The Hindenburg Omen has appeared

reply to post by tgidkp


Dear tgidkp,

there are a good number of posters here on ATS that one moment condemn the evils of sheeple and TPTB... ...and the next defend the legitimacy of "making money" in the markets.

I agree to a degree. I think one of this nations greatest problems is that stock owners do not consider themselves to truly be owners and stewards of their companies. This has allowed CEOs to go unchecked and to make decisions that are bad for the company but good for the temporary stock valuation. In the beginning options and puts were really a form of insurance for institutional investors; but, it is nothing more than gambling anymore.

Maybe after the next major crash we will decide that the system is out of control and put permanent limits on certain types of trading.

reply to post by tgidkp

there are a good number of posters here on ATS that one moment condemn the evils of sheeple and TPTB...

...and the next defend the legitimacy of "making money" in the markets.

(hint: "making money" does not equal "generating value". the first without the second is stealing, no matter how legitimate you convince yourself it is.)


this is the worst possible type of human being.

I agree that secondary markets do not generate value any more than casinos do. However, calling it stealing is a bit of a stretch. There are no unwilling participants in the markets. It is a game where those who can guess/manipulate better than the others win. Those who fail to guess better than the others and do not have the ability to manipulate end up losing.

reply to post by jude11


always assume it is a guy....(and I am, do you think spidey is a girl? )


reply to post by tgidkp


I know a few people who make money and use said profit to buy preps for the upcoming crisis...not me though, I got hosed in 2007 big time. I just kept my money in till I broken even then pulled it all out.

reply to post by AQuestion


thanks for the reply and info.

a triple witching hour on june 21st eh, sounds interesting!,, and apparently there's a "super moon" on june 23rd...

the question is, could project black jack fit in the middle there?? :p lol.

reply to post by WHOS READY


Dear WHOS READY,

I should have explained what a triple witching hour is. Wikipedia - Triple witching hour. The triple witching hour (actually quadruple witching hour), is the third Friday in March, June, September and December when many types of options that are traded expire and people have to place their bets for the next six months. On the last hour of that Friday, the institutional investors, the big boys, make their moves.

A crash could occur prior to a triple witching hour and then you would see the resulting ripple on the triple witching hour. Here is an article that came out today that I highly recommend.

Hufington Post - The World Economy's a Ticking Time Bomb (and the Fuse Is Lit) . The economist that the article is discussing is a well regarded, mainstream professor and he isn't selling gold or anything else. We are going to see a systematic failure of all asset classes and economic systems.

The economic system collapsed in 2001 and then again in 2008. In between the system was completely gamed to get out as much value as those who control it could. The inevitable was delayed while governments worked together to define what will come next. They also intentionally inflated the housing bubble to cause the delay and we all benefited from that in some way. Money was plentiful as were jobs. The western world had it's last big party. Remember everyone driving around is Escalades with televisions in the back of all the seats.

There is no question of what is coming, the question is how people will respond. Imagine what happened in Cyprus happening here, a hold on your bank account while the system recapitalizes. That is what is coming and that is what the Bank of England, the FDIC, Canada and the International Monetary Fund have all agreed on.

First, I just want to say all of these clowns calling for a collapse of the market have been calling for it from the bottom all the way up through one of the biggest rallies ever. They have zero credibility, and want to scare you. Eventually they will be right, but their voodoo bull# reasoning will have nothing to do with it. I am talking about Peter Schiff and other Doom and Gloom Analysts that pick a position, are wrong for 10 years, then when something finally happens they claim to be some kind of prophets.

As a full time trader, I make no decisions or trades based on fundamentals. If you are trading interday, "news" and fundamentals do not determine where the market goes, they just send it there faster. That being said, I still stay informed on real possible issues.. Not CNBC talking points. 99.999% of everything you hear does NOT matter. Then there is the Japanese Bond Market. That is the only domino to watch, in my opinion. Japan just started running a negative account balance recently, at a time when their majority bond holders(Japanese Seniors) are dying, and the population decline in Japan is not providing new suckers to buy into the bond market(definition of a pyramid scheme). They are desperately trying to find people to buy their debt. They are even advertising it in taxi's. How weird is that? So the Bank of Japan has been buying absurd amounts of its own bonds. The most toxic asset on earth!!!

