Winter 2012- Most Extreme Configuration of the Jet Stream Ever Recorded

Remarkably Dry and Warm Winter Due to “Most Extreme Configuration of the Jet Stream Ever Recorded”

December 2011 has brought a jet stream pattern the most extreme on record.

Well, by now I imagine most of us are keenly aware of the unusual weather. We could
go on for days about that. Its one thing to say "hey what about this extreme weather".
Finally to see that this is record breaking weather due to drastic changes in the Jet Stream,
and the Artic Oscillation, and not merely a hundred year record.

Of course, its right on time for this Weather Phenomena, after all its now offically 2012!



And last year brought us some catastrophic weather, record breaking natural disasters.
This leaves me wondering what is coming our way now?

Aside from the obvious extreme drought conditions that are to befall many regions of the United
States, California is experiencing the dryest Winter on record - EVER. California being
the bread basket of the world...this is going to be a game changer for sure, not just those
in The United States, but world wide.

Ok, enough of speculation...onto the facts.

The jet stream controls winter weather, but strange forces are controlling the jet stream this season Scentific American

The chief suspect behind the mysterious weather is an atmospheric pressure pattern called the Arctic Oscillation, which circles the high Northern Hemisphere. Its lower edge is known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Together, the related features influence the path and strength of the jet stream.Scentific American

...the most extreme configuration of the jet stream ever recorded, as measured by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The Arctic Oscillation (AO), and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (which can be thought of as the North Atlantic’s portion of the larger-scale AO), are climate patterns in the Northern Hemisphere defined by fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure in the North Atlantic between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. The AO and NAO have significant impacts on winter weather in North America and Europe–the AO and NAO affect the path, intensity, and shape of the jet stream, influencing where storms track and how strong these storms become.

During December 2011, the NAO index was +2.52, which was the most extreme difference in pressure between Iceland and the Azores ever observed in December (records of the NAO go back to 1865.) The AO during December 2011 had its second most extreme December value on record, behind the equally unusual December of 2006. These positive AO/NAO conditions caused the Icelandic Low to draw a strong south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward over the U.S. and Europe. Think Progress

The December Arctic Oscillation (AO) index has fluctuated wildly over the past six years, with the two most extreme positive and two most extreme negative values on record. Image credit: NOAA/Climate Prediction Center.
en.wikipedia.org...

www.wunderground.com...

This extreme weather comes on the heels of record snowfalls in 2010.

Conversely, December 2010 set record snowfalls in many parts of the U.S. Sure enough, the NAO at that time had some of the lowest pressures ever observed, allowing the jet stream to move south and stay there. Arctic air descended, picked up moisture or interacted with warm fronts, and dropped snow. "The December Arctic Oscillation index has fluctuated wildly over the past six years," Masters notes, "with the two most extreme positive and two most extreme negative values on record."

Two of the most extreme positive and extreme negative values on record....

reply to post by burntheships


Stupid jet stream.

Winter ruined!!! Looks like no snow for me.

Wow, that sure is some wild variation over the past few years. What does this mean? Is the jet stream migrating on a permanent basis?

reply to post by DAZ21


For sure, no snow here. All the ski resorts are like Ghost Towns!

I am no weather expert for sure, I am hoping that some of the resident ATS "experts"
will come along soon and offer some more insights. I'll post more as I learn too.

I was not expecting anything in 2012 to be honest, I am a bit suprised. I am not going
to use the word shocked yet, but thats how it feels to have 70 degree afternoons
in the middle of winter and not a drop of rain anywhere near for months. Oh, yeah
I heard its going to rain...


Ok Charts:
Chart Courtesy of NOAA www.wunderground.com...

Global departure of precipitation over land areas from average for 1900 - 2010.
The year 2010 set a new record for wettest year over land areas in Earth's recorded history.

reply to post by burntheships


Yea, will be interesting to know why this is happening. Or if it is simply a freak of nature.

Are you in the US?

