posted on Sep, 30 2004 @ 12:36 PM
You ought to realize that I am somewhat biased, given that, even though I will not divulge my employer, it rhymes with "going".
First off, the speed thing, as far as all the aircraft builders and airlines are concerned, is a loser. The Concorde, although it was a technological
whizzbang, was a dead end that didn't make any money and was more of a "see how cool I am, I flew the Concorde!" thing. There simply aren't that
many people who would pay a three-thousand dollar premium to save four or five hours of travel time.
Recall that we were funded by the government to look into an SST and actually built one; then we realized that it was a money loser, and the only
thing left of the whole deal is the name of the home town's basketball team.
When we designed the Sonic Cruiser in early 2001, we really thought it was a possibility, but with the terror attacks pretty much wiping out the
travel and airline industry, there were simply no buyers.
But the 7E and the 380 are driven, not by technology, but by two different and competing ideas of how we (Boeing and Airbus Industrie) think the
travel market will go in the next ten years.
Airbus is a big believer in the innate goodness of the hub-and-spoke concept of airline travel. If I want to go to Kyoto, I have to take a
737 from Phoenix Sky Harbor to LAX, a 747 or MD-11 to Tokyo Narita, and then another 737 or 717 to Kyoto Kansai. This is goodness indeed for the 380,
which is simply to big to fly out of Sky Harbor, Salt Lake, or Kansai.
Not that the airports' infrastructures couldn't physically handle them; they all could be remodeled to do so, as LAX is now. But there
simply aren't that many people who want to travel from Salt Lake to Narita or Phoenix to Kansai each day, and the 380 needs a lot of
passengers to earn money on such a run.
On the other hand, the 7E, since it operates much cheaper, can make good money flying 200 people on those particular routes, and, given the fact that
most people don't want to make a bunch of stops and running back and forth between gates, the 7E, in the opinion of Boeing, fulfils the
point-to-point scenario and is the way to go.
I personally dislike hubs, since everytime I go to Japan, I end up in LAX for a couple of hours, and whenever I go to Central America, I have to
transition through Houston. Why, next month, my wife and I will be flying from Belize City to Mexico City -- via &^%$#$()Houston!! How bogus
is that!!??
The 380 has made tremendous inroads in the Middle East countries and some Asian countries, since the "local" airport (like Chek Lap Kok or Bahrain)
is a hub. But Airbus needs to sell at least 300 of those A380s to break even, and I personally (although I am, of course, biased) don't think they
will.