Taking things with a grain of salt: failed prophecies and predictions.

(Please move to appropriate forum if this isn't the place.)

I wish to make clear before proceeding that the intent of this topic is not to disabuse others of their beliefs. Nor is it to suggest or imply that people should not engage in consideration or exploration of conspiracy theories, prediction, prophecy, etc. This is, after all, an alternative topics themed website. It is an open forum wherein any discussion (within the TOS of course) is permitted and encouraged. I am a staunch proponent of freedom of speech, thought, and belief, including but not limited to religion and the myriad forms of mysticism and/or conspiracy research people variously engage in. And I engage in my own forms of such as well.

I have long felt that belief in the unknown or un-verifiable is a natural element of the human psyche. The visionary or mystical experience, both literal and merely in terms of research or theory has long been a part of the human condition, and I feel it is likely something we need on some level. Even staunch secularists and atheists (usually; I don’t want to paint with too broad a brush) crave family and love, things which they may pragmatically acknowledge are merely neurological processes in the brain, but which in practice they subjectively desire or even require for fulfillment regardless. As my signature states, skeptics and believers should not be and in my mind are not adversaries, and I am tolerant of both states of consciousness and worldviews.

I would also like to stress that it is not my intent to single anyone out or attack anyone for failed prediction threads. As I said, such topics are allowed and encouraged on ATS, and there is nothing wrong with being mistaken. The only reason these particular topics are being listed is that they are the ones readily visible to me in my posting history. I have the utmost respect for these topic creators’ beliefs and what I believe are their good intentions in presenting them to the community here, whether I agree with them or not.

That said, as an open minded but skeptical person, I have learned the benefits of taking things with a grain of salt. That is the topic of this thread. And toward that end, I have perused my posting history for but a minute handful of failed predictions and prophecies since I became a member here at ATS several years ago. While I see no harm whatsoever in indulging consideration of such predictions, that what follows are only a tiny, tiny fraction of countless thousands of failed predictions posted on ATS over the years speaks quite clearly to the wisdom in taking things with a grain of salt in my opinion. If we know that there is a long history of failed predictions, it behooves us - I feel - to avail ourselves of that freely available and readily accessible history in order to recognize that not every series of coincidences, seeming synchronicities, and apparent correlations necessarily add up to an impending event or even any greater meaning at all. To ignore this reality, in my opinion, is to reject ATS’s credo: Deny Ignorance.

Video Warns: It May Only Be A Matter of Months before the SHTF (Very Important!! Must Watch!!), This topic consisted of a warning about financial collapse and predicated on the claim that the Federal Reserve charter will expire in 2012. It turned out that there was no expiration date for the Federal Reserve charter, and that its powers will persist until and unless an act of congress revokes them.

The Final Ultimatum, This topic dealt with a warning, ostensibly from God, that if by March 2012 humanity had not begun to find a means of adequately feeding everyone on the planet, we would be “reminded” of this warning via a “natural but not natural” event of some kind. If by summer of 2012 the requirements were still not met, then “no one” in the world would have enough to eat. Nothing ever happened, unless you want to count this year’s drought. But that isn’t exactly consistent with what was implied.

ELEnin Dwarf Star Warning This is a YouTube video describing the general idea behind the ELEnin craze of 2011. It was widely speculated and predicted that comet Elenin’s name was actually code for an extinction level event (hence the capitalized ELE people used in its name in conspiracy communities,) and that it was actually a Brown Dwarf star inside the orbit of Mars, which would wreak havoc on the Earth in various ways. Elenin was a comet, and ended up breaking up as it approached the sun. There were too many topics on ATS to cover this comprehensively. It was a massive fad here for a while. Here are the three ATS topics I have readily at my disposal: www.abovetopsecret.com... and www.abovetopsecret.com... and www.abovetopsecret.com...

The D4rk Kn1ght This topic details the numerous topics relating to ATS user D4rk Kn1ght, who claimed that a relative imparted knowledge to him of an event which would take place on October 28, 2011. Massive and increasingly bizarre phenomena and sightings would build up to the prescribed date, which would entail total darkness, psychotronic warfare against the people of Earth, a false alien invasion, and all sorts of other horrific scenarios. D4rk Kn1ght claimed to have left civilization to live off the grid at high altitude somewhere, safe from this impending series of events. Needless to say, nothing happened. (I sincerely hope he’s alright.)

