What's going on at Yellowstone part 2

New thread at moderators request.
The Original "What's Going On At Yellowstone?" thread is available for viewing here:
www.abovetopsecret.com...

Left off at Helium being present at the park - at levels that were not expected.

www.latimes.com...

The discussion was about the report of this helium being concerning. I would really like to hear more on this because I'm not sure if the silence from our experts is because it is rediculous to be concerned or because they have the same questions.

1 - said there was an unexpected amount of helium.
2 - said it's normal - has been released for billions of years - ongoing.
3 - said it is trapped in rocks for eons and then released when tectonic or volcanic activity is present.


So is it ongoing or only released when tectonic or volcanic activity is more prevalent. And why were they surprised by the readings. Other volcanoes have had helium measurements so they must have done these in the past at Yellowstone. It's just concerning because Mammouth Mountain in California just had a swarm and while we aren't seeing any swarms here presently, if it means something I would personally like to know what that is (if anything).



If someone else would prefer to start this thread I'm fine with this one being closed.



MOD NOTE

reply to post by Dianec


The original Yellowstone thread has been closed? Can you link the thread here, maybe at the top of your OP, so there is a continuous record. Thanks.

Have to sign off, so in case the OP is off-line too, here's the link to the legendary and epic "What's going on at Yellowstone" thread:

www.abovetopsecret.com...

reply to post by Aleister


I haven't visited that thread in ages....glad this new one got started...good to keep an eye on yellowstone

So why doesn't anyone quote this from the very linked article in the OP?

"This really isn't a volcano story," Lowenstern said. "But it reveals how the Earth's crust behaves on a long time frame. The crust 'holds its breath' for long periods of time, and then releases it during tectonically and volcanically active bursts."

If it's not a volcano story according to the man in charge, then what is there to worry about?

And why doesn't anyone mention the CO2 that YS puts out? Jake Lowenstern has said before that Yellowstone is one of the most prolific sources of CO2 on our planet. And CO2 emissions are more commonly used to predict volcanic eruptions, rather than helium.

So we got a zillion tons of both CO2 AND Helium coming from YS, ground lift episodes, seismicity, and yet still- no eruption. The answer is they still don't know, and they don't CLAIM to know what the signs will be. Cause all the signs are already there, with the exception of harmonic or other tremor, and LP events. But there may not be any, in this case. Remember, this is a different animal than a typical stratovolcano. They now think it's magmatic buoyancy that is the trigger at these large calderas.

For whatever it's worth, I am trying to get some more opinions from a few sources on the high helium output at YS. And so far, nothing. I think they are still digesting it all. And if it meant trouble, the alert level would have probably already been raised. It hasn't been. So chill out people.

There's one thing that's nearly for sure: Seismicity. If magma moves in an eruptive fashion, especially if it's explosive, it will cause extreme seismicity. And it could be that's all the warning we will get. It will likely be pretty obvious. What may not be obvious is the time between the start of such seismicity and the big boom. So we watch it. Any of the earthquake swarms COULD be the start, and so that's why it is critical during such swarms to monitor their intensity and depth, among other things. I watch, but I don't wait. That boy has cried "wolf" too many times. When the wolf finally does show up though, I believe it will be pretty unexpected- due to the extremely large nature of that magma chamber.

reply to post by TrueAmerican

"This really isn't a volcano story," Lowenstern said. "But it reveals how the Earth's crust behaves on a long time frame. The crust 'holds its breath' for long periods of time, and then releases it during tectonically and volcanically active bursts."

That's a strange statement to me, actually... in saying the helium levels aren't related to volcanic activity, he explains that the helium releases during tectonically and volcanically active bursts.

Sort of like saying "Yes, the ground shook your house to rubble, but this isn't an earthquake story-- just some built up pressure along the fault line, which was released during quake activity..."

...in my mind anyway.

reply to post by Dianec


Oh for Petes sake. It's a volcanic area. Of course it has some volcanic activity. But the sky really is falling....

TrueAmerican
So why doesn't anyone quote this from the very linked article in the OP?

