The real threat from Iran

For some time we have heard how Iran is rushing to acquire nuclear weapons; the entire propaganda war is based on this premise. However the real danger is being totally ignored and is just as legitimate for military action.

I was educated on the basis of "Don't waste the truth", but it seems those in power prefer what will maximise fear. Granted Iran probably IS chasing nuclear weapons but I think it more likely that they will have acquired them (bought from old Russian states, North Korea or Pakistan) than produce them themselves. So for me it would be far more believable, especially after the Iraq WMD lie to use a REAL threat that everyone can see and realise, rather than one that has had its credibility crushed from previous lie's.

So what is this REAL threat? quite simply it is total economic collapse and the death of millions of people from an oil embargo. To the younger readers that probably sounds just as crazy as Iran getting a nuclear bomb.

The oil crisis started in October 1973, when the members of Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries or the OAPEC (consisting of the Arab members of OPEC, plus Egypt, Syria and Tunisia) proclaimed an oil embargo. This was "in response to the U.S. decision to re-supply the Israeli military" during the Yom Kippur war. Now we have a very similar situation, only this time Ahmadinejad is the president of Iran's oil ministry as well as being in control of OPEC.

If or more likely "when" Iran cuts off our oil we will be left in a dire situation that is being compounded by Obama releasing the stratigic oil reserves. This means that when the embargo comes the US will have already reduced what oil they do have by at least 33%.

As many know, the system we live in requires just in time delivery of EVERYTHING, health care supplies, food, water, heating gas, petrol everything! So when this embargo comes our entire system will collapse and we will be forced to fight on the back foot to regain our supplies.

If they had REAL proof that Iran was making a nuclear bomb and launch site we would blow them off the face of the Earth, but we have not because they are not. What they ARE doing though is getting ready to destroy us through stealth and by using the very system we proclaim to be masters of, the Free Market Economy.

I am sure Ahmadinejad has a wry smile at the irony of destroying America and Europe using our own system of supply and demand. He is doing nothing illegal in terms of trade, they have the right not to sell us oil and it is our fault for becoming so dependent on it. However, what he is doing is not a trade war, it is premeditated WAR. One must not forget that he knows he cannot fight us in the air or on the sea. He does have a better chance on land though due to the massive numbers of troops. We would take heavy losses but we would win using a Blitzkrieg style attack.

The main problem we face is that if we do nothing until they do something it will be too late! We have to act before our supply chain and reserves are destroyed. I have always been 100% against the war in Iraq and Afghanistan but this time we really DO have a reason to go to war!

If I had to make a bet, I would bet we will not go to war with Iran; even though it is the first time we actually NEED to go to war !!! !!!!

dont worry, we'll be invaded Iran any day now...

Hey I didn;t even think of it when I heard the president Obama was going release the strategic supply of oil. Your right we didn;t even need to release that yet wer enot in that much of dire straits. But Gas has taken a significant drop of as of late. But yeah we could really be in trouble if I ran does what you said.

So your really for a war for resources and basically likea thug style nature in just taking what we need??

Surely Iran like everyone else has to earn income and hers comes from exporting oil, so why are you worrying about her stopping oil. Saudi would still support the USA, they always have.

Your threat actually comes from within, you need to ask why would Obama release these oil reserves, especially if it were not necessary. - Is he running out of cash?

reply to post by American-philosopher


This isn't a case of "We want it so we will take it", if we allow this to happen the entire US would collpase and there would be anachy on a scale greater than if they set off a nuke in NY, Washington and LA at the same time.

A nuke attack would be relatively easy to cope with (purely from an administration and emergency stand point) in comparison.

So we now find ourselves in a passafist situation of do nohing and hope they do nothing or protect 300 million people. In the war game situaitons they plan for over 70% of the people will die as a result of a total breakdown is the supply chain within 6 months. So if you take away the war and destruction and just have the collpase, you will still have over 50% of the population die from the supply collpase. THAT is worth going to war to prevent!

reply to post by Lynda101


Your point is valid, but it also leads to total collpase requring intervention to protect 300 million people; unless you want to be a passifist in which case 150 million Americans will die instead of maybe 1-2 million Iranians.

Tho not quite old enough to remember the time.. I know the impact was great and when I consider our increased reliance on oil it does indeed seem to a logical tactic to use..

I guess that could explain why they are going hell for leather to start extracting the oil in my part of Southern England..

reply to post by thoughtsfull


May very ewll be the case that they know this is going to happen, although I think around the Uk we have light crude which is ok for making oil products but i do not think it can be used for petrol.

reply to post by theregonnakillme


I have to admit that I have no idea what type of crude they are extracting although I have dug into this extensively I've not been able to find out.. I guess I was being the selfish type and only considering our ancient woods where the wells are being sunk.

