Let's Deny Ignorance: The Not So Doom-y Truth About Comet ISON

SecretKnowledge

Legion2024
Would there be enough matter in ISON to change the dynamic of the sun if it was to hit. And if it did would the change in fuel being burnt change the suns colour, and how much effect would that have on earth..?

No chance
it would be like an ice-cube being thrown into a big bonfire....
Or similar to that effect

Far too generous. Try a snowflake on a bonfire!

Sorry forgot to add I am a government shill. I must be I don't believe in the ISON nonsense posted on ATS. Maybe I should have believed in Elenin then that would prove I have an open mind.......oh hang on Elenin behaved like the "shills" said NOT the "conspiracists".....hmmmmmmm

yorkshirelad

SecretKnowledge

Legion2024
Would there be enough matter in ISON to change the dynamic of the sun if it was to hit. And if it did would the change in fuel being burnt change the suns colour, and how much effect would that have on earth..?

No chance
it would be like an ice-cube being thrown into a big bonfire....
Or similar to that effect

Far too generous. Try a snowflake on a bonfire!

Sorry forgot to add I am a government shill. I must be I don't believe in the ISON nonsense posted on ATS. Maybe I should have believed in Elenin then that would prove I have an open mind.......oh hang on Elenin behaved like the "shills" said NOT the "conspiracists".....hmmmmmmm

Are you a shill, too?!

When will we start getting paid for our services?!

Biigs
its a rock!

LOL!

It's not one of Arken's threads, though

daryllyn
So, there you have it, folks. ISON is just a comet, it poses no danger to earth, its not niburu, it has nothing in tow, NASA is not lying, and it will pass much like Elenin and the others... without incident.

Please stop propagating ignorance and fear mongering.

edit on 26pmTue, 26 Nov 2013 16:35:04 -060013TuesdayTuesday1311 by daryllyn because: (no reason given)

I can't say I do not agree with your OP, because we all know there are a lot of useless fear mongering in the 21st century, especially with celestial bodies.

However, there is something I really don't appreciate with threads like this one -
You claim wishing to 'Deny ignorance' , but quite franly, in the end, you also do the opposite. You deny ignorance and you encourage it at the same time.

What do we really know of celestial bodies? What makes us think we know everything in this vast unpredictable universe?

When you claim ''Ison is just a comet, it poses no danger to earth'' or ''Nasa is not lying, and it will pass much like Elenin and the others... without incident'', I find it as frustrating as people saying it will bring chaos on planet earth. Just because a lot of people spew nonsense about comets and end of the world, and the fact that it irritates you, is not a good reason at all to make a thread about how it is ONE HUNDRED percent CERTAIN that ison is 'just a comet', and that it will pass beside us with no harm and no incident.

Wtf seriously? How can you be so sure of that? How can NASA be so sure of that? Seriously, we are SO young in the discovery of the universe and we already assume we know everything.

*SIgh*

reply to post by St0rD

When you claim ''Ison is just a comet, it poses no danger to earth'' or ''Nasa is not lying, and it will pass much like Elenin and the others... without incident''

Okay... but think about this.. there are over 4,800 known comets and other than being a pristine comet, ISON isn't anything out of the ordinary. There is zero reason to believe it is anything but a comet. At it's closest to us, it will be 40 million miles away so, there is another blow to the doom factor.

Wtf seriously? How can you be so sure of that? How can NASA be so sure of that? Seriously, we are SO young in the discovery of the universe and we already assume we know everything.

There are no guarantees, but, if we had never ever seen a comet, or had one come as close as ISON, or the last one caused something crazy to happen, or it was considerably larger than ones in the past, or if we had no way to be sure of where it was going.... then maybe there would be more legitimate cause for concern.

I heard all wrong. I was told in an YT video that earth was going out of its way to crash into comet Ison! Come on people, you really need to get your facts straight…

The only thing I’m worried about is the 5o megaton nuclear bomb that’s going to explode once it gets close to the sun! I mean really, that could blow the sun right off course into Jupiter. This in turn will ricochet off Uranus, right into Hawaii!

I think it probably best not to be in Hawaii when the SHTF!

Geeeesh

reply to post by daryllyn


Why is an astrophysicist saying that we have never seen a comet like this at a JPL news conference yesterday? I could believe what you are saying if you had some credential even close to keep saying it is just like any other comets, when the people that do this stuff for a living are not completely agreeing with what you and some of the other people on the thread seem to be attempting to sell, unless we have an astrophysicist on board all of the opinions here are based on what you have probably read or been told, or want to assume.

