What's Going On At Lake Toba?

We had talked about starting a thread for this Sleeping monster last night in another thread .
lets start her off right shall we .
with a history of her past eruptions and try to find a pattern to see if she ll blow in our lifetimes .

en.wikipedia.org...

Volcanic winter and cooling The apparent coincidence of the eruption with the onset of the last glacial period attracted the scientists' interest. Michael L. Rampino and Stephen Self argued that the eruption caused a "brief, dramatic cooling or 'volcanic winter'", which resulted in a global mean surface temperature drop of 3–5°C and accelerated the glacial transition from warm to cold temperatures of the last glacial cycle.[11] Zielinski showed Greenland ice core evidence for a 1,000-year cool period with low δ18O and increased dust deposition immediately following the eruption. He further suggested that this 1,000-year cool period (stadial) could have been caused by the eruption, and that the longevity of the Toba stratospheric loading may account at least for the first two centuries of the cooling episode.[12] Rampino and Self believe that global cooling was already underway at the time of the eruption, but the procedure was extremely slow; YTT "may have provided the extra 'kick' that caused the climate system to switch from warm to cold states."[13] Oppenheimer discounts the arguments that the eruption triggered the last glaciation,[14] but he accepts that it may have been responsible for a millennium of cool climate prior to the Dansgaard-Oeschger event 19.[15] According to Alan Robock,[16] the Toba incident did not initiate an ice age. Using an emission of 6,000 million tons of sulfur dioxide, his simulations demonstrated a maximum global cooling of around 15 °C, approximately 3 years after the eruption. As the saturated adiabatic lapse rate is 4.9 °C/ 1,000 m for temperatures above freezing,[17] this means that the tree line and the snow line were around 3,000 m (9,000 ft) lower at this time. Nevertheless, the climate recovered over a few decades. Robock found no evidence that the 1,000-year cold period seen in Greenland ice core records was directly generated by the Toba eruption. Nevertheless, he argues that the volcanic winter would have been colder and longer-lasting than Ambrose assumed, which strengthens his argument for a genetic bottleneck. Contrary to Robock, Oppenheimer believes that estimates of a surface temperature drop of 3–5°C after the eruption are probably too high; a figure closer to 1°C appears more realistic.[18] Robock criticized Oppenheimer's analysis, arguing that it is based on simplistic T-forcing relationships.[19] Despite the different approaches and estimates, scientists agree that a supereruption like the one at Lake Toba must have led to very extensive ash-fall layers and injection of noxious gases into the atmosphere, having severe worldwide effects on climate and weather.[20] Additionally, the Greenland ice core data display an abrupt climate change around this time,[21] but there is no consensus that the eruption directly generated the 1,000-year cold period seen in Greenland or triggered the last glaciation.

i for one dont agree with this , because none of the current scientists were there when she last erupted and to this day their are still finding new evidence about tobas last eruption all over the globe . as far north as the north pole .

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/1e00476b5e51.jpg[/atsimg]

stat pic of lake Toba
its time to continue to pick our brains and see if theres any truth to this and if its false then we can thank god
www.indonesialogue.com...
yes i know this is 3 years old still looking for something more recent .

Toba in Sumatra a candidate for super volcano in 2012 The devastating Tusnami was precursor to what is coming in 2012. Toba in Sumatra can explode 100 times more violently than what happened 74,000 years back. The last super-volcano to erupt was Toba 74,000 years ago in Sumatra. Ten thousand times bigger than Mt St Helens, it created a global catastrophe dramatically affecting life on Earth. Scientists now find through extrapolation cycle study that the 74,000 years back super volcano in Toba, Sumatra was the warm up for what may be coming in 2012. Around Toba, increasing harmonic tremors have started after the Tsunami two years back.

personally i dont believe it but then again with a volcano of Tobas size there could very well be tremors years in advance .




hisz.rsoe.hu...
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Latest seismic activity
Date Time Magnitude Depth Details
2010-06-01 15:58:11 4.8 13 Km Read
2010-04-09 06:29:37 4.5 20 Km Read
2010-04-03 14:50:01 4.8 134 Km Read
2010-04-03 14:50:02 5.1 125 Km Read
2010-02-28 12:13:27 5.0 50 Km Read




Mod Edit: External Source Tags Instructions – Please Review This Link.

Thanks for a timely reminder....Toba is awakening, can winter be far behind?
An eruption here would change the entire world civilisation....
Much like yellowstone only bigger hey? yeesh!

reply to post by alysha.angel


I wish we could throw massive sleeping pills into the volcanoes...... I am suddenly thankful for the emergency prepardness posts from ATS. Im going to read through some.If there is a planetary winter from a volcano , how many years of food storage would we need? Wouldn't we be unable to grow anything untill the sun is able to shine through again? How long could that be? How long is a volcanic winter ?
And now an interview by Dr Bill Deagle saying That sunspot 1117 is to produce an m or x class flare between the 8-11 of this November, Maybe I will give up and just not think about it.....

reply to post by alysha.angel


Well in the light of the videos that TA found I would have to agree that Wikipedia would seem to have got it wrong. That really hardly surprises me as it is an ardently warmist site and will not publish anything that could remotely be used against the Gospel of Warmism.

reply to post by PuterMan


lol PM, second time you've mentioned these videos, and I'm not sure which ones you're talking about? How about a link?

You talking about these?
www.abovetopsecret.com...

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
reply to post by PuterMan

 

lol PM, second time you've mentioned these videos, and I'm not sure which ones you're talking about? How about a link?

