What if Iran strikes first?

Just wondering what if Iran says "Screw it, we're dammed if we do and dammed if we don't"
And decide to strike first?
What options do they have?
The ones I can think of is shutting down the stairs of Hormuz by sinking a few tankers and mining it again.
And letting a lot of suicide bombers lose around the world.
What other options could they use?

Just a note I'd rather everyone came to their senses but human history doesn't bear that idea out.

reply to post by mash3d

It seems that, strategically speaking, a preemptive attack might be the best way for iran if they want any hope of winning. If they rally the Palestinians and manage to get into a land war with Israel they might just overtake it. If they wait then their army will be destroyed by NATO bombing and their economy will be destroyed by sanctions. They should also try to get russia on their side as tensions between russia and america have been heightening recently.

Originally posted by mash3d
Just wondering what if Iran says "Screw it, we're dammed if we do and dammed if we don't"
And decide to strike first?
What options do they have?
The ones I can think of is shutting down the stairs of Hormuz by sinking a few tankers and mining it again.
And letting a lot of suicide bombers lose around the world.
What other options could they use?

Just a note I'd rather everyone came to their senses but human history doesn't bear that idea out.

What if they gave America a taste of its own medicine and pulled off a False Flag attack? If I was Persia I would make it look like America attacked first. That would be poetic.

i dont think iran will attack first unless the US or israel do some DUMB sh1t...

iran already knows thats the deal with the US and israel starting wars for no reason....

then are just waiting for one mistake that this country or israel makes and it wont be good at all thats why we havent done anything at all only jsut try and scare them away with ships

I doubt Iran would do that even though they have the support of China.
If they really wanted a war it would've been already started but they don't want such a trouble against the USA. (and the NATO) They didn't seem too aggressive when several of their nuclear scientists were killed.

Maybe they are still trying to avoid a war. It doesn't look like the US wants that, though.

Originally posted by theubermensch
What if they gave America a taste of its own medicine and pulled off a False Flag attack? If I was Persia I would make it look like America attacked first. That would be poetic.

edit on 3-2-2012 by theubermensch because: (no reason given)

I forgot about that option. If they pull it off right then it would give them a very legitimate reason to shut down the straight of Hormuz and attack Israel. Now that I think about it I'm surprised that it hasn't happened already. It would rally the rest of the middle east against america and cause a large increase in terrorist attacks on america.

Iran had better have a whole lot of help to try it. I would not put it past them but I think they want at least their Arab brothers on their side.
Attacking first wont help their cause at all. The bottom line is that this is all lip service until someone throws the first punch.

They are just waiting for Israel to attack and when they do the Arabs are going to go on the offensive. Israel will be forced to defend its borders once again and they will unleash all hell to stop them in their tracks.

reply to post by mash3d


Suicide bombers are the biggest false-flag ever. Why? There is no need for an 'investigation', because the perpetrator is blown to pieces anyway. Easiest PR stunt ever. Just think about it from a instigator's point of view.

There is one problem. If they attack first they may lose political support from Russia and China.
Really hard to say. One way around that may be to simply let lose sucide bombers since they have built in pluasabile deniablity.
They can just say they were acting on their own.

The only thing to worry about would be that DEVIL country in the M.E. that starts with an "I" and ends in an "L".

That country would LOVE to attack the U.S. and blame it on the country that starts with an "I" and ends with an "N".

Bastards.

Originally posted by Patriotsrevenge
They are just waiting for Israel to attack and when they do the Arabs are going to go on the offensive. Israel will be forced to defend its borders once again and they will unleash all hell to stop them in their tracks.

Keep in mind the whole Sunni vs Shiite thing. Saudia Arabia has no reason to jump in and help Iran.
As far as they are concerned they are better off with a weaker Iran. Iraq could fall back into a full scale civil war.
Syria and Egypt already have their hands full trying to keep from falling apart. Turkey? Who knows.
Pakistan could be a wild card since the hardline Muslim faction could take over.
That would be a mess.

I can see Iran suffering an attack and not responding to it in the barbaric, predictable way as displayed but the west; even if the knew who did it I believe Iran will turn the other cheek. Let the world see that the bully just struck down the nice quite kid in the school yard. the nice kid knows that the bully's ways will have the best of him eventually.

Originally posted by HangTheTraitors
The only thing to worry about would be that DEVIL country in the M.E. that starts with an "I" and ends in an "L".

That country would LOVE to attack the U.S. and blame it on the country that starts with an "I" and ends with an "N".

Bastards.

You mean how they did 911 and made it look like their enemies did it then made your kids, brothers and sisters go to fight a war the involved blowing up women and children in their home with Drowning POOLS hit song playing loud in their humvees.


"911 was good for Israel" Benjamin NutandYahoo

Iran has not started a war in over a hundred years they have no intention of attacking anyone. Its all hype because we want to install a central bank...

