Magnitude 7.3 - EASTERN TURKEY

Strong earthquake hit Turkey ,very bad situation there ....

Is very strong for that area ..

Think we have two aftershocke but need time for confirmation, one is M 5.0+ second is M 6.0 + ..

Here is my prediction for this two around M 7.5 in this days and for area too, think is not over yet I post update there in 24 hours ..

www.abovetopsecret.com...

Magnitude 7.3
Date-Time

Sunday, October 23, 2011 at 10:41:21 UTC
Sunday, October 23, 2011 at 01:41:21 PM at epicenter

Location 38.627°N, 43.535°E
Depth 7.2 km (4.5 miles) set by location program
Region EASTERN TURKEY
Distances

19 km (12 miles) NE (43°) from Van, Turkey
116 km (72 miles) N (351°) from Hakkari, Turkey
130 km (81 miles) SSE (161°) from Karakose (Agri), Turkey
192 km (119 miles) SSW (206°) from YEREVAN, Armenia

earthquake.usgs.gov...

dude that's so crazy. how many major earthquakes has there been in the past 2 years? a lot.

If the quake is a big as the intial reports say (and it may get adjusted), this could be very bad. The quake was very shallow at only 7.2 km (4.5 miles) and the city of Van is not far away. (19 km -- approx 12 miles).

Van is quite a large, regional city. It has a population of somewhere around 1/2 million. Considering that the city is very old, with people having lived there for thousands of years, it is very likely that many of the buildings were not built to high quake-resistant standards. (Quite a good article on Van in the wiki here.)

It's almost beyond question that there will be property damage and casualties. We can only hope that the numbers will be small.

Note: on average, this planet gets around a dozen magnitude 7-range quakes per year. Including today's there have been 19 mag 7 or larger quakes this year, but the firgures are skewed by the effects of the huge quaked in Japan back on March 11, which had a Mag 7.3 foreshock, then the mag 9.0, and several mag 7-plus aftershocks.

It's always the case that when there is a truly huge quake somewhere, the figures for mag 7-plus quakes are above average for that year. But other years, we don't even get any mag 8-plus quakes at all and the numbers can be relatively low. Long-term, while this year has been rather busy, it is not extraordinary.

Mike

Ahh, expect many casualties.

www.theyeshivaworld.com...[UPDATED-13%3A17-IL].html

Buildings have collapsed apparently. Watch for pressure being spread around the med. Greece has been swarming too,

reply to post by Dalke07


ouch, defintely look out for aftershocks!
id say i hope everyones ok, but i doubt it considering the depth and location.. very very shallow and a densley populated area.

PuterMan open thread and all are there, don't have any will more to post and put information ..

I 'm not here to races with anyone, think I deserves more respect ..


Peace ..

Here is aftershocks for now ..

Oh my God is very bad there I hope all time is not that strong, we pray for minimal consequences ..

Quake was shallow and area are populated, mach old buildings there ..

2011-10-23 12:20:00.708min ago 38.81 N 43.65 E 5 3.7 EASTERN TURKEY
2011-10-23 12:13:07.815min ago 38.79 N 43.16 E 5 3.8 EASTERN TURKEY
2011-10-23 12:03:10.025min ago 38.70 N 43.14 E 7 4.3 EASTERN TURKEY
2011-10-23 11:32:41.055min ago 38.82 N 43.33 E 17 5.9 EASTERN TURKEY
2011-10-23 11:19:06.01hr 09min ago 38.76 N 43.41 E 7 4.2 EASTERN TURKEY
2011-10-23 11:16:25.01hr 12min ago 38.84 N 43.27 E 7 3.6 EASTERN TURKEY
2011-10-23 11:10:55.01hr 17min ago 38.79 N 43.49 E 8 4.8 EASTERN TURKEY
2011-10-23 11:00:14.01hr 28min ago 38.56 N 43.52 E 10 4.2 EASTERN TURKEY
2011-10-23 10:56:53.01hr 31min ago 38.75 N 43.41 E 50 5.6 EASTERN TURKEY
2011-10-23 10:53:41.01hr 34min ago 38.75 N 43.20 E 7 5.1 EASTERN TURKEY
2011-10-23 10:52:05.01hr 36min ago 38.76 N 43.25 E 7 4.8 EASTERN TURKEY
2011-10-23 10:48:16.01hr 40min ago 38.71 N 43.31 E 2 4.9 EASTERN TURKEY
1 VI 2011-10-23 10:41:22.01hr 47min ago 38.86 N 43.48 E 10 7.3 EASTERN TURKEY

www.emsc-csem.org...

"Two buildings collapsed in Van, but the telephone system is jammed due to panic and we can't assess the entire damage immediately," Bekir Kaya, the mayor of Van, told NTV television.

"There are so many dead. Several buildings have collapsed, there is too much destruction," said Zulfikar Arapoglu, the mayor for the town of Ercis told NTV television.

"We need urgent aid, we need medics," he added.

hosted.ap.org...

reply to post by Dalke07


Dalke you make me feel bad. I tend to concentrate on the technical aspects, If you want to look at the human angle I am sure you would be better at that than me.

Regrettably we are in the situation of two threads not by carelessness or anything else other than that I opened my page and gathered information, and you obviously got your information together quicker. We probably hit the 'new thread' button at the same time.