"This really isn't a volcano story," Lowenstern said. "But it reveals how the Earth's crust behaves on a long time frame. The crust 'holds its breath' for long periods of time, and then releases it during tectonically and volcanically active bursts."

I did.

Back on page 719 of the old thread. And a follow up post.

I get that Yellowstone has gone off in a big way in the past, that it may again someday, and that we have only been studying it for a blink of an eye in geologic terms. But I think many people choose to overlook the consensus thinking by the vulcanologists who study Yellowstone.
Doom talk is much more titilatting .

From a news blurb on the YVO main page

Contrary to some media reports, Yellowstone is not "overdue" for a supereruption. Indeed, it is quite possible that such an eruption will never again occur from the Yellowstone region. Scientists agree that smaller eruptions are likely in the future, but the probability of ANY sort of eruption at Yellowstone still remains very low over the next 10 to 100 years.

My understanding is that the scientists were caught off guard by the huge ratio of helium-4 compared to helium-3 at Yellowstone.

If the crustal rocks above the magma chamber at Yellowstone were more like the crust above Long Valley caldera, for instance, there wouldn't be such a tremendous volume of helium-4 observed.

Why?
Because the Long Valley crust is younger and has been fractured due to tectonics (Walker Lane fault zone, for example) allowing the naturally occurring helium-4 to escape into the atmosphere as it is produced (or shortly after, ie within 100's of years), instead of being stored in the stable crust and building up to prodigious levels over 100's of millions of years--like we see at Yellowstone.

That's why Jake Lowenstern said it wasn't a volcano story. The findings tell us much more about the crustal history of the stable North American craton, than they do about current activity at Yellowstone.

This quote is from the NPR blog

The only real practical applications of this discovery, however, are for geologists who use helium to do things like figure out the age of groundwater supplies.

reply to post by Olivine


It all looks and sounds as usual, like a whole lot of guessing and not that much to be sure of, that is really all I need to know.

reply to post by Olivine


I'll be working at Yellowstone next week. If my voice starts sounding like Alvin, I'll let you know

reply to post by sageturkey


Pray tell, what do you do at Yellowstone? Do you notice any visible changes that we can only see by viewing from afar?

reply to post by whatnext21


I'm a Systems Integrator, this round is working on the renovation at The Yellowstone Lake Lodge. I'll have to take a Snow Coach in - If I can get there that is, a blizzard is supposedly on it's way in.
As far as noticeable changes? Not really.
I've been there numerous times and have never even felt an earthquake. Fortunate timing I suppose...

reply to post by sageturkey


Take care Sage and hope the coming storm doesn't strand or dump piles more of the already fallen snow. We can count on you to keep an eye on this beast. My son is quite a bit north of you in Calgary, but I now if this beast goes he may as well be there. Stay calm and I hope that the beast stays quiet.

reply to post by whatnext21


Thanks for the well wishes! If I were going to be closer to Old Faithful, I'd jump around in front of the webcam holding up a sign that says "SAGETURKEY!" for ya

reply to post by TrueAmerican



For me, when I hear unusual and Yellowstone used in the same sentence it creates a need to know more.

"This is very unusual," agrees David Hilton, a geochemist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla, Calif. "It's producing a huge flux of helium."

I feel if they aren't worried we shouldn't be either. It does help that further explanations are coming in on this though - reassuring to hear others aren't concerned. It seems ancient crust has moved over the magma chamber, which is releasing this helium.

But the plate is moving over a hot spot, and a plume of molten rock from deep within the Earth has been pushing up into these old rocks. "They've had this boring, peaceful existence and now suddenly they're put on the front burner," Evans says. "They're really getting cooked." All that cooking is driving out helium that's been trapped inside the rock for a long time, he says.

www.npr.org...
Link is for both quotes.

I am still curious to know when the last measurement was and how big of a difference this one was when compared to it. I'm sure that info will come out if it's important. The crust is always moving there - perhaps it simply hit the right spot and that's all there is too it. It would just seem the increase in helium would be more gradual if this is about crust movement. Or the magma chamber is getting hotter along with movement? Or...it means nothing.