You talking about these?
www.abovetopsecret.com...

yep those are the ones .
i was going to use em for this thread but changed my mind . first saw those last summer

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
reply to post by PuterMan

 

lol PM, second time you've mentioned these videos, and I'm not sure which ones you're talking about? How about a link?

You talking about these?
www.abovetopsecret.com...

Yup that is them.

I have joined tham all back into one. Maked for better viewing!

www.absoluteastronomy.com...

Geology The Toba caldera Caldera A caldera is a cauldron-like volcanic feature usually formed by the collapse of land following a volcanic eruption such as the ones at Yellowstone National Park in the US and Glen Coe in Scotland. They are sometimes confused with volcanic craters. The word comes from Spanish caldera, and this from... complex in Northern Sumatra, Indonesia consists of four overlapping volcanic craters that adjoin the Sumatran "volcanic front". The youngest and fourth caldera is the world's largest Quaternary caldera (100 by 30 kilometre Kilometre The kilometre , symbol km is a unit of length in the metric system, equal to one thousand metres and is therefore exactly equal to the distance travelled by light in free space in of a second... s) and intersects the three older calderas. An estimate of 2,800 km³ of dense-rock equivalent Dense-rock equivalent Dense-rock equivalent is a volcanologic calculation used to estimate volcanic eruption volume. One of the widely accepted measures of the size of a historic or prehistoric eruption is the volume of magma ejected as pumice and volcanic ash, known as tephra during an explosive phase of the eruption,... pyroclastic material, known the Youngest Toba tuff, was blasted from the youngest caldera during one of the largest single explosive volcanic eruptions in geologic history. Following the "Youngest Toba tuff eruption", a typical resurgent dome formed within the new caldera, joining two half-domes separated by a longitudinal graben Graben In geology, a graben is a depressed block of land bordered by parallel faults. Graben is German for ditch. Graben is used for both the singular and plural.... . There are at least four cones, four stratovolcano Stratovolcano A stratovolcano, sometimes called a composite volcano, is a tall, conical volcano built up by many layers of hardened lava, tephra, pumice, and volcanic ash. Unlike shield volcanoes, stratovolcanoes are characterized by a steep profile and periodic, explosive eruptions... es and three craters visible in the lake. The Tandukbenua cone on the NW edge of the caldera is relatively lacking in vegetation, suggesting a young age of only several hundred years. Also, the Pusubukit volcano on the south edge of the caldera is solfatarically active.

very informative i think

another good link on Toba
sites.google.com...

heres a good link and a pic of the team who is currently monitoring lake toba .


www.gfz-potsdam.de...;jsessionid=247000B706FE5B982FB784F7F8 28A6CF

Targets & Aims * Determination of crustal velocity structure around Lake Toba (incl. Sumatra Fault) and possibly between Nias Island and the coast using British air-gun sources (Pg and Pn phases). This will be the northern extension of the British study area * Using local volcano-related events to study Lake Toba caldera + its relation to Sumatra Fault * Supplying recordings of regional and teleseismic events recorded in our network to British partners for joint interpretatio * Pre-study for potential future (on-land) controlled source study of Lake Toba and Sumatra Fault, the large on-land fault near Lake Toba * Pre-study for potential future volcano-seismic study on Lake Toba Methods * wide-angle seismic interpretation, controlled source seismic tomography * localisation of volcano-related earthquakes

OMG....straight on the top..... will it be active??

event has been reviewed by a seismologist.
Magnitude 5.4
Date-Time Wednesday, December 01, 2010 at 00:50:21 UTC
Wednesday, December 01, 2010 at 07:50:21 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 2.622°N, 99.040°E
Depth 160.7 km (99.9 miles)
Region NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
Distances 35 km (25 miles) S of Pematangsiantar, Sumatra, Indonesia
95 km (55 miles) WSW of Tanjungbalai, Sumatra, Indonesia
300 km (185 miles) WSW of KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia
1305 km (810 miles) NW of JAKARTA, Java, Indonesia

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 8.7 km (5.4 miles); depth +/- 10 km (6.2 miles)
Parameters NST= 58, Nph= 76, Dmin=15.6 km, Rmss=1.11 sec, Gp= 72°,
M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=5
Source USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)


Event ID usc0000hsm

This was just kinked on the Yellowstone thread

www.indiadaily.com...

Sounds like a bit of overdone hype to me in that it is presented in somewhat sensationalist terms. I am not convinced of the content and of course you have to believe in subduction for any of it to be true, and subduction is theoretical and not yet proven.

reply to post by PuterMan


first of all how would they know ,
2nd where is this so called deadly volcano located?

my guess would be under the oecan between these two plates or a wee bit above them

Some really good pictures of Toba here and an interesting article about hydro-electric power production at Toba that is dedicated to an Aluminium smelting plant.

The Asahan Project (PDF)

Iv read that there have been a few minor quakes at lake toba and i remember my toba thread so please can we keep this thread bumped for any happenings at toba ..'
thanks ..

earthquake.usgs.gov...

MAG UTC DATE-TIME y/m/d h:m:s LAT deg LON deg DEPTH km Region MAP 4.9 2011/06/18 11:57:59 1.843 99.108 12.8 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA MAP 5.6 2011/06/14 03:01:29 1.830 99.127 22.0 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA MAP 5.3 2011/06/14 00:08:33 1.826 99.082 22.6 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA

earthquake.usgs.gov...


a mag 6.6 quake just hit right up lake tobas butt lets hope it doesnt tigger anything we dont want .

MAP 6.6 2011/09/05 17:55:14 2.973 97.997 110.1 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA

will keep you all posted since im home again ..

here is an interesting artical saying toba is just DORMENT .

www.ibtimes.co.uk...


i hope not... shes a monster .