How governments can now predict revolutions simply by looking at twitter

The chart above shows the level of political polarization among Egyptian Twitter users from March 2012 through July 3, 2013. That first peak, in April, coincides with violent protests over military rule, the second with Egypt's constitutional crisis in November. Starting about a month ago, you can see a crescendo of polarization leading up to the Tamarod protests on June 30.

The big question looming over the study is whether the data could have foreshadowed the contentious and, at times, deadly protests that erupted across Egypt over the past week and a half. As Patrick Meier, the director of social innovation at QCRI, wrote on his blog, iRevolution, "this index appears to provide early warning signals for increasing tension." Weber, who worked on similar projects tracking online trends during the 2012 presidential campaign in the United States, said he'd like to see the model applied to other countries experiencing political upheaval. Finding the right formula for turning social media into a crystal ball is a growing field of study (in March, for instance, Businessweek reported on research underway at Sandia National Labs to cull predictive data from the Internet). And while Weber is quick to point out that QCRI's Political Polarization Index doesn't predict events, it can demonstrate when tensions are running high -- and when things are most likely to escalate.

blog.foreignpolicy.com...

Sounds like propaganda to me....

They can predict revolutions because they are BEHIND them.

"...the infiltration and take over (via revolutions) of all western governments with the USA as its "prize". Thru the centuries, the Illuminati has financed and promoted every revolution including The French and American Revolution." LINK

"Remember the French Revolution to which it was we who gave the name of 'Great.' The secrets of its preparation are well known to us for it was wholly the work of our hands." Protocols of the (Learned) Elders of Zion No. 7.

"The Illuminati was behind the revolutionary movements of the 18th -- 20th Century as well as their respective reigns of terror. The bankers used their power to spread their Satanic convictions. They had finagled a monopoly on credit (usurping the government's right to create money) and they needed to control the world in order to protect this prize."LINK

Yep, now you know why administration people go work at places like facebook

reply to post by DuneKnight


The biggest problem that I can see with trying to use something like Twitter to gauge the volatility of an area is the usage of "sock puppets" on the site. Basically, twitter accounts seem to be automated and used to make an individual (or entity's) opinion seem to be held by a multitude. The difference between a sock puppet and an actual user of Twitter would be that the sock puppets function instantaneously, with exact wording (and not as a RT), and, very key--they never sleep. So, if one is looking at instances of a specific opinion, one has to account for sock puppets that may falsely amplify the numbers holding that opinion. It's a really creepy thing to consider as it essentially attempts to create an echo chamber to perhaps encourage fence sitters to a specific viewpoint through the premise that a majority hold that opinion. An even scarier question would be, were there any sock puppets at work in Egypt?

I actually caught via screenshot a slew of them and investigated the account activity for each to that absolutely indicated that they were not, in fact, human. However, I must've rubbed the puppet master the wrong way as the image is now removed off of my blog. (Way to censor publicly available via host information, Google--don't be evil).

This is why I don't use twitter.

Add: This guy's image wasn't taken down: mikecanex.files.wordpress.com...

If only things in life were that simple.

First, I would start off by stating their are many and perhaps far more obvious means of determining the state of public opinion. I will admit twitter does offer A real time source of public opinion, but I am sure it is has some significant limitations.

What I would argue instead is that Twitter can be used to perhaps expedite the process by allowing for easier and quicker access to information and perhaps mobilize the masses to action.