As I have said on my thread I am perfectly happy if the mods close mine.

Peace

reply to post by PuterMan


You make my fell very bad ..

I post there close mine, for my is already closed ..

I'm not here to race with you or someone else ..

If you want to put information and inform us you could post on my thread, if is only that important to you ..

But you open thread like i see many you don't have respect ..

Is only important to you to be No.1 for seismic threads ?

Your knowledge is limited if you be like that ..

That's way I did not join your thread qveke watch and when I do in end i left very soon ..

Lo0l ..

I'm out for this one ..

Peace ..

I am still waiting on the earthquake that is so catastrophic it changes the world so bad that rand/mcnally have to go redraw their maps. Wake me up when that happens. Still a quake that is greater than 5.0 is nothing to sneeze at, i get them where i live weekly but they are below 4.0.

reply to post by Dalke07

But you open thread like i see many you don't have respect ..

Is only important to you to be No.1 for seismic threads ?

This is just not so Dalke. Your thread was NOT there when I clicked on the create new thread button. Do you not understand that?

OK. I don't wish to upset you so if the mods will not close my thread then I will direct everyone here because if you have noticed I actually do not normally start seismic threads, in fact very very rarely. I have quake watch and katla and that is about it.

reply to post by lonewolf19792000


WTF!?. An earthquake is an earthquake, and there's a # load more of them nowadays, too many.
They're getting worse and spreading everywhere haven't you noticed?

To me it sounds like the world has already started to change.

Reply to Alysha.Angel from my thread

www.abovetopsecret.com...

also PM if you look on the map of the epic center it is right accross the lake from a volcano which has me worried esp with the dept of the quake . . just wanted you to know .

Yup I had noticed that - in fact there are a few there.

ok posting to keep track off
second something

Originally posted by lonewolf19792000
I am still waiting on the earthquake that is so catastrophic it changes the world so bad that rand/mcnally have to go redraw their maps. Wake me up when that happens. Still a quake that is greater than 5.0 is nothing to sneeze at, i get them where i live weekly but they are below 4.0.

I think that you should make yourself aware that different areas are affected differently. Anything over a mag 6.0 in Turkey is likely to cause damage and potentially loss of like.

Believe me if a 7.2 hit in your home area of Arkansas you would find that it would be a world changer for you.

Originally posted by PuterMan
Reply to Alysha.Angel from my thread

www.abovetopsecret.com...

also PM if you look on the map of the epic center it is right accross the lake from a volcano which has me worried esp with the dept of the quake . . just wanted you to know .

Yup I had noticed that - in fact there are a few there.

oh boo boo

i dont know i just dont know but my senses are all up and running on this baby . and the outlook is not good .
i have to agree with whatshisusername on the issue that the 7.3 was a foreshock and possibly cause a volcanic eruption say within the next 6 months . i dont like this feeling of mine at all.

reply to post by PuterMan
Sorry man don't get it that harsh,I told you that the imsal server is down,will see in few days that I'm right,and I always will be right,the problem is like I use to say a week ago WHAT IS WRONG WITH AFRICA ,the plates are pressing fast much more faster than before!!!

reply to post by diamondsmith

I told you that the imsal server is down

You did, but what is the imsal server?

I hope you are wrong, but can you give a bit more detail on your reasoning?

reply to post by PuterMan
www.lmsal.com... saw the charts yesterday they where very bad,this time it's BIG!!

reply to post by lonewolf19792000

This is no time for cynical remarks and I'm sorry, but that's how I see your post. Forgive me if I've read it wrongly.

Do you recall the Haiti quake of Jan 12, 2010? That was a mag 7.0 -- meaning it was smaller than this quake in Turkey today -- and it killed tens of thousands of people. The lowest estimate I could find was 46,000 dead; the Haitian govt puts the figure at around 300,000 dead.

Sadly, that region of Turkey is in some ways similar. Many of the homes that people live in are URMs -- unreinforced masonry -- or even mud brick constructions for some of the very old ones. The same situation applied with the quake in Bam, Iran, on Dec 26, 2003. That quake was a mag 6.6 -- much less powerful than today's Turkey quake -- but it killed more than 26,000 people. Most of them died because their homes just collapsed into rubble and there was no way to get enough heavy equipment there in time to dig them out.

And as for the more modern buildings that are supposed to be built to good standards in that region, both in Turkey and the surrounding countries, all throughout that part of the world the "baksheesh" (bribe) system holds sway: building firms budget for bribes to govt officials so that they can get their constructions finished as fast as possible with the minimum of paperwork and "safety inspections", and at the lowest possible price. They cut corners something fierce.

Having said all that, no matter where you live in the world you wouldn't want a quake of this size in your backyard. Even though very modern, well-constructed buildings will usually withstand such an event, that won't stop the failure of infrastructure like ruptured pipelines for gas, water and sewage, wrecked power cables and underground phone lines, failure or severe damage to roadways, older bridges and viaducts, and even cracking or fracturing of dams. Just those factors alone can cause massive disruption and lead to disease and great hardship for many, especially with winter approaching (and yes, it gets cold there), but in a region where there are many old homes basically made of local stone and held together with dried mud, the damage can be catastrophic.

Mike