The Hindenburg Omen has appeared

Hello ATS,

this is the first time I've heard of this "hiddenberg omen", so i'm just putting it out there in the hope of getting more info on the subject from people more knowledgable,, so what better place to come!!

is it a big deal, how accurate is it, what other warning signs if any are there to look out for??

here's the article- www.businessinsider.com...

what do you think ATS??

Mod note: Starting a new thread? Look here first.

reply to post by WHOS READY


I seem to recall this being called for signs lining up once before...years ago. I wish I could recall the details. If it's as they say for the numbers and indicators lining up though? Even the expert economists won't claim to know all the hows and whys of the market and the way it all interacts ....but they seem to know when it's about to crash and burn well enough.

I wouldn't panic..but I wouldn't ignore it either. Just my thoughts.

I don't have all of the statistics necessary to claim this works or not. Because it is based off data correlations, we need the data to correlate.

However, let's just use basic logic for a moment.
-- What goes up must come down --

So look at the stock market. Is it up? Up really high?
If yes, than a crash is very likely.

On the other hand, if stocks were at an 'all time low', I would be telling you that stocks are about to increase in value significantly.

I'd sell all my stocks now had I any.
But that's because I like winning.

Oh crap I just checked.

It is crashing as of yesterday afternoon.

We spoke too soon, haha. (Or too late rather).

DJIA -1.3%
NASDAQ -1%

i like the implication made... just like the public and wall street thought that there was nothing but clear skies and forever prosperity and advancements in all human endeavors..

BOOM the Hindenberg exploded...

a black swan event in modern jargon...

today stocks, equities are seen as the only real refuge from depressed returns on investment.... bonds and commodities have fallen from investor favor and only NYSE Equities and the strong USD remain 'wealth preservation' investment items... (at this time)


i also kinda like that elliot wave thing & the 'waves' that can keep piling up to 'prove' their future forcasts
they are both (in my book) deceptive and fanciful stastictics & interpretations of market movement and projected movements

..................Sorry



~ double post ~





BOOM the Hindenberg exploded...

a black swan event

I know next to nothing about the stock market but put options come to mind.

Remember a few weeks ago?
The headlines?

Dow Jones highest close ever

On Wednesday, March 6, 2013 the Dow Jones closed at 14,296.24. That topped the all-time high of 14,164 of October 9, 2007.

It almost hit 15,400 yesterday.

There is no way this inflation can last long.
Sell your stuff now before you lose everything!

Question : Do stocks just grow in price indefinitely?

Answer : No, sometimes people sell their stocks in order to gain profits or to cut their losses. It is gambling essentially, and has inherent risk.


Question : Why do stock prices increase or decrease?

Answer : When people buy up a specific stock, the value increases as it's availability decreases. When people sell a stock, it's value decreases as it's availability increases.

Learning the laws of inverse proportionality are paramount to learning economics.

reply to post by muzzleflash



just the other day in the uk, "the news" was programming us with the idea that house prices were on the rise, which is a good sign of an economic recovery... and yes, my first thought was, could we expect a crash or atleast an event that would trigger the crash soon??

i guess its a sign that we need to be more vigilant!


thanks for the reply

reply to post by Josephus


good point.. does anybody know anyone watching that sort of thing that may have info that can chime in on this thread??

Trust not statistics, but trust realities you see before your eyes.

The stock market is nothing more than legalized gambling FAR WORSE than a casino because it is skewered to those with big money unlike real casinos that one have to depend on luck no matter how much he has.

To play the stock market honestly, you would have to look long term - place your money for a minimum of 5 years and in companies that exists far longer than 5 years, proving their management stability, but no means still a sure thing, as changes are the only constant in life.

If you are simply going in and out of the market rapidly, that's pure gambling, no need to BS.

How the real market performs - real stable companies in a variety of trades - is fully dependent on economic realities. For example, when people are buying their products which are of quality and are constantly improving, their values rise through their earnings, and thus your stock share.

If no one is buying those products, or cannot afford such as high employment or low wages with high inflation, and the company shows huge debts, it is time to flee the sinking ship.

As for gamblers, big money is often splashed into stocks of certain companies rising their values, to get the small guys foolish to think that it will continue to rise in value, whom will quickly pump in the money, and when it is high enough, the big boys pull the rug, often using instabilities of the world as excuses so that they do not get caught in the act of manipulating the market.

