Advanced Warning of Double Major Storms For UK Next Week - In Depth Analysis (Be Prepared)

Originally posted by eonpeon
I was due to fly back to the UK this week. Am I doing the right thing in postponing my trip based on this information?

No. You need to judge this nearer the time as the whole situation is subject to change. If the Airlines feel it isn't safe, they wont fly you, you'll be delayed. It is too far out to change travel plans at the moment. I advise you to contact your airline/travel operator in the event of weather concerns and follow advice from the UK Met Office!

I followed your thread before regarding what is now known as 'Hurricane Bawbag' (Still makes me lol that name)
I posted about you giving us the info hours before BBCweather updated itself. As most people, especially the most vunerable, get their info diretly from TV weather forecasts, I thought the initial complete lack of info was pitiful.

I have elderly relatives, and it's good to be able to give my loved ones the heads up.
I really respect and value your updates.
You will always get tons of people saying ''seen it, felt it, got the t-shirt, not a big deal'' etc.
I'm will never be one of them. Having seen people play down storms before, only to watch people lose their lives due to falling debris, and tree limbs, it's never a bad idea to keep your wits about you.
Forewarned, is forearmed as they say.
Thanks a lot Jamie, and keep doing what you do, (please)

Update - Tuesday 13th December Storm

Morning All,

Its been quite an eventful weekend in terms of model watching. We have seen the storms for this week intensify and down-grade. Currently as i type, we are on track for quite a potent storm on Tuesday with a slight down-grade on Friday. (Which i am pleased to say...), however that's not to say the storm for Friday wont be as potent as Tuesdays storm. As I'm sure you'll all appreciate, we will have to monitor Friday as its still 96hours out.

Tuesdays storm looks like it will begin to be felt in the early hours of Tuesday 13th for the farthest west of the UK and Ireland, below are some forecasting images that I've selected that are easier to understand. I'll provide a brief synopsis as they are posted with underneath. (Please bear in mind that all of this info is subject to change, this is only information relevant for the here and now).


Here we have surface pressure for Tuesdays storm. As you can see we have a central pressure of around 950mb's at present. The center will make landfall at present around the Isle of Skye. You can see quite a steep gradient (closely packed isobars) over Northern Ireland at this point, which will transfer the worst winds through Southern Scotland, Northern England, SW England, Wales and probably the SE of England. This is what current models are suggesting.


Here we have convective gusts valid for Tuesday's storm. As you can see, there is a large swathe through the SE/E of the UK where winds are between 60-90 knots. That's 70-100mph. That's potentially Beaufort Scale Force 10-12 in some areas. Please see Beaufort Scale for reference.


The above image is showing you precipitation volumes for Tuesday for a 3 hour period. As you can see, we are looking at quite a bit of rain on already saturated ground. This leads to the added problem that we've already had 1 storm, now we will have a second with lots of rain and wind and potentially a 3rd, so with every passing storm, the likelihood of fallen trees grows. Something we'll need to watch come Wednesday. Flood warnings may be put in place.


here we have the GFS model for Tuesday. This storm seems to have slightly intensified over the past few hours according to GFS. I would expect damage and a situation very similar to "Hurricane Bawbag" from this storm.


Here we have the ECMWF model of the storm. As you can see there is slight variation. The track of the storm is slightly different but the central pressure remains pretty similar. The winds associated remain as a similar location to the above mentioned. As a result. The Met Office have issued a Weather Alert for many areas of the UK.


Please monitor the Met Office site for further Alerts or Flashes. This is still subject to change and to be refined.

As an extra measure, there is a severe thunderstorm watch issued for the UK and Ireland also. This sever thunderstorm watch also brings with it the risk of tornadoes. I have quoted the extract for you below. I will be checking Torro's website later to see if they have issued their alert.

