Peru-Chile Could Experience Megathrust Quake as Six Quakes Over 6 Mag Strike Area

reply to post by TrueAmerican


I don't think the area is finished just yet. Another moderate quake incoming right now. Mag 5.6, 112 kms deep.

G002.C..BHZ link
This quake is closer to (farther north) to G001, but that seismo looks like it got knocked for a loop.

reply to post by TrueAmerican

TA, you were right about the possible foreshocking...Chile had an 8.0 as of 4:46 pacific time.

earthquake.usgs.gov...

Thoughts and prayers going out to Chile.

Wow...good call on this. People of the FE forum are awesome.

reply to post by TrueAmerican

Wow TA you called it, the 8.0 struck, wonder if you are right as a fore shock. Earthquake reports from 1500 km away coming in but nothing for the immediate vicinity. 4 buoys in event mode on the pacific and one in the Caribbean.

From my post http:here

This was felt as far away as 1500 km s of the epicentre, what concerns me is the closest report is 435 km. What does this mean for those closer, are they not able to submit a report? ESMC That is big and shallow!

Witness location : (Chile) (1522 km S from epicenter)
The lamps moved around. We are 1500 km from epicenter
edit on 4/1/2014 by whatnext21 because: (no reason given)



Pacific Warning... A TSUNAMI WARNING AND WATCH ARE IN EFFECT ...

A TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR

CHILE / PERU / ECUADOR

A TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR

COLOMBIA / PANAMA / COSTA RICA / NICARAGUA

FOR ALL OTHER AREAS COVERED BY THIS BULLETIN... IT IS FOR
INFORMATION ONLY AT THIS TIME.

THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 2347Z 01 APR 2014
COORDINATES - 19.8 SOUTH 70.8 WEST
DEPTH - 10 KM
LOCATION - NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHERN CHILE
MAGNITUDE - 8.0

MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY

GAUGE LOCATION LAT LON TIME AMPL PER
------------------- ----- ------ ----- --------------- -----
PISAGUA CL 19.6S 70.2W 2352Z 1.92M / 6.3FT 44MIN
IQUIQUE CL 20.2S 70.1W 2351Z 1.70M / 5.6FT 56MIN

LAT - LATITUDE (N-NORTH, S-SOUTH)
LON - LONGITUDE (E-EAST, W-WEST)
TIME - TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT (Z IS UTC IS GREENWICH TIME)
AMPL - TSUNAMI AMPLITUDE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
IT IS ...NOT... CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).
PER - PERIOD OF TIME IN MINUTES(MIN) FROM ONE WAVE TO THE NEXT.

EVALUATION

SEA LEVEL READINGS INDICATE A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. IT MAY HAVE
BEEN DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTS NEAR THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER AND
COULD ALSO BE A THREAT TO MORE DISTANT COASTS. AUTHORITIES SHOULD
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION IN RESPONSE TO THIS POSSIBILITY. THIS
CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SEA LEVEL DATA TO DETERMINE THE
EXTENT AND SEVERITY OF THE THREAT.

FOR ALL AREAS - WHEN NO MAJOR WAVES ARE OBSERVED FOR TWO HOURS
AFTER THE ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OR DAMAGING WAVES HAVE NOT
OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS THEN LOCAL AUTHORITIES CAN ASSUME
THE THREAT IS PASSED. DANGER TO BOATS AND COASTAL STRUCTURES CAN
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO RAPID CURRENTS. AS LOCAL
CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE A WIDE VARIATION IN TSUNAMI WAVE ACTION THE
ALL CLEAR DETERMINATION MUST BE MADE BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES AT FORECAST POINTS
WITHIN THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS ARE GIVEN BELOW. ACTUAL
ARRIVAL TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE
LARGEST. A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE TIME BETWEEN
SUCCESSIVE WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.

