China to lead world economy

China to lead world economy

www.theage.com.au

CHINA is about to overtake the United States as the world's biggest economy, creating profound changes in the balance of global power.

In forecasts inserted quietly on its website in recent days, the International Monetary Fund has projected that, by 2016, China will overtake the US in real economic output - the first time in the modern era that any country has done so.

Economic historian Angus Maddison estimated that the Soviet Union at its peak produced only a third as many goods and service.

(visit the link for the full news article)

The report also goes on to say ......

The US would still be the world's biggest market. If China keeps its currency heavily undervalued, as it is now, the IMF projects that, in nominal terms, by 2016 the US economy will still be two-thirds larger than China's.

But this gap would simply reflect currency values. Factor in relative prices, and China's real output of goods and services would be the world's biggest.

Given the way things have been going , I am sure that none of this comes as any surprise to us here on ATS . But having said that , how does it make you feel and how do you see the world change as a result of this , assuming it does happen as reported ?



www.theage.com.au
(visit the link for the full news article)

deleted due to OP misunderstanding of my wager... I think Chinas economic growth has been falsely projected by the manipulation of thier currency. Thier dept is massive and they have big problems brewing bunch of underpaid smart people who have had enough. The US with the advice of Trump which he has already given on cnn would drop China in rank in under a year. They wont be taking the number 1 spot even if it means War with China Russia and North Korea. Atleast thats how I feel anyway. And yes then we have WW3.

Isn't China becoming increasingly Unstable over the years? I mean they have problems such as Tibetans, Uighurs, etc

Another thing that is giving them trouble is there , " minimum wage " . It was reported the other day on an English Chinese news website , that the government plans on doubling there minimum wage over the next 5 years .

When it gets down to it , as there economy grows they will have to increase the working wage and create a real middle class of there own . If they don't , it will kill them quicker then any other political issue .

reply to post by 5StarOracle


I tend to agree , at our current rate it will likely be sooner

Originally posted by Max_TO

" The US would still be the world's biggest market. If China keeps its currency heavily undervalued, as it is now, the IMF projects that, in nominal terms, by 2016 the US economy will still be two-thirds larger than China's.

It was just a matter of time considering they have anywhere from 1.3 to 1.5 billion people [Depending on whose numbers you use] I'm more interested in how they intend to shift all that wealth from the few [Relatively speaking] to the masses out in Rural areas. Also being the largest economy is far from creating Global hegemony which the West has been able to do. It will be interesting to watch the world return to a multi-polar world.

I'd like to see China stop with the artificial currency manipulation.

how does it make you feel and how do you see the world change as a result of this , assuming it does happen as reported ?

I'm not personally worried.

I still have my home, health and various bottles of spirits.

just think people we made this possible

by us buying all their cheap crap

by the government borrowing its way into oblivion

without us china wouldnt be where they are.

yet another country america built.

we work for china now as slave labor every tax dollar we get comes from china

aint american grand?


not really it just shows us how stupid this country has become.

its our own fault for not stopping our insane government.

and i hate it.

Originally posted by SLAYER69

I'm not personally worried.

I still have my home, health and various bottle of spirits.

You forgot to also mention that really cool ATS star bot

As for the rest of your comments I tend to agree .
I often wonder if one of the many reasons that they keep there currency undervalued is do to the lack of a middle class majority . Perhaps they want to work on transferring there current wealth within there boarders before allowing the market to dictate there currencies value .

I also can't help but wonder how there system and policy will effect this onward march of globalization we see through international policy from such places as the IMF and the UN .

China has to use all that wealth they made to spend on commodities to address the needs and wants of their people. I doubt it will last.

reply to post by deltaboy


Funny you mention that because that's what they are doing . They are buying commodities , American natural resources , with American debt .

They just so happen to also be investing in a huge way in Africa . They also recognize the need for resources .

reply to post by Max_TO


Just like the U.S. did by investing around the world. Is China trying to be like the U.S. thats just sad.

reply to post by neo96


You lament Americans buying cheap, crappy Chinese products....and then say were THEIR slaves.....right.

My usual observation is always the same... define "China."

Do we mean the Central Banking Institution?

Do we mean the Military-Industrial sector?

Do we mean the Ruling Elite class?

Or are we actually entertaining the idea that over a billion people collectively are "doing this?"

Let's face it people. It's never the people. It's always those who collectively maintain policy-setting privileges... and in particular, the one's with the monetary policy-setting monopoly.

In that regard, it's not "The Chinese" at all.

Originally posted by neo96
just think people we made this possible

by us buying all their cheap crap

by the government borrowing its way into oblivion

without us china wouldnt be where they are.

yet another country america built.

we work for china now as slave labor every tax dollar we get comes from china

aint american grand?


not really it just shows us how stupid this country has become.

its our own fault for not stopping our insane government.

and i hate it.

edit on 24-4-2011 by neo96 because: (no reason given)

Wal-mart will not exist without Chinese cheap product, let me ask you a question, are you willing to pay 50 dollar on a shirt made in America or 10 dollar shirt made in China?

reply to post by MikeBoss


i tend to stay away from walmart as much as i can in fact i dont buy clothes at walmart

reply to post by Gainsayer


yeah man if money and time is taken away from us americans without our consent without due compensation that is slavery.

our tax money is taken away by the government and then our government in turns begs china please buy our treasuries and that money in turns pay the slave labor of china

the the double whammy happens when people flock to walmart and buys all that cheap crap made off that cheap chinese slave labor.

Originally posted by MikeBoss
Wal-mart will not exist without Chinese cheap product, let me ask you a question, are you willing to pay 50 dollar on a shirt made in America or 10 dollar shirt made in China?

Which costs .50 cents in either country to manufacture.

Let's be real here. Retailers/Wall street like the higher profits from cheap products made abroad. The difference if made in the US would be employing Americans in both Manufacturing and retail. which also carries the costs of health insurance and retirement etc With Wal-Mart under cutting the local businesses and paying their employees peanuts ends up destroying local economies [driving out the long established mom and pop retailers] and then sending their locally made profits out of state to their headquarters while again, putting little or nothing back into the local communities. It's a double wammi.

reply to post by neo96


So which is it? Last time I checked, Americans are not the ones working terrible hours with few benefits in factories to supply China with cheap crap.

Concerning US debt, you also have that backwards. Nobody is begging China to buy US bonds. China has enormous wealth right now, and have to invest it in something stable and secure. That would be US bonds, not Europe and definitely not Japan. Despite all the fearmongering, US debt is still the most reliable.

reply to post by Gainsayer

So which is it? Last time I checked, Americans are not the ones working terrible hours with few benefits in factories to supply China with cheap crap.

i am sure if you ask americans every single one of them will tell you they are overworked and underpaid.


loool the us doesn't beg china for money!!!!!!!!!!!!! i swear

the 14 trillion dollar in debt government is begging for money i assure you

reply to post by neo96


Keep your assurances, my friend. Nobody in their right mind would trade places with the average Chinese worker. Overworked and underpaid compared to Europeans perhaps, definitely not the Chinese.