Continued Tuesday Storm Update

SKYWARN UK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #068
ISSUED: 0000UTC MONDAY 12TH DECEMBER 2011 (GJ/SM/RB)
SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS:

ALL AREAS UK

IN EFFECT FROM 1800UTC MONDAY 12TH UNTIL 1200UTC THURSDAY 15TH DECEMBER 2011 STRONG JET ADVANCE INSPIRING DEEP LOW CENTRES TO THE NORTH, AN ACTIVE COLD FRONT AND UNSTABLE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AFFECTING THE INDICATED REGIONS IN THE TIME PERIOD SPECIFIED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WATCH INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO:
HEAVY RAIN...STRONG GUSTS...FUNNELS/WEAK TORNADOES...HAIL...LOCALISED FLOODING

DISCUSSION:

THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONFIDENCE IN THE GENERATION OF A NUMBER OF SEVERE WEATHER THREATS IN THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK. A STRONG JETSTREAM ADVANCES EAST DEVELOPING A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW TO THE WEST, CROSSING SCOTLAND INTO TUESDAY WITH FURTHER CENTRES THROUGH WEDNESDAY INSPIRED BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FOLLOWING ON FROM THE INITIAL LOW. THE COLD FRONT TRANSITS LATE MONDAY OVERNIGHT, WITH A PRONOUNCED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY OVERLAP. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT, NORTH OF BIRMINGHAM, SURGES EAST UNDER THE DIVERGENT LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET GENERATING LINE CONVECTION WHICH FRAGMENTS OVER NORTHERN ENGLAND. STRONG FOCUSSING OF WINDS WITH PRONOUNCED HELICITY DUE TO WIND VEER COULD SEE ORGANISED DEEP CONVECTION AND A RISK OF STRONG GUSTS AND VORTICES. FURTHER SOUTH, THE STRONG UPPER WIND FLOW MAY WELL KEEP CONVECTION LOW, BUT STILL PROVIDES FOR A RISK OF STRONG DOWNDRAFT GUSTS WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE ALREADY GUSTING TO AROUND 60MPH, POSSIBLY HIGHER FOR THE SOUTHEAST. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3OMM CAN BE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN REGIONS, POSSIBLY 50MM OVER HIGH GROUND, EXPOSED AREAS AND REGIONS CLOSE TO THE CHANNEL. FOLLOWING ON FROM THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AN UNSTABLE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE SUSTAINED JET MAINTAINS THE RISK OF STRONGER ISOLATED CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHWEST ENGLAND AND SOUTH WALES. ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL BE FAST-MOVING, STRONG GUSTS AND LOCALISED FLOODING COULD OCCUR AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES FOR SUCCESSIVE DAYS. FURTHER UPDATES AND ALERTS ARE POSSIBLE

At present i don't want to issue an update for Fridays storm because of the inconsistency of the model projections so i will leave the update here for just now. What i will do though is i will revert back on Wednesday morning with an update for Friday...we should have a clearer view then and it will allow us to get this storm out of the way!

Jamie

Thanks Jamie,

Your findings are most helpful and comprehensive, good job Sir!

Oz

Brilliant thanks Jamie.

Out of curiosity (and because i am currently on my phone and can't be bothered to search) does anyone know the record low pressure for the UK?

reply to post by Flavian


926.5 mb at Ochtertyre in Perthshire on 26th Jan 1884

btw it's worth noting that as well as these wnds, tomorrow could see the first snowfall of the winter over higher ground in Central and Southern England - places like the Cotswolds for example.

Originally posted by Essan
btw it's worth noting that as well as these wnds, tomorrow could see the first snowfall of the winter over higher ground in Central and Southern England - places like the Cotswolds for example.

Indeed, with the slight possibility of a 4-5 day prolonged cold spell after the storm on the 18th...That could bring us to around the 22nd with snow for some, however, models look like they are pushing for a mild Christmas...

I spoke to a business colleague in Scotland this morning and he tells me the media are predicting a storm of 'thundersnow' on Friday, excepting that this sounds like the name of some dodgy manga character, it is reported this storm will hit on Friday and consist of thunder, lightening, hail and snow.

gREAT thread the mods are hilarious . One thing certainly noted > the real alarmists are those very ones who are first to cry , "....Alarmists!"

What we know is it will be another lesson in assumptions , no matter what . The county court judgements say ....

Question : When is a person wrong ?
Answer 1 : When he is wrong .
Answer 2 : Not when he is not wrong .

BBC Countryfile (Sundays) gives a 'week ahead' forecast for so called farmers who enjoy a nice slice of propaganda. Anyhow , they showed both the storms . But , Saturday and Sunday , equally part of 'the week ahead' were not forecast . Its coming , from behind his right hip and over his left elbow , as far as we know , and we know not where it is from or why , op? Atlantic sea temps?