Well I think a war is gonna happen very soon, just look at what is happening as of late, more employers are hiring now. They are building us up for disappointment.

Originally posted by neobludragon
Well I think a war is gonna happen very soon, just look at what is happening as of late, more employers are hiring now. They are building us up for disappointment.

Too late. It's really already started.
Too much hate and not enough common sense on everybody's part.

Tehran wishes to protect its nuclear developmental capability and infrastructure, its infrastructure is most vulnerable (short term) to the large strike options deployable from Israeli airbases and US carrier strike groups in the region.

Its capability for development is, I would argue, most vulnerable to regime change rather than covert actions over the long term, as in the latter case it can gradually alter and adapt internal security basing and arrangements against relatively infrequent opposition.

Its capability to protect infrastructure is most vulnerable to an advanced adversary with initiative, putting it on the back foot straight away, wearing away its limited tech air and limited quantity ground assets in a defensive posture until no more remains.

*

To its advantage,

It has a lot of IRBMs, Israel has known locations for basing fighters and tankers, and though it has the amazing Arrow 2 ABM they are still acquiring PAC 3 and THAAD i.e. it considers its missile defense currently incomplete versus worst case.

Abe Lincoln groups composition will be known from the straits passage recently, the T-45 Daring has not yet reached the Persian Gulf and unable to lend its terminal active missiles to the group, AEGIS is not impregnable to massed missile attack, there comes a point when not enough bandits can be illuminated.

*

1) War Games of Surface to Surface Missile roll out to south Iran (ongoing in Real Life at the moment?) and deployment of Fast Attack Boats fanning out from the straits westward, deployment of fishing vessels and other covert surveillance boats from ports in south to spread across the Gulf, erect mobile relayed communications for the "war games".

2) Wait to find the location of the Abe Lincoln

3) Mass FABs for attack once location confirmed

4) Abe Lincoln Group attacks FABs (what choice does it have not to attack 40+ FABs that pose a credible and imminent threat), FABs may get lucky and strike just one AEGIS platform that makes SSM attack much more credible.

5) Release to press that Iran is under attack

6) Target every SSM to Abe Lincoln Group / FAB group, we are talking hundreds of ballistic and sea skimming missiles here, send in the mini subs if the groups speed is reduced or a free for all for remaining navy if the group breaks into parts.

7) 1st salvo; Launch every solid IRBM at Israel airfields, if enough tankers and fighters are damaged the retaliation package will be smaller and less capable.

8) Jericho and Tomahawk (fast response) from subsurface Gulf and the groups in the Arabian sea decimate military and nuclear fixed surface infrastructure

9) 2nd salvo; Retaliate against Israeli reactor with all remaining mobile (dispersed) liquid IRBMs

10) Claim nuclear ability breakthrough, ask for Russian troops to enter north of country to prevent global nuclear escalation / invasion, plead for mutual defense pact, sell soul to Putin etc.


Well thats a set of hypothetical first strike options, based on that the Abe Lincoln group has sailed within range of nearly all their surface to surface missiles it means they have a chance to sink it, and perhaps make it look like we started it by forcing our hand. The Israelis have around 150 modern aircraft to conduct a long range strike against hardened targets but aircraft are vulnerable on the ground and a pre-emptive strike could damage that option. Obviously these are based in hardened hangars but the scale of the assault would be very very vast, something I didnt convey very well in the 10 point plan.

"Good luck" are the only words that come to mind

Originally posted by purplemer
Iran has not started a war in over a hundred years they have no intention of attacking anyone. Its all hype because we want to install a central bank...

This.

Iran isn't stupid enough to fall for what Israel and the US are plotting. They are provoking Iran like pushing a dog into a corner hoping they will eventually snap back. As long as Iran plays the game without giving the zionist's an excuse... then Iran will be seen as the defender of it's nation in the event a war breaks out. The longer Iran can hold off provocateurs from getting them to retaliate, the more the zionist's credibility and/or general image from worldwide opinion will continue to fall.


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The other thing, why are people so outspoken to believe Iran will unleash suicide bombers? You can't be serious for those that have posted that. Why so eager to jump on the MSM bandwagon of "every muslim is a jihad terrorist"? It sickens me how people use assumption to say that people defending their nation will blow themselves up as if they are nothing more than wild dogs. Iran is a human country just like any other.

Iran may be an islamic state, but islam has nothing to do with suicide bombing. People seem to forget this and just speak what they hear from the MSM or the government. IF anything, it is a very small minority of extremists. You could argue that all christians burn homosexuals at the stake because of a select minority seem to incite murder towards them.

Don't judge a whole nation and it's people for defending their country against an attacker and the usual provocateurs (which are the true terrorist's). By believing/falling into the trap that be "all muslims are terrorist's" coming from the likes of western governments, you are being played.