Here in the UK, its been like spring most of winter, and hardly any rain to speak of also. Never experienced a winter like it.

Then again, the past three winters preceding this one, were extremely cold. Maybe this mild winter was due??

the patterns are changing again. looks like alot of us are going to be experiencing winter after all. of course, it's mid January, and there is only another month and a half til things start warming up again. sorry to hear about the ski resorts in your area. im sure the businesses around you could use the revenue.

reply to post by DAZ21


Yes, here in the U.S. Whats interesting is I can not recall ever a winter so dry. Dry as a bone!
So you have no rain there either...hmmm. I hope someone can come along and add
some more science to this, as its one thing for them to say no rainfall here due to this
pattern over the U.S., however what is causing it where you live?

The jet stream has been locked in that position by the NAO for most of the winter...
sustained the largest pressure gradient since tracking began in 1865.

Some scientists are speculating that its due to the Solar Cycles,
sunspot activity, which was very low in December 2010 and very high during December 2011.
Though I have not found information explaining how the could directly alter the Arctic Oscillation.
www.scientificamerican.com...

A small map showing the unheard of weather pattern here, its only shows the U.S. what
about the U.K.???


Off to find out more about that.

reply to post by burntheships


First the jet stream...what's next? The Beast of the Sea? The most powerful underwater current in the ocean drives many of our climates...if that goes haywire too, we're going to experience a lot of chaotic weather.

The weather is swinging from one extreme to the other. And these swings are increasing in scope and frequency. True or false?

Context:

Originally posted by this_is_who_we_are
To reiterate:

Last year (2010) was the deadliest in a generation.

It's Official: 2010 Deadliest Year In A Generation: Meteorologists
www.abovetopsecret.com...

Now 2011 tops it.

WASHINGTON -- America smashed the record for billion-dollar weather disasters this year with a deadly dozen -- and counting. With an almost biblical onslaught of twisters, floods, snow, drought and wildfire, the U.S. in 2011 has seen more weather catastrophes that caused at least $1 billion in damage than it did in all of the 1980s, even after the dollar figures from back then are adjusted for inflation.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration added two disasters to the list Wednesday, bringing the total to 12. The two are the Texas, New Mexico and Arizona wildfires and the mid-June tornadoes and severe weather.
NOAA uses $1 billion as a benchmark for the worst weather disasters.
www.nola.com...

www.abovetopsecret.com...

reply to post by lordpiney


Thing is, the Solstice was December 21, so the coldest part of winter is about to pass, being
mid January. Its now the 17th. So the days are now getting longer, and then will be getting
warmer, not colder as a rule.

So, Winter might blast in a storm, but that does not change what is going on with the
extreme change in the Jet Stream.

reply to post by burntheships


No, can't find any up to date graphs unfortunately. Don't really know where to look on this subject. Pressure charts is the best I can do.

Maybe the jet stream is bent over the UK somehow? Not sure. But it was 13 degrees C. Here not sure about Fahrenheit?? But that's warm.

We'll have to wait for the subject expert's to enlighten us further I suppose.

Originally posted by Starchild23
reply to post by burntheships

 

The most powerful underwater current in the ocean drives many of our climates...if that goes haywire too, we're going to experience a lot of chaotic weather.

Yes, nail on the head and funny no one is talking about that huh?

And this is bring back a memory of a story about the North Atlantic Current and the
changes that all but dissapeared in 2010!

The North Atlantic Current being part of the MOC.


A sudden shut down of this current would have a ripple effect throughout the ocean-atmosphere system, forcing worldwide changes in ocean currents, and in the path of the atmospheric jet stream.

Current theories on the cause of abrupt climatic change focus on sudden shut downs and start-ups of the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) (also referred to as the thermohaline circulation), which is a global network of density-driven ocean currents. The Meridional Overturning Circulation transports a tremendous amount of heat northward, keeping the North Atlantic and much of Europe up to 9°F (5°C) warmer, particularly in the winter. A sudden shut down of this current would have a ripple effect throughout the ocean-atmosphere system, forcing worldwide changes in ocean currents, and in the path of the atmospheric jet stream. Studies of North Atlantic Ocean sediments have revealed that the Meridional Overturning Circulation has shut down many times in the past, and that many of these shut downs coincide with the abrupt climate change events noted in the Greenland ice cores.

