Aral Sea is going dry and will cause major geopolitical disaster!

Aral Sea is going dry and will cause a major geopolitical disaster! The huge area in central Asia will become a desert and 40 million people will be displaced!

Not just because of the Sea's going dry but because of overall climate change in the area.

The Aral Sea North of Afghanistan, formerly the largest inland body of water is now 95% gone, dried up. Forget that efforts to save the lake have been somewhat successful, in fact the lake is nearly dry.

The lake is an inland body with no outlet. So all the agricultural fertilizers, pesticides and chemicals extensively used in cotton production upriver are now on the lake bottom. Dust storms carry the salts and pollution over the countryside.

Because the lake has gone dry the surrounding area is more arid and hotter so crops need increasingly larger amounts for irrigation. Increased irrigation draws larger amounts of water from the 2 rivers supplying the Aral Sea to the north and the south.

But the biggest problem is what will happen 15 years or so in the future. The glaciers in the Pamir Mountains to the east are melting due to increased temperatures and arid conditions. The glaciers are the source of the rivers so when they are gone the entire region will be without a water supply.

40 million people live in the area and will be forced to relocate. The options for relocation are 3 directions. South to Afghanistan, which is not an option. East to the Chinese desert area is not an option. Or north to Russia's Kazakhstan which is possible but presently Russia is completely unable to absorb 40 million people.

So Russia has a major geopolitical crisis on its hands coming up in the next decade or 2.

What caused this crisis to begin with?

Russian engineers designed and constructed major dams and irrigation projects on the 2 rivers supplying the Aral Sea providing the rich agricultural areas upstream with much needed water for cotton and other crops. Water was drawn off to provide for agricultural and the Aral Sea dried up.

Man,why are you posting this?

Don't you know there is oil leaking out of the ground in the gulf of Mexico?

You act like this Russian made ecological disaster is of any importance to the new members of ATS.

Heck the Amazon rain forest is rapidly disappearing and it is our primary source of oxygen,for the whole world.

But that and all that toxins the "good" Russians just left when they failed is killing the planet worse than a natural resource leaking out of the ground.

If it ain't happening in the U.S. and is not on the fear mongering news channels,it ain't important.

Thanks for reminding us!

I have to laugh when people come on ATS saying that they are tired of all the doom and gloom threads. They don't provide any good news, because there isn't any. You might as well stay where you are, because it's quickly becoming clear that no place is disaster-proof.

Great. Ecological disaster abounds.

Add another looming crisis to the list.

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I find it interesting that as the northern lake/sea is shrinking into the shape of a Pterosaur or similar winged dinosaur. Very symbolic...




[edit on 17-6-2010 by star in a jar]

[edit on 17-6-2010 by star in a jar]

Originally posted by Oneolddude
Man,why are you posting this?

Don't you know there is oil leaking out of the ground in the gulf of Mexico?

You act like this Russian made ecological disaster is of any importance to the new members of ATS.

Heck the Amazon rain forest is rapidly disappearing and it is our primary source of oxygen,for the whole world.

But that and all that toxins the "good" Russians just left when they failed is killing the planet worse than a natural resource leaking out of the ground.

If it ain't happening in the U.S. and is not on the fear mongering news channels,it ain't important.

Thanks for reminding us!

Anything that affects the earth and its' inhabitants is of utmost importance to the U.S. and new members. Don't be rude.

Originally posted by Oneolddude
Man,why are you posting this?

Don't you know there is oil leaking out of the ground in the gulf of Mexico?

You act like this Russian made ecological disaster is of any importance to the new members of ATS.

Heck the Amazon rain forest is rapidly disappearing and it is our primary source of oxygen,for the whole world.

But that and all that toxins the "good" Russians just left when they failed is killing the planet worse than a natural resource leaking out of the ground.

If it ain't happening in the U.S. and is not on the fear mongering news channels,it ain't important.

Thanks for reminding us!

You sir are an idiot no offense. I hate people looking for a way to bash America. I can understand it when it is warranted but in a thread like this?


I think it is huge this lake is in trouble I have been following it for awhile and guess what I am a American. It is a shame what the farmers have done and in the end it will be the end of farming in that region.

[edit on 17-6-2010 by Subjective Truth]

reply to post by LadySkadi

Great. Ecological disaster abounds. Add another looming crisis to the list.

Another indeed! But this one has been looming for a while. The only thing new is the Pamir Mountains glacier melting aspect. When the river source is gone, well, human displacement is inevitable. It will be a gradual process, but the impact to Russia will be major!

I have always said that Russia has a gloomy economic, social and political future due to its decreasing demography, ie. the Russians are not replacing their dieing elders.

So if you could call this a positive, this is certainly a source of millions of immigrants to Russia!

The question is, will Russia be in a position to accept these immigrants with the jobs and resources to support them?

