercontinental ballistic missiles, with a range of 11,500 km, and which are believed to provide a second-strike option. Israel's nuclear-capable ballistic missiles are believed to be buried so far underground that they would survive a nuclear attack.[7][8] Additionally, Israel is believed to have an offshore nuclear second-strike capability, using submarine-launched nuclear-capable cruise missiles, which can be launched from the Israeli Navy's Dolphin-class submarines.[9] The Israeli Air Force has F-15I and F-16I Sufa fighter aircraft are capable of delivering nuclear weapons at long distances using conformal fuel tanks and their Aerial refueling fleet of modified Boeing 707's.[10]

The Israeli government maintains a policy of deliberate ambiguity on whether it has nuclear weapons, saying only that it would "not be the first to introduce nuclear weapons in the Middle East."[11] Former International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Mohamed ElBaradei regarded Israel as a state possessing nuclear weapons.[12] Much of what is known about Israel's nuclear program comes from revelations in 1986 by Mordechai Vanunu, a technician at the Negev Nuclear Research Center who served an 18-year prison sentence as a result. Israel has not signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, but supports establishment of a Middle East Zone free of weapons of mass destruction.[13]

reply to post by VictorVonDoom

Its been revealed by a couple of sources, the most famous being Mordechai Vanunu.

According to him, the plant had been upgraded several times to increase production of plutonium and in 1985 could make 1.2 kg per week, enough for up to 12 nuclear warheads a year.

Israel's estimated nuclear capability had to be revised from a handful of weapons to approximately 100-200 warheads, ranging from battlefield weapons to warheads that could lay waste whole cities.

U.S. Air Force: Israel has 400 nukes, building naval force.

A United States Air Force report asserts that Israel is building a nuclear naval force...

It is the first time a U.S. military institution has stated that Israel has produced a hydrogen bomb. The number of purported Israeli nuclear weapons cited in the report is double that of previous assessments.

The report, sponsored by the air force's Counterproliferation Center, asserts that the navy can deploy any of what it asserts is Israel's 400 atomic and hydrogen weapons, Middle East Newsline reported. The center is located in the Maxwell Air Force Base in Alabama.

So yes.

Izrael has nukes.

reply to post by VictorVonDoom

So, what say ye? Israel’s nuclear capabilities: fact or bluff?

Well according to this they are to have 80 warheads.

www.theguardian.com...

But nobody really is sure, except maybe the US and England and they aren't going to say anything about it.

Yes. They have nuclear weapons. Good question though.

The truth about Israel's secret nuclear arsenal

Nuclear Weapons: Who Has What at a Glance

Nuclear Weapons - Israel

Israel has not confirmed that it has nuclear weapons and officially maintains that it will not be the first country to introduce nuclear weapons into the Middle East. Yet the existence of Israeli nuclear weapons is a "public secret" by now due to the declassification of large numbers of formerly highly classified US government documents which show that the United States by 1975 was convinced that Israel had nuclear weapons.

reply to post by gladtobehere


Good stuff. Thanks.

Iran is about to wipe Israel off the face of the planet..

well questions like this make me wonder, was 3 mile island, chernobyl a test. what about the recent nuclear waste leak in NM all about.

Was it to test low yield nuclear fallout? I wouldnt be surprised if we and Isreal have a low yield nuke designed to take out a small region of troops. The recent nuclear disasters could be to test the effects of small yield fallout.

3 mile island, medium to low....casualties acceptable, Chernobyl, casualties above acceptable limits...from fall out, not initial explosion. the leak in NM...have to wait and see... Fukushima, just natural.

Well, considering that the things offered as proof that Israel built a nuclear arsenal, plutonium enrichment, are also things that Iran is actively pursuing and the same people swearing up and down that Israel has nukes will also say that Iran is NOT pursuing nukes ...

Also, considering that everyone in the world thought Saddam had weapons of mass destruction, even his own men, when he really didn't because he was using the ruse to fool everyone into leaving him alone among other things ...

I don't know. Maybe they do, and maybe they don't. You bring up some good points though. Where exactly would a country that size hide their nuclear arsenal?

Do they even need their own nukes?

America loves Israel and would nuke anyone they asked to be nuked in a heart beat.

weather they have their own doesnt really matter (but they totally do)

en.wikipedia.org...

pologerado
Iran is about to wipe Israel off the face of the planet..

A silly, stupid thing to do which would ensure Iran's complete destruction.

reply to post by tinner07


Heres the thing I think people are not getting.

A Nuclear test is not needed, It is simply a good way for a nation, that was with out, to show that they have.

IF your intel is correct, and your research, OR you have outside help from people in the know, you can build a working bomb and be pretty damn sure its going to work.