Originally posted by this_is_who_we_are
The weather is swinging from one extreme to the other. And these swings are increasing in scope and frequency. True or false?

At this point, its pretty much conclusive. Yes its true.
Hard to think I have lived to see this day!

Thanks for the videos. Well we will see what 2012 brings.

reply to post by burntheships


I just saw on The Weather Channel that Seattle Washington just got a year's worth of snow in one day. Swings, extremes and the like. Add it to the so-called "laundry list" (as some debunkers call it): animal die offs, climate going haywire, increase in quakes and other natural disasters etc.

Yup, 2012 may be something. There is a trend with the arrow going up... in spite of the denial by some. Of course that's my opinion. I'll have to find some "peer reviewed" journal articles from acceptable sources to offer as evidence for the debunkers. Or I could just turn on the weather channel and scan the headlines myself.

Originally posted by this_is_who_we_are

I just saw on The Weather Channel that Seattle Washington just got a year's worth of snow in one day. Swings, extremes and the like.

Hope no one is trapped in a car, that can be deadly!

Just an FYI, I find it interesting that this news story has also been picked up by National Geographic....
www.greatenergychallengeblog.com...

reply to post by this_is_who_we_are


I think Seattle snowfall for a year is about 3 inches...

not sure though..

I live in eastern WA. and it has snowed for 2 days here..

we got about 10 inches all together..

Seattle close their schools when it snows an inch..

This could be a great challenge...one can only wonder what will happen to all of the swimming pools
in Southern CA.

A study of history shows that some civilizations can withstand severe droughts and survive while others collapse. But droughts weren’t the entire cause of such collapses. Rather, they tipped the societies into collapse after the failure of elites to govern properly and to provide a robust infrastructure. The Anasazi were probably wiped out by a severe decades-long drought.ivn.us...

Wasn't it supposed to be an El Nina year?

reply to post by mnmcandiez


Like everything else these days....its "uncertain"....

The more infamous El Nino is an abnormal warming of waters in the Pacific and the one in 2009/10 caused the failure of India's vital monsoon.

Because that country is the world No. 2 producer of sugar, the weak monsoon sparked a rally in sweetener prices to their highest level in almost 30 years.

The El Nino was followed by the strongest La Nina in a decade from 2010 to 2011, which was widely blamed for the worst drought in a century in Texas and across the U.S. Southwest. La Nina is an abnormal cooling of Pacific waters and has the opposite effect of an El Nino. www.reuters.com...

All that "extreme weather" talk is completely bunk, sorry.

It was 2007 when i returned from the States back to Germany and i was SHOCKED that in January i see green fields and no snow...something i have never seen in my life in EUROPE - in particular coming back from Chicago where there is always FEET of snow in Winter.

That winter 2007 was so extreme that towns in Austria/Switzerland etc. didn't get snow and almost got bankrupt because they depend on snow in winter which is where they make all their money from tourism.

THE NEXT YEARS we had TONS of snow...as opposed to the extreme warm, snow-less weather in the year before...and now we are in Spain and LAST year was TOTAL SNOW CHAOS back in Germany where cities ran out of salt and equipment due to Snow, all stores sold out of shovels etc.....and she said you could go into the city with your skiers because snow was so high.

What i am saying: There is ALWAYS some "extremes" going on...and concluding from an especially warm winter to whatever "mysterious" weather is idiotic since it can be the opposite in the next year.

reply to post by flexy123


Hey mate, whats that going on in your signature?
Talk of needing to survive and all that...

There’re some serious events about to hit the US.

Some you know of already, but some will be brand-new in a threatening way…

Oh I am sure you dont believe that either