Japan is dealing with two lost decades now essentially. The Nekkei is down 75% in that time, Real Estate has fallen by about 75%. Japan Crossed 1 QUADRILLION yen. If you tried to count to 1 quadrillion, assuming each number took about a second, it would take you about 31 million years to get there. Just to put this massive number into perspective. If the US's fiscal situation is "#ty", Japan's situation went far beyond ridiculous years ago..

From 1998 to 2005, Japan issued more debt than it has ever issued on an annual basis in its history. As they issue more and more debt, their expenditure for interest has grown to roughly 11 trillion yen! To put that in perspective, their central government tax Revenue is roughly 40 trillion yen. They spend a quarter of their tax revenue on interest alone, today, and that's when it is almost free! Their rates have been essentially zero for over a decade. They ARE in the zone of insolvency. They have really passed the zone of insolvency. Japanese Debt stock is about 24 times their central government tax revenue. They are trying to achieve a 2% inflation target now, and if they have success in that area they are finished. Every hundred basis points of cost of capital costs them 11 trillion yen. a 200 bp move would actually send their annual debt servicing above their central government tax revenue.

For the fifth year in a row, they're going to be spending about twice what they make.They project about 46 trillion revenue this year, with an expenditure with all of their stimulus being projected at 101 trillion yen this year.

Now, imagine my concern that the Japanese Government Bond market has tripped the circuit breaker like 6 times in the last month. If the Japanese Bond market goes, the US is next, then everything.

I'm fairly convinced this WILL happen, at some point. This is the catalyst for the next "crash". But markets can remain irrational far longer than you can remain solvent. So called analysts who have been predicting the end of the world through the massive rallies lately are selling you fear, if they were putting their money where their mouth was they'd have none.

reply to post by spikebase


Dear spikebase,

People like Mr Schiff and others are into selling gold or foreign currencies and therefore to me they are suspect. Having said that, people that sell stock are just as suspect. They all have a stake in leading people to make specific investments. Now, when we read documents from the International Monetary Fund, the Bank of England, the FDIC, the Bank of International Settlements and one of the most respected economists in the world who is a Professor at the London School of Economics, maybe we should listen. As for the predictions of a crash by Schiff and the others, they never predicted when that I am aware of.

Do you believe the stock market is manipulated and rigged? It is and that is easilly proven. It is also going to crash, not because Mr. Schiff or the others say so; but, because it is wildly out of whack with the fundamentals. Do you believe we have a capitalistic market or a managed one? The actions of the Federal Reserve and the other central banks should make it clear that the economy is managed, you can decide for yourself if you think it is well managed or poorly managed.

Here is my very basic question. As the world goes off the dollar standard (which it is in the process of doing) then wouldn't you expect the governments and central banks attempt to make a soft landing or just sit back and let it all happen in a day? We seek immediate gratification and expect that as soon as we figure something out that it will happen immediately; but, that is because people do not bother understanding the fundamentals. Money is nothing more than a promise and sometimes promises are not kept and then the money means nothing. We have seen hyperinflation in countries before, we have seen deflation in countries before. This time we will see some odd sort of combination of both.

People think of Black Friday in the 20s; but, the market did recover, the nation did not. What happened in 2008 was not a Black Swan and what is going to happen next is not either. It will be publicized as such because the people who should have informed us did not and maybe they should not have. Somewhere around 2005 during the housing boom I was asked to give a two day seminar in Las Vegas to real estate "professionals" and I did. I told them that the fundamentals were wrong, that we had experienced and inverted yield curve and that the market failed to be in line with the "affordability index". These are fundamentals and I was not involved in selling anything, I even gave the seminar for free because a friend asked me to.