LOCATION FORECAST POINT COORDINATES ARRIVAL TIME
-------------------------------- ------------ ------------
CHILE IQUIQUE 20.2S 289.9E 0002Z 02 APR
ARICA 18.5S 289.7E 0011Z 02 APR
ANTOFAGASTA 23.3S 289.6E 0017Z 02 APR
CALDERA 27.1S 289.2E 0046Z 02 APR
COQUIMBO 29.9S 288.6E 0111Z 02 APR
VALPARAISO 33.0S 288.4E 0135Z 02 APR
TALCAHUANO 36.7S 286.9E 0219Z 02 APR
CORRAL 39.8S 286.5E 0251Z 02 APR
GOLFO_DE_PENAS 47.1S 285.1E 0403Z 02 APR
EASTER_ISLAND 27.1S 250.6E 0532Z 02 APR
PUERTO_MONTT 41.5S 287.0E 0546Z 02 APR
PERU MOLLENDO 17.1S 288.0E 0021Z 02 APR
SAN_JUAN 15.3S 284.8E 0039Z 02 APR
LA_PUNTA 12.1S 282.8E 0131Z 02 APR
TALARA 4.6S 278.5E 0218Z 02 APR
CHIMBOTE 9.0S 281.2E 0225Z 02 APR
PIMENTAL 6.9S 280.0E 0250Z 02 APR
ECUADOR LA_LIBERTAD 2.2S 278.8E 0239Z 02 APR
ESMERELDAS 1.2N 280.2E 0327Z 02 APR
BALTRA_ISLAND 0.5S 269.7E 0429Z 02 APR
COLOMBIA TUMACO 1.8N 281.1E 0346Z 02 APR
BAHIA_SOLANO 6.3N 282.6E 0417Z 02 APR
BUENAVENTURA 3.8N 282.8E 0433Z 02 APR
PANAMA PUERTO_PINA 7.4N 282.0E 0427Z 02 APR
PUNTA_MALA 7.5N 280.0E 0429Z 02 APR
PUNTA_BURICA 8.0N 277.1E 0441Z 02 APR
COSTA RICA CABO_MATAPALO 8.4N 276.7E 0441Z 02 APR
PUERTO_QUEPOS 9.4N 275.8E 0514Z 02 APR
CABO_SAN_ELENA 10.9N 274.0E 0531Z 02 APR
NICARAGUA SAN_JUAN_DL_SUR 11.2N 274.1E 0557Z 02 APR
PUERTO_SANDINO 12.2N 273.2E 0609Z 02 APR
CORINTO 12.5N 272.8E 0609Z 02 APR

BULLETINS WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.
THE TSUNAMI WARNING AND WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE.

THE U.S. NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER WILL ISSUE PRODUCTS
FOR ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...WASHINGTON...OREGON...CALIFORNIA.


4 Buoys in event modes on the pacific and one in the Caribbean. - See more at: www.abovetopsecret.com...

Saw a Facebook post saying a 8.0 just hit, and the first thing I thought of was this thread.

Good call TA (but hate that it happened of course)!

Wow. You seem to be on the money with this, TA. Chile just had an 8.0, and a very shallow one.

The Pacific Ring of fire has been very active over the past couple of years.

reply to post by Skadi_the_Evil_Elf


upgraded to 8.2, CNN, people evacuating areas of northern Chile, 62 miles off the coast of Chile

reply to post by eriktheawful


Same here. TA has been doing amazing work on this. Great work, TA!

Aleister
reply to post by Skadi_the_Evil_Elf

 

upgraded to 8.2, CNN, people evacuating areas of northern Chile, 62 miles off the coast of Chile

edit on 1-4-2014 by Aleister because: (no reason given)

edit on 1-4-2014 by Aleister because: (no reason given)

The most powerful quake ever recorded, a 9.5 in 1960, was also in Chile. This country is seismically violent. The have a high frequency of quakes over 6 in this zone.
Chile is a subduction zone, where the most powerful quakes happen.

reply to post by TrueAmerican


What a call 👍 You are awesome...you hit the nail on the head.

I have to ask you this....what do you think of the recent activity out here on the west coast? Specifically, Los Angeles County. Sorry, if you've posted anything related to my question already.

But, I gotta know what your opinion is. You can U2U me if you like.

Well folks, sometimes it's hours, sometimes it's days, and sometimes it's months or years. In this case it was about two weeks.

But I swear they ought to make it state law that when we see certain precursory, big seismicity like this, where the main shock is less than 1.0 mag from the biggest aftershocks, that a mandatory warning be issued.

The sad part is, that in this area that 8.2 could STILL be another foreshock. It could be. Now I really don't think that, but the problem is it has happened before. This is one of, if not the most, dangerous thrust faults in the world- and there is just no telling.

