Head's Up Central US: Severe Weather and Tornado Threat

I am on the Texas / New Mexico state line, and I had the scare of my life tonight. In the 10 years I've lived in Texas, this was the first time I was really, truly scared. We had a nasty supercell roll through here a few hours ago, and because there is nothing around us but flat plains, we got a really good look at this storm as it formed. The cloud was a hideous grey / green color, lightning was shooting everywhere, and dark funnels were forming off of the wall cloud.

The local storm chaser that works for KCBD Lubbock was parked on our road because it was the best place to see this storm play out, so we got to have our property on TV as he was filming, waiting for the funnel to touch down. I believe the only reason we didn't get a tornado touch down is because the dew point was just a few degrees below what is necessary for tornadoes to form (must be a dew point of at least 60 degrees, and we were at 58).

It was an insane storm with golf-ball sized hail and it really scared me....But the reason I'm writing this thread is because this nasty weather is heading eastward. It is slow moving and rather mean. As it goes eastward, the dewpoint will rise, thanks to the Gulf moisture, so tornadoes are a definite threat for Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, and Illinois, starting tomorrow.

Please keep the weather on, or at least keep your eyes on the skies, because if it got ugly out here in the desert regions where it is drier, it can only add fuel to the fire when it hits areas of greater moisture.

Please be careful and don't let your guard down!!! Be safe!

www.weather.com...

Tomorrow's ingredients for the severe set-up


Tomorrow's area of risk:


Saturday's risk:

reply to post by FissionSurplus


Seems like the perfect blend of weather conditions there... Almost textbook in fact. Thanks for bringing this to the board, hopefully someone can see your warning and take precautions to protect themselves in the event of a severe weather outbreak.

Good luck down there!

As someone who lives just North of Lubbock, Texas, I can say that all we're getting is some wind. Had about 30 seconds of heavy rain before it subsided. Radars only show mild thunderstorms coming from the West though.

/shrug

Edit: I'm not saying you're lying, I'm just saying it doesn't look too bad from where I am.

reply to post by CrypticCryptid


We are 100 miles south west of Lubbock, and yeah, it was ugly. Lubbock isn't getting much except some rain and a little thunder. If you would have watched the storms roll in about 7:30 - 8:00 pm this evening west of Plains, Texas, you would have seen some ugly supercells.

However, the point of my thread is that areas east of Lubbock into Central and north Texas tomorrow may see some ugly weather, and I wanted to warn people that, if it got ugly out here where it's dry, it most certainly will get ugly somewhere farther east where the dew point is much higher.

reply to post by FissionSurplus


I was just thinking about the dryness myself. Just yesterday saw a thread about such severe droughts in my area that the crops may yield little to nothing.

But this is the second storm we've had this week.

Not sure how to feel about it, really.

In Iowa ... thanks for the heads up.

Bumping for others to see.

You didn't get any pictures of the storm forming?

Wonder if we will see it this week or next week.

Might dissipate before it even gets here.

Says we have sun all week, and we are in frost alert. Hmm. Looks like a big storm though.

reply to post by underduck


Thanks, you're welcome. Forewarned is forearmed!

reply to post by FissionSurplus

But the reason I'm writing this thread is because this nasty weather is heading eastward. It is slow moving and rather mean. As it goes eastward, the dewpoint will rise, thanks to the Gulf moisture, so tornadoes are a definite threat for Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, and Illinois, starting tomorrow

Im a few miles North of Dallas. At the moment, it looks like this area will be spared tomorrow, but the weather is saying there's a good chance of storms during this weekend.........but it is Texas weather, so anything could pop up tomorrow to

Check out the tunnel action over the course of the next couple days, is it any wonder?

Jet Stream

reply to post by buni11687


Lol you know the saying. Just wait ten minutes.

reply to post by Manhater


I thought about getting my camera, but I gotta tell you, I was riveted to the ground watching this thing form, and when the lighting started getting too close, I bailed. When you see such freaky colored clouds and lightning bolts everywhere, you just stand and stare at it. Next time, I will definitely try and remember the camera!

I need to see if I can get the video segment from when the storm chaser filmed the storm over our house. He definitely has video!

reply to post by FissionSurplus


Cool, tell him to like upload it to youtube. So we can all watch.
Thanks.

reply to post by buni11687


Oh yeah! I used to live in Forney, the place that got smacked hard last week from that F-3 twister. These are a series of storms and one is coming after this one, it is much colder and stronger than this current one, so it's going to be an interesting month of April.

Supposedly, Friday is the day that DFW needs to worry about, so check your local weather for updates.

reply to post by BooKrackers


Oooh...thanks for sharing that graphic. If you like storms, it's a good graphic. If you don't, it's a bad graphic!

reply to post by FissionSurplus

Oh yeah! I used to live in Forney, the place that got smacked hard last week from that F-3 twister. These are a series of storms and one is coming after this one, it is much colder and stronger than this current one, so it's going to be an interesting month of April.

I was glued to the TV on that day last week. My area didnt see much, but I doubt I'll forget that day anytime soon.

There's another coming after the one you just went through? Dang.......Well, it is Texas. As CrypticCryptid
said...just wait 10 minutes and the weather will completely change. Seriously...I wouldnt be suprised if it just started snowing tomorrow

reply to post by buni11687


That's true. Texas weather is schizo!

reply to post by FissionSurplus


Thanks for the heads up. I'm in east Iowa. I'll be keeping an eye on the sky the next few days.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

I've been all over this since Monday. Saturday is the biggest threat day; SPC already has a moderate risk for the central plains.

WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON...WITH STRONGER FALLS FORECAST FOR SAT EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE SRN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE ADVECTION E OF THE DRY LINE ON SAT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF OK AND REACHING CENTRAL/ERN KS BY SAT EVENING. THIS MOISTURE RETURN COUPLED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING /ESPECIALLY NEAR THE DRY LINE/ WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 2000-2500 J PER KG/ ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THE SURROUNDING SLIGHT RISK. STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS...VEERING WITH HEIGHT...WILL RESULT IN STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /EXCEEDING 50 KT/ AND ORIENTED ACROSS THE DRY LINE. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE WILL SUPPORT TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH FAST STORM MOTIONS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACKED...STRONG TORNADOES OCCURRING FROM THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING /INCLUDING AFTER DARK/.

I wouldn't be surprised if they go with a high risk eventually. Any point up and down the dryline from northeast NE/IA down to Texas has the threat of tornadic monster storms.

www.spc.noaa.gov...

reply to post by FissionSurplus


Lol That cartoon is great! Im in SFbay area, California, its that way here, too.