Yellowstone Preparedness - Ashfall

With the potential for an eruption of the Yellowstone Supervolcano, I thought it might be useful, and possibly beneficial, to show a state-by-state breakdown of what could be expected, given a worst-case-scenario, from the most immediate effect - ashfall.

As far as I know, there are no qualitative predictions of what sort of amounts to expect at given areas, and certainly no predictions of expected times for the arrival of ejecta at those areas. So, in the most accurate way I could find without an actual computer simulation of the event, I used the Imperial College London's asteroid impact effects program (link) to model the ejecta/ashfall that would match all of those maps we've all seen of previous ashfall, and then plugged in different locations to see what the ejecta thickness and arrival times would be. The impact of an asteroid should closely resemble the eruption of a supervolcano (I actually thought about that for a while, and concluded that the two are, in fact, similar enough to compare in this way), so I think this should be an accurate representation.

Now, this fails to take wind and air currents (especially the jetstream) into account, so ejecta thickness should be less to the north/west and more to the south/east, while arrival times should be more to the north/west and less to the south/east. This should give the general idea, though.
In the event of an eruption at Yellowstone, people in the vicinity need the most information possible. And, given that once the supervolcano actually erupts there will be very little to no time to gather that information, it is wise to have it provided, to the best of our knowledge, beforehand.
It's my hope that, if any use is found for this at all, it will help people determine for themselves, beforehand, whether or not it would be safer to evacuate or stay in their homes, given, especially, the arrival times, when the ejecta should first begin to fall. Would you be able to get to relative safety before becoming burdened by the ashfall? Would it be better for you to stay in you home, or wherever you are, and wait it out? These are things that should be considered beforehand, and I hope this helps.

These are the results for ejecta/ashfall arrival times and final thickness for the given regions. Because the regions are general, the numbers given are estimates.
If a region does not appear on the list, it has little chance of being significantly effected by the ashfall. People in these regions are more likely to be dealing with cooling temperatures, failing crops, food shortages, poisoned water, wild and starving animals, and, perhaps worst of all, starving people. Just a heads-up.

reply to post by CLPrime


I was just thinking about Yellowstone about an hour ago. For I live in South Dakota on the south east side and have been questioning what my plan of action would be for me and my family.

Well, not trying to get first post, even if I do lol but yeah, the Ashfall of post-yellowstone-going-boom is gonna be very bad for the country. How long should we expect the ash to stay in the air? This is what I am expecting from Yellowstone as well once it goes BOOOOOM.

EDIT: I was close to the 1st post lol.

Originally posted by yesIAM
reply to post by Skate

 

Ic..Ic.. I got the first post without even trying

Lol, you beat me brah haha. I was close! Now that I didn't get 1st, I'm gonna go , brb

Here are a couple of maps of the ash fallout of the last couple of major eruptions of yellowstone.
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/cc9fa521d203.jpg[/atsimg]
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/93e59fcdba9b.jpg[/atsimg]

reply to post by yesIAM


I would suggest getting to Minnesota, if possible, but, then, it's a fluid situation, even when it's happening, and certainly hard to predict beforehand. But Minnesota seems like the best bet, if I were to bet at a time like that.

Hey CLPrime, do you think I will be fine if I'm in Atlanta/Florida at the time of a Yellowstone Eruption/Fall of the ashes?

reply to post by Skate


Georgia and Florida, being on the opposite coast, would probably get a negligible ashfall, as would my area, but there are all of those other effects I listed.
Now, if you could be on Jupiter when it happened, that would be ideal for getting away from Yellowstone...though, Jupiter has its own issues.

If it blows we are all ******d (I live in the UK), It's just a question of how quickly it happens.

Do you want to go really quickly in the pyroclastic cloud, go moderately quickly by suffocating from the ash cloud, or starve to death moderately slowly following the new nuclear winter which would last years, or lastly go through all the tribulations over a long period and then freeze to death due to the new iceage?