Thanks for the applauses mods, and thanks for the kind words folks, and sad to say that unfortunately I was right. I didn't want to be, I swear. But I hope the casualties are minimal, and they should be. People in Chile are no strangers to this. The authorities were quick to call for evacuations along the coast, and rightly so. Just getting home from work, but honestly at first I thought this was an April Fools joke.

To update you on what the fault is doing, now that I have my rig on it, yeah, as would be expected, it is quake after quake occurring right now, as aftershocks take over. The 8.2 clipped the seismometer in Limon Verde, Chile, it appears. But I have a digital counts on it, and it hit 4e7 there. I don't know that it could handle anything much bigger. It looks absolutely nasty on spectro, solid red.

Pulling a 30-day at USGS, here is how this looks now, just in the area of the 8.2:


But that whole area, including some in Peru, was showing activity at various depths and distances from the subduction zone. For a couple weeks. I can't say I am surprised.

My fear is,and I apologize if this has been covered, that a potential tsunami from this may once again hit the shores of Japan

Way to go TA!!! I read a lot of your threads and I hope some folks down South did and they are truly thankful for the foresight on this 8.2 Quake that generated a Tsunami. I heard a 6.2' tsunami, but don't know if that was out to sea or onshore yet. Obviously if it was out to sea, when it hits shallow water it will rise up. Keep up the good work TA!

Ha! you were right about it leading to a big one!,
but I'd hold back on calling it a MEGATHRUST quake.
2m tsunami on the Chile/Peru coast, 2-3 people killed, but don't know by what just yet. Been some landslides in Chile I believe.

I see its in the northern cluster of the previous aftershocks, in the area that started to build at the 7 day mark, after the last M6

FWIW, and its probably irrelevant now, I stopped the Tarapaca page at the 12 day mark, on the 28th March, but picked it up over on GSAIM again since

Well what we have to watch out for now is that a high 7 or another 8+ does not occur. Because if they do, that is going to spell real bad news. But so far, everything looks like aftershocks, even the 6.2 and the 5.9. As long as they stay down there in magnitude, Chile will probably not get anything in the 9 mag region.

The fault is still moving, and I am getting quake after quake from there on spectro. All smaller though, and let's hope the 8.2 was the worst of it. *keeps fingers crossed*

reply to post by TrueAmerican


I have been following this thread since it opened.........Awesome......Truly awesome prediction. I am not an expert and that is why I never post in these threads but I do read them.


What if this is another fore shock? I would love any and all info you might have on that. We should all be glad minds like yours found a home on ATS.

Oh dear. I repeat:

www.abovetopsecret.com...

The M8.2 1960 earthquake was a foreshock that occurred the previous day to the great M9.5 Chilean earthquake.

earthquake.usgs.gov...

*gulp*

This was also an 8.2. Hmm. Please. No. Just no.

TrueAmerican
Oh dear. I repeat:

www.abovetopsecret.com...

The M8.2 1960 earthquake was a foreshock that occurred the previous day to the great M9.5 Chilean earthquake.

earthquake.usgs.gov...

*gulp*

This was also an 8.2. Hmm. Please. No. Just no.

That would be profoundly, and indescribably horrible beyond all words if that were to be the case. I sincerely hope not, but considering the "loose cannon", as it were, that this area is considered to be regarding huge quakes...Not letting one's guard down for a day or two yet would be very wise.

reply to post by Nyiah


Well I just want you all to keep in mind where the initial quakes all occurred that started this mess. Look at the pic in the OP. I described how they were occurring up and down most of the coasts of Peru and Chile. We've also had them at various distances inland, basically fitting the subducted slab depth profiles.

Here is 30-day 2.5+ magnitudes from USGS:



Now if that is indeed the intended area of rupture of this thing, then this could be seriously bad. Like very very seriously bad. Like worse than the 9.5, because over 1000 km of rupture could occur.

Now the chances of that are damn slim, mind you. But still. It is scary as hell to think it. So let's not think it, k?

*not thinking it, just noting it*

On the other hand if one truly catastrophic earthquake, like over 9.7 or even a 10, occurs only once every 10,000 years, you never know. This would be one place it could happen- the fault length is there to support it.

True American, do you think something unprecedented is going on with plate movement activity of the Nazca plate rubbing against the South American Plate at a rate much more faster and violent than before? I don't have much expertise on this area of study in terms of geology, so I would like to ask for your insight and opinion.