The Channel4 documentary about the Japan Tsunami aired last night haply didnt mention Fukushima at all . If the weather there were ok then I 'm sure they would delight in telling us, much like the collated info on cmes, that you only get , well, on ats .So , original thoughts were - great to see independent meteorological analysis
Oh, and the usual suspects, some new some missing.

If it all goes South or so to speak , its a new dawn for roofers , fencers , tree surgeons . Maybe economic 'regrowth' is an current 'answer' being held in estimation

Good afternoon Jamie,thank you for the long and great update. Now I've always wished to ask you, what is that long and thick black line in the GFS pressure chart? Is it the line separating the highs and lows, or maybe something else. I'm sure I know it, when you reply, but I just forgot right now. Thanks again.

Considering a person earlier up not wishing to sink to my level. I am sorry, I couldn't possibly know what Bawbag meant before my UK friend explained it to me today. So no offense, I am Russian after all. We don't give rude nicknames to our storms. And it did sound a little like "Blowbag" I dare not to think what that word means.

Originally posted by Essan
reply to post by Flavian

 

926.5 mb at Ochtertyre in Perthshire on 26th Jan 1884

Thanks very much Essan. So, not that close to the predicted but then not that far off either? It's gonna be blowey!

Originally posted by spacedonk
I spoke to a business colleague in Scotland this morning and he tells me the media are predicting a storm of 'thundersnow' on Friday, excepting that this sounds like the name of some dodgy manga character, it is reported this storm will hit on Friday and consist of thunder, lightening, hail and snow.

Genius! What is the special power then?

Seriously though, what the **** is 'thundersnow'? I have genuinely never heard of that before!

Originally posted by Flavian

Originally posted by spacedonk
I spoke to a business colleague in Scotland this morning and he tells me the media are predicting a storm of 'thundersnow' on Friday, excepting that this sounds like the name of some dodgy manga character, it is reported this storm will hit on Friday and consist of thunder, lightening, hail and snow.

Genius! What is the special power then?

Seriously though, what the **** is 'thundersnow'? I have genuinely never heard of that before!

I dont know but it sounds EPIC

Originally posted by Flavian

Originally posted by spacedonk
I spoke to a business colleague in Scotland this morning and he tells me the media are predicting a storm of 'thundersnow' on Friday, excepting that this sounds like the name of some dodgy manga character, it is reported this storm will hit on Friday and consist of thunder, lightening, hail and snow.

Genius! What is the special power then?

Seriously though, what the **** is 'thundersnow'? I have genuinely never heard of that before!

I have experienced 'thundersnow' before and it is beautiful! It happened where I live, East Tennessee, during the big storm of March 1993.

Before the blizzard blew in the temps in the area had been pushing 50 degrees. When the cold air got here we had thunderstorms during the snow fall. It happened near/after dark and was crazy to see all the snow falling during the flashes of lighting and hearing the thunder was unreal. Normally when it snows in this area, unless there is wind with the storm, it is usually very quite.

OiO

reply to post by Flavian


Thundersnow is a thunderstorm accompanies by snow. Since thunderstorms can happen anywhere but the South and North Poles. I'd say the hurricane's low pressure leads to creation of Cumulonimbus clouds that give off tornadoes?, snow and thunder. I've only seen it once in Russia, 1997, when I was a child on a family ski trip in January. We were in a forest and this huge thunder struck the sky, I was rather afraid then. So we turned tails and went home again. Weather in Russia was rather weird in 997 and 1998. In 1998 Moscow had the only hurricane force winds in a long time. And I was woken up in my high rise building exactly at midnight by a horrible lightning strike. Sorry for the slight offtop. Just to explain what thundersnow was, how I've met it around the weird years of 1997-1998

reply to post by OneisOne


That is soooooooo cool. I can't wait, hence the childish response!

Thanks for letting me know what to expect. I can see me outside for hours in this if it actually happens.

Cheers for the heads up OP. Will stock up on torch batteries and candles just in case

reply to post by RumET


And thanks to you too RumET, your reply is much appreciated.

I always assumed Russia would have pretty incredible weather seeing as there is so much country for any systems to cross? (dramatic extremes either way).

It is definitely a country i have always been drawn too - in my mind there is much in common between the UK and Russia (in terms of the people rather than the State).