Sorry I didn't do a better job with posting the new thread. I saw a need and did it - maybe should have left it to another. Has been a record breaking blizzard/snow where I am so things have been harder in the physical world. I hope anyone near yellowstone has a 4x4, chains, some emergency gear in their vehicle, and a way to communicate just in case. The amount of snow is ridiculous, and it takes no time before your not feeling your exposed body parts.

reply to post by sageturkey


That's pretty cool, sage!

While you're there at the Lake, see if you can round up Hank Heasler. Maybe he could explain to you why the YLT seismometer appears to be attenuating higher frequencies so much from in the park seismicity near Norris... Inquiring minds (namely, mine) want to know. Is it the close proximity to the water? Not likely. The other stations near the lake don't seem to be doing that. Is it increasing melt near the resurgent domes, that are between YLT and the Norris seismicity? It's driving me nuts I tell ya. And so far, my usual contacts offer no explanation. If he asks you how you knew that, just tell him a little birdie told you so.

Oli, from what I have gathered at this point, the study itself appears to be pretty much benign, for titillating doomers. We need to make a molehill back out of this non-existent mountain. And you are doing a great job. Thanks. I for one don't see a concerned scientist anywhere.

reply to post by Dianec


Ok so, further information about this from another informed little birdie- it appears that:

1) Helium measurements at YS go as far back as the 70's.
2) There have been no significant long term changes in helium output there
3) It is an expensive process, but still has been done numerous times over the years
4) They are 10 years into a long-term study of this
5) Somewhere, some tard got the idea that this was some kind of eruption precursor, when it is not. Not at all. For example, increases in Helium have been noted at Mammoth Mountain in Long Valley, and associated with earthquake swarms, but have there been any eruptions there? NO! So people, completely disassociate this please with any preconceived notions of this being any kind of eruption precursor. Because it is not. It is simply degassing of the helium in the crust/mantle, accelerated by the YS hotspot.

And that's all I can print. Hope that helps to alleviate any concerns.

ETA: Increases in helium can be an eruption precursor, but only to the extent that any of the other eruption precursors are- in other words, an increase in it does not guarantee an eruption. But note that the same can be said of any of the other eruption precursors, when taken individually. In the case of Yellowstone, however, the study shows that it has not increased. Therefore, even if it is related to new magma intrusion (such as is suspected of the 2008 Lake swarm), it is no more of an eruption precursor than anything else. Show me harmonic tremor and extreme seismicity, and you'll make a believer out of me that YS is about to erupt.

At this point, there has never even been a long period event detected at YS, much less any kind of tremor. And melt ratio is estimated to be far too low to support an imminent eruption. Jake himself said he thought YS might be "finished." Volcanoes, and large calderas, do go extinct you know- cause there are more than few that have done just that. I made this edit to clarify that I believe that at YS particularly, the large helium output is not any kind of eruptive precursor, given the rest of the available information on the melt status, other degassing, CO2 emissions, water table changes, deformation, and even the occasional seismicity above background levels. The alert level is at green. Where it should be, all things considered.

hmmm lets see wat mag. just happends
www.quake.utah.edu...

reply to post by TrueAmerican


Thank you for that - wasn't truly worried but am happy to have the reassurance there isn't anything alarming about the amounts in the scheme of things.

I do hope the scientist you refer to is right with regard to it being done erupting. The area is beautiful (serve winters aside). I think until that hotspot calms to the level of Toba I'll always watch it. The 2.9 tonight isn't bad alone but when more occur, in spite of the history of swarms my attention turns to these pages. It's a one of a kind.

Thanks again

reply to post by sageturkey


Sage, you may not remember, but before you were born your family was staying at Jackson Lodge during the last big quake at YS. It was quite disconcerting to say the least.

I'm really kind of ashamed to say this, but with all the man-made crap going on in the world, a natural disaster of the caliber of a super-volcano going off would be a GREAT equalizer to take care of many of the problems in the world. Though the US would probably become a wasteland and therefore I'd be dead, but hey at least the survivors will have more freedom then we have currently.