Sad day today, reading bull crap threads like this OP! Bullies and Thugs... So if you don't have it! You take IT!... True American way hey, Arn't you getting any oil from Gadaffi.... Oh yeah! ur NOT YET! IRAQ, You fed us all this WMD lies to Kill and slaughter innocent people to get there oil. I'm fed up of all this bull s h i t of WMD we innocent people get fed lies by MSM which is drummed up by corrupt government untouchables to support there Brain washing ways. If Iran has Nukes or not?... Like to see you try and get some oil from Iran and they nuke ur ass.

Why do you have to drain us good citizens of our hard earnt money in taxes to fight countries (WAR) for there valuable minerals. Look at USA at the moment.... Its economy on the verge of collapse and you feed more money into wars....I wouldnt mind being taxed if they used the money to find a way of alternative power or energy source which is not over Blood shed!

Peace...

reply to post by Grand Master


Nice little self righteous piece, but you use "the just in time" distribution system for everything you purchase and use oil products to get to the shops along with the oil products used for all the packaging of the things you buy; which makes you part of the problem.

Complaining about the elites does not exempt you. You obviously did not read the thread properly either as you would have seen this is nothing to do with WMD, nor do i support the bogus wars. THIS situation however WILL causes major harm and DEATH to us.

You seem to dislike what is giong on and also want to do nothing in the face of million dieing. That is your right as a free person with liberties that are protected by.... The Elites, obviously this works in their favour, but none the less they are still protecting your way of life.

Don't like what they are doing? then you need to change your lifestyle! Dont buy anything that comes in a plastic rapper, don;t use a car, only use the bus, bicycle or horse, grow your own food and always vote for the green party.

I am guessing that you will do none of those things and continue to complain about those that provide you with the life style YOU want.

reply to post by theregonnakillme


Your entire theory is just part of what has been considered, strategized and is currently being carried out by the Western powers that be.

For instance, the whole strategy for the West to dominate OPEC was considered pre-911, and even briefed to Canadian military brass in late 2001 to gain support from Canada, who has a stake in what the oil prices are set as and who controls the remaining oil supply.

It all has to do with economic growth. North America and a few European countries are working together to secure the reigns of economic prosperity for the upcoming years. The other major players are Russia, China and India seem to be trying to work towards their own separate interests, in preparation for when the Western stranglehold over world economies loosens up.

Originally posted by theregonnakillme
For some time we have heard how Iran is rushing to acquire nuclear weapons; the entire propaganda war is based on this premise. However the real danger is being totally ignored and is just as legitimate for military action.

I was educated on the basis of "Don't waste the truth", but it seems those in power prefer what will maximise fear. Granted Iran probably IS chasing nuclear weapons but I think it more likely that they will have acquired them (bought from old Russian states, North Korea or Pakistan) than produce them themselves. So for me it would be far more believable, especially after the Iraq WMD lie to use a REAL threat that everyone can see and realise, rather than one that has had its credibility crushed from previous lie's.

So what is this REAL threat? quite simply it is total economic collapse and the death of millions of people from an oil embargo. To the younger readers that probably sounds just as crazy as Iran getting a nuclear bomb.

The oil crisis started in October 1973, when the members of Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries or the OAPEC (consisting of the Arab members of OPEC, plus Egypt, Syria and Tunisia) proclaimed an oil embargo. This was "in response to the U.S. decision to re-supply the Israeli military" during the Yom Kippur war. Now we have a very similar situation, only this time Ahmadinejad is the president of Iran's oil ministry as well as being in control of OPEC.

If or more likely "when" Iran cuts off our oil we will be left in a dire situation that is being compounded by Obama releasing the stratigic oil reserves. This means that when the embargo comes the US will have already reduced what oil they do have by at least 33%.

As many know, the system we live in requires just in time delivery of EVERYTHING, health care supplies, food, water, heating gas, petrol everything! So when this embargo comes our entire system will collapse and we will be forced to fight on the back foot to regain our supplies.

If they had REAL proof that Iran was making a nuclear bomb and launch site we would blow them off the face of the Earth, but we have not because they are not. What they ARE doing though is getting ready to destroy us through stealth and by using the very system we proclaim to be masters of, the Free Market Economy.

I am sure Ahmadinejad has a wry smile at the irony of destroying America and Europe using our own system of supply and demand. He is doing nothing illegal in terms of trade, they have the right not to sell us oil and it is our fault for becoming so dependent on it. However, what he is doing is not a trade war, it is premeditated WAR. One must not forget that he knows he cannot fight us in the air or on the sea. He does have a better chance on land though due to the massive numbers of troops. We would take heavy losses but we would win using a Blitzkrieg style attack.

The main problem we face is that if we do nothing until they do something it will be too late! We have to act before our supply chain and reserves are destroyed. I have always been 100% against the war in Iraq and Afghanistan but this time we really DO have a reason to go to war!

If I had to make a bet, I would bet we will not go to war with Iran; even though it is the first time we actually NEED to go to war !!! !!!!