That's how the big boys earn their bonuses, pay off their promised returns to investors in their funds, and that's how banks pay off the interest promised to depositors.

Can I say - so quit being fools, stop gambling, get a job, save up money, learn a trade and become an entreprenuer instead? I don't think so as suckers are born by the minute every day. Been like that for years.

I've never heard of it before, but I've been thinking that the markets look like they are topping out around the world.
I think a correction is way overdue and the markets look like they are losing momentum.
If I was in the markets I would sell right away, regardless of this Hindenburg Omen.

The probability of a move greater than 5% to the downside after a confirmed Hindenburg Omen was 77% (within 40 days of the event taking place) Panic sellout is at 41% while a crash is at 24%. Of the previous 25 confirmed signals only two (8%) have failed to predict at least mild (2.0% to 4.9%) declines.

en.wikipedia.org...


This with the combination with the FED basically announcing WE ARE SCREWED.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

reply to post by SeekerofTruth101

The stock market is nothing more than legalized gambling FAR WORSE than a casino because it is skewered to those with big money unlike real casinos that one have to depend on luck no matter how much he has.

There are several casino games where you have an advantage the more money you have.

Can you bring some info into the OP rather than just making a statement and providing a link that we must follow in order to discover what you are talking about?

Thank you,

Peace

reply to post by jude11


Four criteria need to be met in order for the Omen to appear:


The daily number of NYSE new 52 week highs and the daily number of new 52 week lows are both greater than or equal to 2.8 percent (this is typically about 84 stocks) of the sum of NYSE issues that advance or decline that day (typically, around 3000).[2] An older version of the indicator used a threshold of 2.5 percent of total issues traded (approximately 80 of 3200 in today's market).

The NYSE index is greater in value than it was 50 trading days ago. Originally, this was expressed as a rising 10 week moving average, but the new rule is more relevant to the daily data used to look at new highs and lows.

The McClellan Oscillator is negative on the same day.

New 52 week highs cannot be more than twice the new 52 week lows (though new 52 week lows may be more than double new highs).


It has been decent in its success rate as I have mentioned in this thread......though why I am doing the OPs work....

Originally posted by MidnightTide
reply to post by jude11

 

Four criteria need to be met in order for the Omen to appear:


The daily number of NYSE new 52 week highs and the daily number of new 52 week lows are both greater than or equal to 2.8 percent (this is typically about 84 stocks) of the sum of NYSE issues that advance or decline that day (typically, around 3000).[2] An older version of the indicator used a threshold of 2.5 percent of total issues traded (approximately 80 of 3200 in today's market).

The NYSE index is greater in value than it was 50 trading days ago. Originally, this was expressed as a rising 10 week moving average, but the new rule is more relevant to the daily data used to look at new highs and lows.

The McClellan Oscillator is negative on the same day.

New 52 week highs cannot be more than twice the new 52 week lows (though new 52 week lows may be more than double new highs).


It has been decent in its success rate as I have mentioned in this thread......though why I am doing the OPs work....

Thank you.

This is what makes a thread.

As to your question of why you are doing the Op's work....Well, you're just a nice guy...girl?

Peace

reply to post by WHOS READY


Dear WHOS READY,

There are actually a series of indicators going on at this time. I write a lot about the economy on my blog; but, don't write about it on ATS. Some other things going on

Yahoo - Reuters - NYSE asks SEC to reinstate volatility curbs. They are preparing for a crash by putting in limits on options trading and slowing the trades.

CNBC - 90 Seconds with Art Cashin: Volume & Volatility. Listen as the man explains how there was some strange off hour trading going on.

Friday, June 21st is what is called the triple witching hour on Wall Street. If there is going to be a crash in 30 days as predicted by the Hindenburg Omen then I would expect it to be on that Friday. If it does crash then the best thing to do is hold onto your stock until the markets recover; but, I would get out of financial stocks.

Originally posted by SeekerofTruth101
If you are simply going in and out of the market rapidly, that's pure gambling, no need to BS.

there are a good number of posters here on ATS that one moment condemn the evils of sheeple and TPTB...

...and the next defend the legitimacy of "making money" in the markets.

(hint: "making money" does not equal "generating value". the first without the second is stealing, no matter how legitimate you convince yourself it is.)


this is the worst possible type of human being.