Will Hurricane Irene be a "black swan" for the U.S. economy?

Will Hurricane Irene be a "black swan" for the U.S. economy?

blogs.reuters.com

Back in 2005, the economy was growing at a 3-4 percent clip. Today, it’s less than 2 percent. Maybe even less than 1 percent. It seems pretty clear a devastating hit on the Big Apple might well send the economy back into recession. And given the current fragility of consumer and business confidence, how likely is it that the economy would quickly bounce back into growth in a quarter or two?

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A black swan is an event or occurrence that deviates beyond what is normally expected of a situation and that would be extremely difficult to predict. This term was popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a finance professor and former Wall Street trader.

It certainly is an interesting premise. With the US economy showing such significant signs of weakness, what will the effect be if Irene directly hits the hemispheres financial capital? Is this a flash in the pan event, or does the possible disruption of banking, finance and trading pose a serous risk for the longer term economic activity of the country?


blogs.reuters.com
(visit the link for the full news article)

reply to post by SirMike



On the flip side, it is a chance for people to work together and try to prevent a greater disaster. FEMA could do it's job and come out looking good. Maybe the storm will subside some and give people a break. Are there nuclear reactors in the danger area?

This will just be interesting to see if other countries will help for our disaster relief. Hopefully Irene won't be that bad.

Originally posted by yourmamaknows
reply to post by SirMike

 

On the flip side, it is a chance for people to work together and try to prevent a greater disaster. FEMA could do it's job and come out looking good. Maybe the storm will subside some and give people a break. Are there nuclear reactors in the danger area?

Sorry but there's no way to "prevent" a hurricane or its effects and FEMA "looking good" doesn't help the economy in any way. In fact, the more FEMA has to do, the more money they're taking FROM the economy to do "the do".
Hopefully the storm will subside or take a sudden sidestep or even better turn. Yes there are nuke plants here in Virginny.

I know that Katrina, Rita, and Ike definitely gave the economy a huge boost on the gulf coast. Not something to wish for but there is a silver lining to appreciate.

I agree with _______ (see 2 posts up), I think financially it might hurt no matter how you look at it.


a little off topic.... am I the only one looking forward to this hurricane? I haven't been hit since Floyd and by the time he hit me (in 1999, right before Y2K... was ATS around then? what were people saying about Floyd?) he wasn't even classified a hurricane anymore

I never saw so much water in my life! I want to see it again!!!


I got an EQ and a Hurricane all in the same week I feel like I won the lottery

reply to post by SirMike


I was having a conversation earlier today that went along the lines of...

The old West coast is the new East coast.

Now I know a lot of people say that Cali is sliding into the sea....but what if DC did instead?

Things that make you say, Hmmmm?

Originally posted by SirMike

It seems pretty clear a devastating hit on the Big Apple might well send the economy back into recession.

It never fails. Every damn economic report from mainstream news is always slipping in this "the recession ended two years ago" crap. Stop repeating this nonsense, PLEASE. It's so blatantly absurd I don't think even the dumbest of the brainwashed sheeple are falling for it. Unemployment, the deficit, governmental corruption, etc. is getting worse by the day, and you're trying to tell me we're in a recovery?

Actually what will happen is this. In the event it hits land and does damage, then a week or so later a new report will come out saying how much employment is going up and making the economy looking better, when in fact it is only a temporary employment rise, once the cleanup is done, those people will be unemployed again.

By definition I don't think this constitutes a black swan, there is a margin of predictability here so far as they know its coming. I believe that you are looking more at the outcome. To that point the biggest potential impact will be a lot of dumb asses standing in harms way taking pictures on their smartphones. Katrina was a good example of this, too many people underestimated the storms potential, were extremely cavalier and paid dearly. I think this storm will present similar results.

From a financial impact its anyone guess. The chair satan himself, Ben Bernanke, speaks tomorrow and that could usher in a lot of economic turmoil without this hurricanes effects. According to the news though roughly 8% of americas oil/energy needs are situated in refineries directly in this storms projected path. Oil prices will most likely surge.

The storm could also generate a lot of short term employment in the trades sector given the potential for damage and rebuilding.

brill

yeah, atlantic hurricanes only happen once every 250 years

we're all doomed

Irene is bad news. Look for a crash on Monday, thats if Wall street is not flooded. THE WORST PART IS PEOPLE WILL DIE. This is a killer storm.

Didn't I hear Krugman saying something like he wished the East Coast Earthquake had done just a bit more damage so it would'v created some jobs that the economy badly needs?

The economic impact of a cat 3+ hitting any where north of North Caroline is a real unknown. There is a historical record of such storms hitting the area, but it's been so long since we've seen one we really don't know how the area will hold up with the urban development since the last storm. We know what happens when powerful storms hit the Gulf, Florida, or the Carolinas.

I live about 200 miles inland from the Gulf and the Atlantic. I've seen a couple in my lifetime make it this far inland and maintain CAT 1 (Opal in 1995). I'd recommend extreme caution to folks in the mid-Atlantic who live near the coast. I think a Cat 1 or 2 are fine to ride out, but anything bigger is a serious force to be reconed with.

actually New York City NEEDS a hurricane...clean out the garbage and the trash...boost it all across the board..I made it thru Katrina quite easily..os can N'Yawk

I don't think Nassim Taleb is much of a theorist. I haven't read any of his books, but I watched a talk by him once. Seemed like nonsense to me. 'Random things happen and sometimes they have big consequences' - is that a theory? How does the swan come into this, why is it black?

If its destroyed of badly damaged wouldnt it create lots of jobs rebuilding?

If its destroyed of badly damaged wouldnt it create lots of jobs rebuilding?

Originally posted by Agit8dChop
If its destroyed of badly damaged wouldnt it create lots of jobs rebuilding?

No, see The broken window fallacy