Also someone referred to me as doom boy, well I am far from it, I do not believe it will hit the planet, but there is a margin of unpredictability, many others seem to think it is an exact science, comets are unpredictable and that is well established, I just like to deal with some reality, the debris field which I am referring you can go to your simulation software and see it happens well after the ISON sun exit, so it has not occurred yet , where are you getting your info ? I just don't like to argue with people on a thread about these subjects especially if we have no idea where their so called expert opinions seem to be derived from.

Excuse me if we do have some real experts, I just don't buy it if all you are doing is regurgitating and copying and pasting things you have no idea about just to get a star or be the cheer leading band wagoneer for ISON amateurs who really have no clue.

reply to post by phinubian

Why is an astrophysicist saying that we have never seen a comet like this at a JPL news conference yesterday?

Did you listen to the conference? Or are you just concentrating on a couple of out of context statements? Do you know specifically what he was talking about?

I do not believe it will hit the planet, but there is a margin of unpredictability, many others seem to think it is an exact science, comets are unpredictable and that is well established

Their "performance" is unpredictable, not their orbits.

the debris field which I am referring you can go to your simulation software and see it happens well after the ISON sun exit, so it has not occurred yet

When the comet passes Earth's orbit on its outbound leg it will be high above the ecliptic, its "debris field" (usually referred to as the dust tail) will not encounter Earth. On the other hand, in January the Earth will be passsing through the region of space where the comet was at the beginning of this month. There is a slight chance that we will pass through what was left behind then...but probably not, since again, the comet was above the ecliptic at the time and its dust tail was insignificant.

ISON amateurs who really have no clue.

Like those talking about ISON being a diamond which could produce some sort of laser effect (is one end fully mirrored and the other partially, do you actually know how a crystal laser works)? Like those who claim that it had some dramatic effect on Mars?

What happens to ISON if it's hit by a CME? Does its course get changed, is it destroyed, nothing at all? To know anything for sure in this pinball machine we call the universe is a fallacy.

reply to post by The Undertaker

At the most the tail will get pushed around a bit, something like this:



A CME is less dense than the best vacuum that can be produced in labs. It will not affect the orbit of the comet.

phinubian
reply to post by daryllyn

 

Why is an astrophysicist saying that we have never seen a comet like this at a JPL news conference yesterday?

Also someone referred to me as doom boy, well I am far from it, I just like to deal with some reality, the debris field which I am referring you can go to your simulation software and see it happens well after the ISON sun exit

I just don't buy it if all you are doing is regurgitating and copying and pasting things you have no idea about just to get a star.

edit on 27-11-2013 by phinubian because: (no reason given)

They say it's 'unlike what we've seen before' because its a pristine comet. That's why its different, that is why it is special, but.... that doesn't make it anymore dangerous. Its exciting because its a 'new' comet, happening in a time that it can be highly observed. It has a lot to teach us from a scientific standpoint... that's why it's been called by some the 'comet of the century'. Look it up... the information is available for anyone and everyone that wants to take the time to read it.

Excuse me while I copy and paste an answer to your debris field problem... so I can get teh starzzz (as you put it):

"During a breakup, comet fragments don't fly off in different directions like shards in a cinematic explosion," explains a new Comet ISON video released by the operators of NASA's famous Hubble Space Telescope. "They break off but continue to travel along the path of their parent body. So any pieces would remain far from us, millions of kilometers away."

"If a breakup happens, we may be fortunate enough to witness a beautiful 'string of pearls' in the sky, similar to what Hubble observed when the comet S-W 3 broke up in 2006," the narrator adds.

Comet ISON debris link from Space.com

I never claimed to be an expert on anything. I like to learn... and one thing I wanted to learn about was comet ISON, and then all comets, and then the history of comets, and the original people that developed the very methods we use today to study and predict comets, and so on. The more I read, the more questions I find that need answering, so I read some more.

I like to "deal with some reality", too, that is why I look at facts, look to various experts in the field, read article after article, follow a subject over time, until I'm satisfied that my questions are answered. There is always more to learn.

You don't have to believe anything I say. The information is out there, and its just as easily obtained by you as it is me, you only need to be willing to take the time and effort to find it and read it.

Go research it yourself.