How much ash is required to cause fatalities?

Will it be like Pompeii?

Originally posted by CLPrime
With the potential for an eruption of the Yellowstone Supervolcano...

Yeah it makes sense to be prepared, after all It could happen anytime between 50,000 years ago and 50,000 years into the future.

reply to post by guessing


Any ash, really, is dangerous. Volcanic ash is made of tiny bits of rock and glass (melted rock), which are very sharp. These can very easily damage the airway, even in small amounts. At any location that may receive any ash at all from an eruption, some sort of filter/mask is very important.

Originally posted by AmatuerSkyWatcher
If it blows we are all ******d (I live in the UK), It's just a question of how quickly it happens.

Do you want to go really quickly in the pyroclastic cloud, go moderately quickly by suffocating from the ash cloud, or starve to death moderately slowly following the new nuclear winter which would last years, or lastly go through all the tribulations over a long period and then freeze to death due to the new iceage?

edit on 12-3-2011 by AmatuerSkyWatcher because: (no reason given)

I was hoping to get hit by a meteor or comet. Dam, ash clouds were not in my exit strategy

reply to post by FOXMULDER147


I never claimed it would happen any time soon. There's a difference between being scared and being prepared. I can't tell you that it will happen tomorrow, and you can't tell me it won't (though, given Yellowstone's currently stable state, it probably won't). It doesn't matter when it will occur...the fact that WILL occur at some point means people should be prepared. Why deny people that added safety?

reply to post by CLPrime


That puts things into a realistic perspective. Thanks. I hope it does not happen. I mean this.....

Originally posted by CLPrime
reply to post by Skate

 

Georgia and Florida, being on the opposite coast, would probably get a negligible ashfall, as would my area, but there are all of those other effects I listed.
Now, if you could be on Jupiter when it happened, that would be ideal for getting away from Yellowstone...though, Jupiter has its own issues.

LOL I have Jupiter on my locations because I was listening to a song where they said they were so high they were sitting on Mars so I went ahead and made my own joke saying I am so high that I'm on Jupiter I've got my shelter on Jupiter and it's working just fine with the harsh conditions

reply to post by CLPrime


Nope, come to Michigan. Surrounded by water, 1 border to set up a perimeter. Better get here early, we love to hunt the Whitetails early. There aren't any jobs, but who cares you'll be alive. For a while.

For the record, the ashfall for a place like New York would be about 5 mm (2 tenths of an inch), and would arrive in about 17 minutes. Note how fast the ash/ejecta travels...this is an indication of just what kind of force is behind the eruption.

And I know no one but me cares about this, but, where I am, it gives 3.36 mm (just over 1 tenth of an inch) and 19 minutes.

We were discussing this possibility in the office yesterday (with all of the activity caused with Japan we thought there might be a higher possibility of Yellowstone blowing up), and I was wondering if you could provide some details on some of the inputs to the program. What type of rock did you use for the meteor and of the target zone? what size and velocity would give the similar level of energy release?

I remember watching a Discovery channel movie on what could happen if Yellowstone did release. If I remember it right it stated the ash wouldn't start falling for an hour or two in the midwest. The downside was that it was much thicker and it fell for a long period of time. I'll see if I can find it online and post a link.

Should it blow it would be best to know your local fall out shelter positions in your city or be able to have your basement recirculate air via a strong filter. Even if you shelter in place (as in not go outside and turn off your heating/cooling unit) ash will still get inside, and cause difficulty to breathe. Read up on the Dust Bowl for examples of this. Even brand new buildings which were fully sealed (at the level the period allowed) had dust get in.

It also wouldn't hurt to have either some N95 dust masks and safety goggles or full blown gas masks handy if you have to go outside.

My question is: How do you adapt a vehicle to drive in such an environment? The engine would likely take heavy damage from all of the pulverized pumice within the cylinders. Eventually it will also clog the air filter, making it hard for the engine to get air.