For those who believe in the 4D shift. 11.11.11 it begins., A November 11, 2011 dimensional shift and mass spiritual awakening was predicted.

Girl Who Predicted Japan Quake Has New Messages, YouTube user 9Nania predicted massive cataclysmic events for the fall of 2011.

Apocalpse preacher now saying October 21, A preacher who had predicted that the Rapture would occur on May 21, 2011, moves the goal posts to October 21st.

Final Warning to the Great United States. Last Sign CONFIRMED. 1-day left. Mega-earthquake predicted for the United States on April 22, 2011 based on an ostensible sign from God given via the Dow Jones Industrial Index.

Girl that predicted Japan EQ says California is next on 31 march - get out!!! The Aforementioned 9Nania predicts major earthquake for California on March 31, 2011.

Chaos Will Rain on America from now Through 2012 (Prophecy) Dangerous Times!! A supposed prophet says God has predicted an assassination attempt on President Obama before the end of 2010, and other predictions.

And from just today: 'The EVENT' is upon us. Illuminati Clock Decoded. Binary Sun/Comet Holmes related to James Holmes A major event of some kind is predicted for the morning of 9/9/2012 on the basis of a supposed Illuminati countdown clock on a website and other factors.

(Continued...)

(Concluding from above...)

Looking back upon these failed predictions and prophecies, one thing that jumps out at me is the consistency with which so many of them incorporate elaborate series of coincidences. Some of which are so elaborate, so seemingly improbable, and so apparently symbolic and suggestive of clear relationships, that it’s easy - very easy, actually - to see how one could come to the conclusion that it simply must mean something. It becomes apparent to the prediction believer that however fanciful the prediction, it would be even more improbable that such an incredible series of coincidences and correlating factors could be entirely unrelated and meaningless. Many proponents of the predictions cite the low odds of such astounding coincidences all adding up and not having any significance.

And yet, with almost total unanimity, that’s exactly what happened. This is an incredibly important lesson, in my opinion. No matter how interlocking, coincidental, related, and improbably correlated events and signs may seem, they really can simply be pure coincidence. They really can be entirely meaningless beyond the meanings we choose to imbue them with.

So, with that said, and taking all of the above into consideration, I put it to you: please, consider taking things with a grain of salt. Be open minded and investigative, but suspicious. Gird your mind against assumptions and the inclination to jump to conclusions. There is no danger in considering a thing without fully accepting it as inevitable truth. However, there may be danger in accepting a thing as inevitable truth, without considering that it may be false or erroneous.

Again, this is not to say that such theories and predictions are an inherently bad thing, or to dissuade anyone from partaking in them or to disabuse anyone of their personal beliefs. I am not trying to be the condescending skeptic who tells you that your beliefs and interests are BS. I am not that guy. Not even close. But it never hurts to keep an open mind in both directions.

Thank-you, and peace.

Again, this is not to say that such theories and predictions are an inherently bad thing

Well, they are ridiculous and waste people's time. What's good about it?
Fiction could also be kept as fiction and used as is.

reply to post by Consequence


I never said they were ridiculous and a waste of time. I've actually found quite a few of them to be quite fascinating. And there are those who derive some fulfillment and enrichment out of them, which is none of my business and not for me to judge or condemn. Their life and thoughts are their own, regardless of whether I agree with them or not.

My only point in creating this topic is to suggest that perhaps people take them with a larger grain of salt than sometimes seems to be the case here on ATS.

If your intent was to express your own opinion that they are ridiculous and a waste of time, then fair enough. I respect your opinion.