Problem is, there has been actual proof that Iran HAS been trying to build WMDs(unlike Iraq, where no actual proof was really found), and probably would use them at some point if they were able to build them; but the U.S. military did absolutely nothing(Covert strikes before March of 2003 probably would've done the job!). We instead invaded Iraq under crappy pretenses and Bush helped ruin America's reputation across the world, possibly to the point where we couldn't do much if somebody actually attacked us.

But don't think Russia'll get off scot free, either. The Islamists in general still do hate Russia a LOT; remember, it was the premier Communist state in the world up until 20 years ago(that title now belongs to Cuba, as neither N. Korea or China are actually Communist), and they HATED the Soviets for their intervention in Afghanistan. There's plenty of them in Chechnya alone............

reply to post by AverageJoe1


I don't think you're right about the Russian thing.

First off, Arabs aren't Persians. During the 1979 Iranian Revolution, it was the leftists and Islamic fundamentalists that rose up against the Shah. The Shah shunned the Islamic movement as a non-threat and focused his violence against the leftists. Doing so lead to the rise of the Islamic rebel forces, who were fighting alongside the remaining leftists.

When it was over, the mullahs achieved power and the leftist struggle did not. However, Ayatollah Khomeni certainly turned his back on the West and was much more friendly towards Soviet interests afterwards.

Nowadays I don't think there is nearly the same animosity against Russia. In fact, Iran has always shared a boarder with Russia and they have many cultural exchanges. Russia has also been more than willing to support governments in the region with arms sales.

Also, last time I checked, the rebels that Russia fought in Afghanistan and Chechnya are Sunni extremists. Iran is Shia. They don't exactly get along to start with.

Originally posted by Dimitri Dzengalshlevi
reply to post by AverageJoe1

 

I don't think you're right about the Russian thing.

First off, Arabs aren't Persians. During the 1979 Iranian Revolution, it was the leftists and Islamic fundamentalists that rose up against the Shah. The Shah shunned the Islamic movement as a non-threat and focused his violence against the leftists. Doing so lead to the rise of the Islamic rebel forces, who were fighting alongside the remaining leftists.

When it was over, the mullahs achieved power and the leftist struggle did not. However, Ayatollah Khomeni certainly turned his back on the West and was much more friendly towards Soviet interests afterwards.

Nowadays I don't think there is nearly the same animosity against Russia. In fact, Iran has always shared a boarder with Russia and they have many cultural exchanges. Russia has also been more than willing to support governments in the region with arms sales.

Also, last time I checked, the rebels that Russia fought in Afghanistan and Chechnya are Sunni extremists. Iran is Shia. They don't exactly get along to start with.

Only problem is, this does NOT explain the Iran-Contra deals that happened back in '86. Take that into account, as well as the support for the mujihadeen(yes, I know damn well Iranians aren't Arabs, thank you very well.)and it starts to become plainly obvious that the supposed friendship with Russia was for show(as in, just to f*** with America), and most likely at least partially fabricated, with possible assistance from the U.S. mainstream news media.
Hell, even today, the misinformation continues: truth is, contrary to MIC propaganda(even the Israeli gov't has been in on it from time to time!), Russia isn't the superpower it once was, nor do they have any real love for the Iranians. In fact, at least 2 of the Iranian government's allies were on a list of terror organizations; Hamas, and Hezbollah.

Hopefully, Medvedev will have the intelligence & fortitude to back Russia away from the scumbags running Tehran before they get backstabbed; I'd rather not wait until an Iranian nuke blows up downtown Moscow or Krasnoyarsk.

reply to post by AverageJoe1


Iran-Contra somehow proves that Iran's relation to Russia is a show?

Iran was playing the US big time. Why? Because even though the CIA put the Shah in power, it was the same Shah that threatened US oil interests by proclaiming new nationalist policies and OPEC domination. It was in the US's interests to see him replaced, and there's even references that the CIA helped Khomeni into power (Reagen slipped up once in his White House addresses).

The US saw the Islamic republic as being an easy target to manipulate in their favor against the Soviets, like they were doing with rebels in Afghanistan at the time.

While the US embassy was taken over with many hostages, the US had reasons not to conduct a serious rescue op. They sent in helicopter-bourne special ops who were decimated over remote desert with no real answers as to who did it, nor any significant retaliation.

The Contra deal was just another instrument for Iran to acquire weapons. Said weapons held off the Iraqi assault.

As for modern situation, Russia is supplying advanced weapons and building nuclear reactors for Iran. Russia is Iran's most influential ally right now. Russia is not working with the US agenda and obviously wants to arm fortress Iran as part of proxy relations in the region.

You want to talk about scum? Look at Saakashvili in Georgia. Even after murdering Russian peacekeepers, bombing civilians and instigating armed conflict with Russia, the US is still it's major ally (It also separates the Russian-Iran land border). It's geopolitical proxy conflict and Russia has no plans to give up such a powerful regional "bishop" in the Asian chessgame.