When housing crashed and then took out the stock market, Bernanke, Paulson and Greenspan all said we would have a "soft landing" and they were all wrong. Should we listen to them? Who should we listen to when there is something going on in the market. Maybe we should listen to Cramer, a man who admitted to having manipulated the markets and is somehow now a "well respected" market analyst. He is a shill just as much as anyone else who makes money by selling stock.

Lets consider the most fundamental aspect of supply and demand and economics. You have to supply something valuable to be given other peoples money or you have steal it. What do we produce? Little. What do we sell and what does England sell? Financial management for the world. Have we sold an honest product? No, we cheat the system and LIBOR is just one example, there are plenty more and I can list them. Why should the world pay us to cheat them when they make all the products? They should not and the will not, we had the chance to straighten out our houses and we did not and therefore they are going to abandon us, it will not happen in a day, it has been being prepared for for years. Read the Bank of England and FDIC document that I linked to and you will see that the G20 has already agreed about what to do when the currencies and institutional banks fail. The crash is coming and there are plenty of Judas sheep out there to lead others to take the bigger hit.

reply to post by AQuestion


Thanks for that info.

Your right, it's definitely coming, and yes, it's going to be all about how we respond to it!!!!

The window for a Crash (delayed reaction from the high) is probably from August to October. It should start in Asia - spread to Europe and end here.

It's back!

Now we've seen the 4th Omen in last 5 weeks and 3rd in last 7 days. Not a good sign for the "market".... Or maybe it is, depending on how you look at it.

reply to post by METACOMET


care to give a bit more info?

something is defo going on with all these scandles breaking in the news,, the powers that want to remain need a distraction!!

Sure, what would you like to know?

reply to post by METACOMET


i'm aware of the one omen, made up of 2 parts, and you said about a four omens.. just wondering if i was missing out on something??? or am i having a blonde moment??

Another Omen today.

I think this is the 5th one so far this year.

This is merely a caution, not a cause, but...

....soon

Nikkei down 4% last nite

Bank of england says they will taper bond buying when un employment reaches 7.0 percent, they are at 7.8 so

Technical indicators that aren't backed by any fundamental news are complete crap. Sometime I get kind of sick listening to technical traders who have no idea what's going on in the financial and trading sectors. Trading on a technical analysis is no different than walking into a casino.

Sorry for the rant. BTW, it's been over 40 days since the prediction.

The only thing keeping markets from goin downward is QE

One cant even get a correction in this QE built stock levitation program. Not even with 9 hindenburg omens.

The last minutes released by the fed yesterday were bullish for stocks as fed is walking Away from taper talk and it should be no surprise why. Weaker economic data and a spook in the 10 yr last few months. Goldman sachs the trustworthy shysters that they are has a 245 pm press release that takes markets down yesterday b.s ing that the fed minutes show "tapering likely to start in sept" . Their own logic in that memo is poor and actually makes me think they are simply "talking their book". The fed mentions in july minutes that the unemployment rate is more than just the number and mentions part time workers and people leaving the work force that is mey fed speak, no wonder some mention lowering threshold numbers for unemployment wrt monetary policy decisions. Many more fed officiala were concerned growth was lack luster 1'st half (and my comment w target/walmart lowering future earnings/sales u know second half look weak as well!!) and third fed members felt that ination was too low (lol) this is the trifecta in fed speak for Slowly distancing themselves from a taper, esp in september. Lastly listen closely to articles that say " most memebers were broadly comfortable w bernankes taper timeline later this year IF economic data shows improvements" well the numbers have not improved and they are looking a bit worse so far. Even the unemployment report should carry less weight now since fed minutes showed them looking at more than just the "headline stats" into quality of jobs and looking to see wether ppl leaving workforce is primarily whats bringin rate down!

I think risk on will be back in markets soon and i think flows to emerging markets shoukd pick back up, esp as their currencys strengthen in a month or two when ppl realize what the fed is really saying