I do understand how you feel, but there is a science of prognostication that has better proven results. Remote viewing, although not perfect, nothing is a hundred percent, at least it has a much better accuracy rate, by those who know how to use it properly. I would look up Ed Dames "Killshot" on You Tube. His track record is not perfect, but he did carry the credentials and the knowledge, and has been accurate on many things, and really off base on others. However there is reason to believe what he says on this particular situation, it has been remote viewed since 1989 by the govt. and there is reason for concern. If nothing happens by 2014 we should be alright, but on May 17th of this year, we encountered a situation with the Sun that should not have happened and it changed the game completely, and what Dames had to say carried alot more weight. Our planet pulsed in response to a 1X solar flare and every neutron monitor went offf around the globe. It should not have happened, and we are much more vunerable than we thought we were from the Sun, that is why NASA's reports now indicate the enitre planet will be effected by the Sun. Is there a date? SOmetime between now and 2013(end year) that is what the remote views showed. In my experience, anything that has been remote viewed repeatedly with the same results should be taken seriously.

reply to post by bwcawaterbear


One can take something seriously, and seriously consider it, while also taking it with a grain of salt. Essentially what I'm advocating is open mindedness rather than haste to conclusion. We can consider a thing without assuming it must be true, instead waiting to see if it is true.

I advocate preparedness 365 days a year, regardless of predictions.

Originally posted by AceWombat04
reply to post by Consequence

 

I never said they were ridiculous and a waste of time.

That is correct.
I did.

reply to post by AceWombat04
I agree with you completely. Hope for the best prepare for the worst? The problem with all these predictions is that they are sidelines to a very real possible event that should be prepared for, at least that is what our government is saying. Just preparing alone would give people lots to do. And if nothing happens, you would have some water and food put up, big deal. If you have alot you can always donate it back to a food shelf. I think this whole dating thing is a way for people who predict to say, "I WAS RIGHT", but most of them are wrong and then they actually give yet another date. It also puts people 'off' , gives it a bad taste. There is always going to be a natural disaster of some sort, whether from the Sun, or the Earth. Try to be prepared. I live in an extreme environment 5 months out of the year. I prepare for the entire 5 months of winter during the 7 months of warmer weather. Knowing your environment and preparing to its' possible disaster potential is just common sense.

reply to post by Consequence


Okay. And as I said, I respect your opinion on that matter.

reply to post by bwcawaterbear


Completely agreed. Preparation for the threats posed by the environment one finds oneself in is something I advocate whether it seems like such a threat might be imminent or not. I live in a highly quake prone region, and do everything I can to stay ready for the inevitable "big one." That said, that's all I can do, short of leave, which I elect not to do because I love it here.

Wow....a whole lotta words used to show us predictions that fail....wow enlightening....I guess I'm a little miffed at this. A whole thread dedicated to "haha...you were wrong!!"

Great.

Personally....I like those threads...I like those people that try to connect dots...I like it when people try to give us a heads up because I know I have the right to believe, research, ect.

This is a haha I told you so....pointless!

reply to post by tracehd1


If you read my post you know that that is not the intent of this topic at all, whatsoever. The intent of this topic and my attitude toward belief and believers was laid out quite thoroughly in my post. I then also subsequently said that I consider such topics neither ridiculous nor a waste of time in response to another poster. So I think you may be knee-jerking a bit here, with all due respect.

Please read my post again and take that into consideration. In particular, for your convenience:

I wish to make clear before proceeding that the intent of this topic is not to disabuse others of their beliefs. Nor is it to suggest or imply that people should not engage in consideration or exploration of conspiracy theories, prediction, prophecy, etc.

...

I have long felt that belief in the unknown or un-verifiable is a natural element of the human psyche. The visionary or mystical experience, both literal and merely in terms of research or theory has long been a part of the human condition, and I feel it is likely something we need on some level.

...

I would also like to stress that it is not my intent to single anyone out or attack anyone for failed prediction threads. ... I have the utmost respect for these topic creators’ beliefs and what I believe are their good intentions in presenting them to the community here, whether I agree with them or not.

Moreover, in many of the topics detailed herein and other similar topics over my years here, I actually went out of my way to try to dissuade other members from adopting an "Aha! I told you so" attitude toward prediction posters, instead opting for a more compassionate approach.

Please reconsider your assessment of me and my posts.

Thanks.

Well, I can only speculate that despite my best efforts to be both courteous and respectful of both "sides" of the ATS spectrum, my post was neither condemnatory enough of believers for my fellow skeptics, nor enlightened enough for believers.

I apologize for wasting your time with such an overly verbose topic. I will refrain in the future.

Peace.

reply to post by AceWombat04

You didn't waste anyone's time. /hug
mihi.greygoof.com...