After watching the video it looks like the winds do have an affect on the comet. The tail is more dramatic but the comet definately glows brighter which could cause destruction or course change. Or am I missing something?

reply to post by daryllyn


I have followed some of what this guy has to say, but I like all of your replies Phage, however, he is even unsure and this is what he does for a living.
This guy's job is to study unusual orbits and he thinks there is a chance the comet could hit earth in some models

reply to post by phinubian

Perhaps you could point me to a place where he actually says that.

phinubian
reply to post by daryllyn

 

I have followed some of what this guy has to say, but I like all of your replies Phage, however, he is even unsure and this is what he does for a living.
This guy's job is to study unusual orbits and he thinks there is a chance the comet could hit earth in some models

I would love to see what he has to say, but the link only gives his information. Do you have a source for what he has to say?

reply to post by The Undertaker

Or am I missing something?

You are missing the effects of the techniques used to enhance the detail of the CME. It's called background subtraction and it affects the brightness levels of objects seen in the images. You'll notice that the stars are also "affected" by the CME.
The orbit of the comet does not change. The CME does not affect the comet itself.

jlafleur02
One problem I have is that they don't know whether or not it will break up. When calculating trajectory, you need speed and mass. If it breaks up the mass will be different so the trajectory will be different. We can't possibly know if or how it will break up, what size it will break into. Right now the mass is such that it will have an orbital arc that carries it away. Reduce the mass and the arc gets tighter bringing it closer and changing speeds. We will find out when it emerges on the other side.

A comet has an elliptical orbit,so it has a centrifugal force just like a sattelite, F = mυ²/R
so,
that means it's speed is creating a centrifugal force that
opposes the attraction of gravity of the sun
m*V²/(R+h) = G*m*M/(R+h)²

and it becomes greater than the gravity of the sun when it escapes.
m*V²/(R+h) > G*m*M/(R+h)²,

m is the mass of the comet and M is the mass of the sun, and the above equation be comes
V²>G*M/R+h
that means isons path will not be affected by any changes on it's mass.

daryllyn
From user "hadituptohere"... I found this tidbit quoted, but couldn't find the post it came from.

When this is over, daryllyn, I'll find you and we'll talk. Oh, yes, I'll find you. We Pleiadians have special skills. Maybe you know that already.

I'm sorry.. that is just creepy.

"Oh yes, I'll find you" ... wow.

You, along with the rest of the doomers, will see that ISON will pass without incident, just like Elenin did.

PS... Please don't find me.

Don't worry, D. I am a grand prince of the Orion Constellation Syndicate. The Pleiadians are a shifty bunch of hot-dog stand vendors who operate in our spacecraft centers, and generally speaking, their only 'special powers' are that of giving bad change and social diseases, in addition to the occasional bit of food poisoning.

The "ISON" thing is a usual bit of penny-ante grifting that you see Pleiadians up to. We arranged the ISON approach to provide a bit of holiday joy to a weary world, and they try to turn it into doom. We should revoke their food licenses.

ps - wait until the closest approach - we've arranged a bit of strontium, calcium, and copper so that you get a nice red and green light show to commemorate the season.

daryllyn

phinubian
This guy's job is to study unusual orbits and he thinks there is a chance the comet could hit earth in some models

I would love to see what he has to say, but the link only gives his information. Do you have a source for what he has to say?

I did a bit of searching and managed to track down the doom doom doom scenario mentioned above.
National Geographic aired a comet ISON special on the 27th, and the publicity promo for it had Gareth Williams talking about his concerns about the comet's orbit, and the real possibility that it could *come close to* (not hit) earth.

Various doomsday websites (including the usual GLP and BIN) took that quote and ran it for all its doomy worth and put the "hit earth" words into his mouth that he never said.

BUT

The recording of Gareth Williams saying this was made ***only 3 days after the comet was discovered***, before more observations were made to narrow down the orbital parameters.

And even then, its left to the sensationalist NatGeo voice over doomsay guy to make it more doomy and remove its context even further.

You can find the quote here in this clip at 2:26.


TLDR: Doomsdayers have to lie again to make a scary story.

Phage
reply to post by jlafleur02

 

When calculating trajectory, you need speed and mass.

No. In calculating orbits the mass of the object is irrelevant. It appears on "both sides" of the equation and is cancelled.

Given the same starting vector, a marble and the Moon would follow the same orbit.

edit on 11/27/2013 by Phage because: (no reason given)

Not when calculating escape velocity. The equation V = (2GM/R)where G is the gravitational constant, M is the object's mass, and R is its radius.

Note that for a given mass, as R gets smaller, V will get larger. When velocity increases the elliptical orbit changes in ratio to the major and minor axis. which is where we get our orbital path.