As a purely theoretical exercise, the basic mechanics of say the first bomb, was complex but not overly so compared to standard electronics.

I would say that any electronics manufacture has the base skills to make a basic bomb, all they lack is the Radioactive material, weapons grade etc.

THATS why Nuclear enrichment is such a warning signs, IF they have the knowledge, and the material the only warning you may get is a mushroom cloud where you don't want it.

reply to post by schuyler


Except if their goal is to wipe Israel off the face of the earth, they will have achieved that, and if they truly do not care if they live or die, in fact, death in the furtherance of their particular religious belief is the highest reward ... well, would they care too much if they ensure their own destruction? It martyrs them.

After reading through some of the links posted here, I can't help but notice one glaring coincidence: all the sources that say they have evidence of Israel's nuclear weapons are either Israeli or American. I also noted that Dr. Vanunu spent "more than half his time in solitary," meaning no one could really verify whether he was in a cell during that time or sipping margaritas at Tahiti. May be a bit of a stretch, but this is just good clean conspiracy fun, right?

The idea still nags at me: if Israel has the goods, why not show? What do they gain by a public, "Maybe we do, maybe we don't" stance? The whole point of having nuclear weapons is to deter your enemies, and for that to work, your enemy has to know you have them.

ketsuko
reply to post by schuyler

 

Except if their goal is to wipe Israel off the face of the earth, they will have achieved that, and if they truly do not care if they live or die, in fact, death in the furtherance of their particular religious belief is the highest reward ... well, would they care too much if they ensure their own destruction? It martyrs them.

The "Iranians as martyrs" theory is not new. It just portrays the Iranian leadership as particularly stupid and/or full of religious zeal. Not only would such an action eradicate Iran, but also would involve the heart of Muslim "territory" likely making the Middle East, including such holy paces as the Dome on the Rock and Mecca completely uninhabitable. It also wouldn't solve the "problem" as the Iranians see it. It would only take out a quarter to a third of the Jewish population while taking out several magnitudes more of Muslims, leaving those who are not nearly as antagonistic toward Israel as the Middle Eastern Muslim countries are.

In The Martyr State, myth and the consensus on Iran that never was Daniel Larison discusses this idea in the context of Norman Podhertz' discussion of the subject.

Podhoretz includes the fantasy that Iran would be willing to annihilate itself in a nuclear war for religious reasons as one of these “indisputable” considerations, which confirms that the “old consensus” he refers to never existed anywhere except among hard-liners. The idea that Iran was and still is a “martyr-state” has never been widely held outside of very hawkish circles. Indeed, accepting this idea as plausible, much less “indisputable,” is one of the best giveaways that someone is a hard-liner on Iran with a very distorted understanding of the country. For that matter, the idea exists and circulates in the Iran debate to this day because hard-liners keep citing one another’s arguments to bolster the incredibly weak case for the “martyr-state” claim. So in this op-ed Podhoretz cites Bernard Lewis, whose understanding of Iran’s nuclear program in connection with Shi’ism is extremely warped to say the least, and assumes that Lewis’ view was the consensus view instead of the deeply contentious and ridiculous one that is always was. If he believes something this far-fetched is “indisputable,” is it any wonder that Podhoretz is confused by the “new consensus” that flatly rejects this idea as absurd?

A search of the literature will show you that there is quite a bit of contempt from both the left and the right on this idea, with ample reasoning on why it fails. It is not taken seriously.

reply to post by VictorVonDoom


As of the mid 90's they were rumored to have approximately 240 nuclear weapon's at least some of which were missile based, the average yield was supposedly comparable to the west at 15 to 40 megaton's and though I can not remember whom said it one of the israeli politicians was claimed to have strongly hinted that if israel is attacked they will be deployed, if israel is annihilated they intend to annihilate there annihilator and one of the reason's both russian and america made a forceful presence in the middle east is that once russia got wind of this they saw the potential that there little power game's, ( using the arabs to wage a proxy war on US allies and asset's abroad by supplying the regime's of these country's whom where anti israeli and also Anti US with weapon's and delivery systems ) could actually trigger world war three which despite there constant arm wrestling and testing no one really wanted.
Even today if israel is attacked and uses it's mutual annihilation policy the outcome is sure to degenerate into a much larger conflict and the fallout would likely cover vast swathes of northern africa, europe and asia.
What you should be asking is this, does the nation which provided some of the best atomic scientists and weapons engineers to the atomic industry likely to not have the very weapon that many of there dual nationality citizens helped to progressively develop.
And given there Sworn oath never to go like sheep again to there death's without fighting do you think they would not use it.