The implication is that they will not so stay tuned!

reply to post by star in a jar


Thanks for the visuals!

Only thing missing are the new dams dividing the lake into three sections, the north is the most successful in refilling. It now is 3 or 4 feet average in depth and supports many reintroduced species of fish.

This is all good but still the lake/ sea is 95% dry which is the reason for the major effect on regional climate.

reply to post by plumranch

Only thing missing are the new dams dividing the lake into three sections, the north is the most successful in refilling. It now is 3 or 4 feet average in depth and supports many reintroduced species of fish.

If they can manage that area only it could save their community, it looks like one of the deeper areas most definitely.

Ahh yeah!

I remember this being discussed back in the 80s as a then future "potential" environmental disaster. The Soviets were trying to create a workers paradise. When this was reported in the western media, The Soviets laughed and said it was "American Imperialistic Propaganda" Well the time has come and it is a major disaster. Yeah ok so now the Soviets are now gone and evidently so is the lake.


Nothing to see here Just "American Imperialistic Propaganda" move along.

reply to post by SLAYER69

I remember this being discussed back in the 80s as a then future "potential" environmental disaster. The Soviets were trying to create a workers paradise. When this was reported in the western media, The Soviets laughed and said it was "American Imperialistic Propaganda" Well the time has come and it is a major disaster. Yeah ok so now the Soviets are now gone and evidently so is the lake.

Tks, Slay!

This certainly is an impending disaster of epic proportions! I'm posting this to simply bring it back on the geopolitical radar. Regionally this will have incredible implications in the not too distant future.

This comes under the classification of lessons learned or how could this have not been foreseen, but there are ongoing projects of similar nature over in China:

China builds world's highest dam, India fears water theft

reply to post by Oneolddude


Wow so you don't care about other places on Earth? Anything like this that happens and affects people and their entire area IS important. I never heard about this and I am glad the OP posted it. It's a nice break from the millions of BP threads popping up.

Look into Lake Chad. Can't blame the ruskie's on that one.

Like SLAYER69, I too remember this from the 80's. Long before Al Gore and global warming. This was during the global cooling craze going on at that time.

I always liked the pics of the stranded boats in the desert theme you can find with the Aral Sea.

You're being far to politically correct in the root cause of the Aral Sea drying up. It goes back to Khrushchev decision in trying to imitate American agriculture that he saw on his visit to the USA. His complete lack of knowledge in any agricultural or engineering science along with his ability of not listening to people who do know about these things, caused this disaster.

Khrushchev was nothing more than a Stalin hack. Big projects, screw the environment, doesn't matter if people are killed, resettled, or anything else involving people. Just get the project done.

I will give him credit for just one thing. He was a legitimate WW2 hero who was involved in some historic battles. This does not alleviate him of this disaster though. This is his legacy...

Originally posted by hinky
You're being far to politically correct in the root cause of the Aral Sea drying up. It goes back to Khrushchev decision in trying to imitate American agriculture that he saw on his visit to the USA. His complete lack of knowledge in any agricultural or engineering science along with his ability of not listening to people who do know about these things, caused this disaster.

In all fairness...

Krushchev didn't have a clue. He was from the Soviets version of the "Good old boy Communist Soviet system". They were not educated in the ways of business and commerce. When he came for that visit, the US was still at the height of Global industrial supremacy. Japan was just awakening and had not yet taken it's place in the world as a high technology leader. Germany was still somewhat slightly shell shocked from WWII and was dealing with being split in two.

The EU was not around, South Korea was manufacturing Trinkets and China was still a backwards Maoist Nightmare. At this period in US history we were polluting ourselves on a massive scale. I'm sure when he visited the US he didn't see any of the down side. Anybody remember these commercials? The back ground images of industrial pollution is not a fake Hollywood studio creation.




What the west [Especially the US ] have been able to do over the past couple of decades was to EXPORT it's industrial pollution to other countries. For example China was more than willing to accept it.

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[edit on 17-6-2010 by SLAYER69]

Originally posted by SLAYER69
What the west [Especially the US ] have been able to do over the past couple of decades was to EXPORT it's industrial pollution to other countries. For example China was more than willing to accept it.

We didn't export our pollution because we wouldn't be creating so much of it in the first place, even keeping all manufacturing there. I have more trust in the US legal system and environment protection (even though they admittedly suck) when compared to their Chinese counterpart. China pollutes because growth for them is more important that remote consequences, just like for Khruschev.

reply to post by hinky

Look into Lake Chad. Can't blame the ruskie's on that one.

Thanks hink!

Good point, for those interested here is a discussion of Lake Chad/ African Agricuture. There are many similarities to the Aral Sea including the prediction that 30 million people would be displaced if Lake Chad dries up.

Lake Chad at least has the possibility of diverting one of the Congo River tributaries into the lake. That possibility is being considered.

I haven't heard of similar possibilities with the Aral Sea??