Did we survive the storm

Hi all,

So, there's lots of news stories out there proclaiming that the GFC is over. What do you all make of this.

I'm not an economic expert, so I wanted to ask the people that are.

Have we escaped the worst of it? Is this just a jump before another crash? Or will this slight up and down be going on for years to come?

I know it's not an easy question to answer. Just wanted to get some opinions. The doom and gloom threads have been going on of late, but they seem to be totally seperated from the wider discussion.

Cheers,

DB

With at least one in ten people still out of work, I don't see how it could be over. If people don't have jobs, then they don't go out to eat, buy new cars, or go on vacation. Economies all over the world suffer because of this.

reply to post by LiquidLight


For sure, but it doesn't seem to be affecting the wider economy as yet. Not in Australia anyway. Seems like there is a lot of doom and gloom talk, but everything still seems like it's chugging along.

Detroit has a jobless percent of 17%.

Can you imagine 1 out of 5 people out of work?

Unless that changes, who the F^$& cares if wall street goes up.

No, we are not even close to seeing the end of the pain.

First of all, several waves of consumer and homeowner defaults will hit in the coming months as rates reset. All those folks who bought McMansions a few years ago with low interest rates are in for an ugly suprise as they realize the fine print of their contracts specifices higher interest rates, and the fact of the matter is that most can't afford it. They thought three years ago that "when the trime came I'll be a success so I can afford it" (if they thought anything at all, that is.) Instead most are lucky if they have any kind of work at all.

Secondly, it looks like the world is trying to rush for the exit on the US dollar and bonds ("bonds" are a polite way of saying "debt"). The following image speaks for itself:

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/b80a2a8743df.jpg[/atsimg]


This trend, plus ambitious govt spending plans (everything from servicing interest on already massive outstanding debt to making new healthcare plans to ambitious infrastructue "stimulus" to bailouts for the "too big to fail" crowd) spells total disaster unless they ratchet up the interest rates. But with companies, individuals, and the govt itself so hooked on debt, higher interest rates are a death sentence and could lead to an unprecidented wave of defaults.

Thirdly, a 3-trillion-dollar wave of commercial real estate defaults is about to hit the US later this summer, and to be echoed in Europe and elsewhere. None of this is "recovery" news.

The pain is really just beginning.

Come to Pittsburgh, I'm looking out my window now at one of the top ten malls failing and ready to close. It looks like its been bombed already. We're also going to hide our jobless rates by opening casinos. This is what is called the "eye" of the storm. Their are no jobs and here its even worse.

reply to post by dingleberry77


You guys (Aussies) got out of this one well actually compared to the rest of th e world.

Its still "running" the average citizen now is just not driving a 300z anymore, and had to give up a few things that they really could not afford in the first place..

Looks like it is turning though and the market is giving us clues (forward looking instrument)

Good luck on finding your answer, everyone has an opinion my friend.

Ya, I've asked myself this too. I look at stocks, but that doesn't speak for those who don't have an income. The U.S. got out of the Great Depression, because of World War Two. I wonder if there's a third coming our way.

reply to post by silent thunder


Where did you get that graph?

The truth is we are selling our debt at a measly 4%

That doesn't show anything but an appetite for our debt.

When we have trouble selling t-bonds at around 8% then we have problems.

i would have figured more people to think of the economy collapsing would be a good thing...time for renewal....no?

Originally posted by soldier8828
i would have figured more people to think of the economy collapsing would be a good thing...time for renewal....no?

In order to effect any sort of meaningful "renewal," the entire system must be so leveled that there is simply no way back.

By way of illustration:

1) Japan after WWII: Almost everything of value destroyed by wave after wave of B-52 bombing (not to mention the nuclear weapons), top leadership all dead, suicided, or imprisoned, occupying force with total control, most cities resembling moonscapes, etc. This was followed, after a few tough decades, by a phoenix-like renaissance of feverish re-building and re-creation of new industries and institutions. Result: Decade after decade of high growth, culminating in the late-80s "bubble economy" where the grounds of the Imperial Palace alone were worth more than all the real estate in California or Canada.

2) Japan after burst of late-80s bubble: There were a number of high-profile losers, then the central bank and government just kind of slapped bandaids on here and there and propped up crutches where necessary...the result was two "lost decades" of lurching, near-defunct financial and real-estate levels, growth consistantly hovering around the zero-percent range, interest rates ultra low but no movement to borrow ("pushing on a string," they called it), and a slow, gentle rot from inside. Not hell, but not exactly heaven, either.

You want real "renewal," that means everything has to be burned to the ground. We aren't near that point and maybe never will be. I think scenario #2 (gentle rot and lurching, slow, groaning decline) is more the order of the day.

[edit on 7/30/09 by silent thunder]

reply to post by GreenBicMan


Hey mate,

Yeah, I understand there's heaps of opinions. It's hard to get a grip on things if you're not in the know.

I know we've also come through it all with not much damage.

If it's going to go pear shaped will it happen fast?

reply to post by dingleberry77


explain pear-shaped?

or what you are trying to say, could be a slight difference in our slang

There is no crisis in the economy. The economy IS the crisis.

The more you try to hang on to it, the more turbulent the ride will be.
I guess some people like the adrenaline.

reply to post by GreenBicMan


As in the s#@t hitting the fan.

Sorry, our slang gets in the way sometimes.

reply to post by dingleberry77


As if the "s" didnt hit the fan already?

IMO we are far past that, and of course 99% of this board will disagree, but that is my opinion based on a million things, most of what I have outlined in the market thread.

But now people are talking about positive GDP for USA by end of year (which I said earlier this year and people were about to slice my throat for it) which is the opposite of tanking again..

Again, millions of opinions right? Is mine right? Impossible to tell, just like anyone else's no matter what they say. We live in too random of an environment.

I think statistically I am right as we have gotten out of every major recession in history 17/17 I believe are the stats.

GL on your search.

Originally posted by Soulhacking
Come to Pittsburgh, I'm looking out my window now at one of the top ten malls failing and ready to close. It looks like its been bombed already. We're also going to hide our jobless rates by opening casinos. This is what is called the "eye" of the storm. Their are no jobs and here its even worse.

would you mind taking a picture of that and posting it? It's not that I dont believe you its because I send stuff like that to a coworker of mine that thinks all is well

reply to post by dingleberry77


I am no expert but here is my take on it. In 2010 over 500,000 people in America that have been drawing unemployment will run out of benefits. There are still no new jobs so many people are competing for the same ones. In 2010 when benefits run out and we cannot find jobs how are we going to pay our house payments, rent, electric bill, insurance or taxes? We won't, causing a domino affect of more homes lost, even less dinning out, even less consumer spending, even less tax dollars generated. Thus more jobs will be lost more businesses will go bankrupt, more states will go broke. This will continue to cycle until the entire economy collapses world wide. People will become desperate and looting, riots will break out. The only thing that is going to stop this downward spiral is to create jobs and create them fast. I am not a dommer or a gloomer but it is simple logic. The stockmarket is seeing a jump because the goverment just pumped Trillions of dollars into a select group of peoples ahnds. But look Trillions of dollars was pumped in to the system yet we only see a slight recovery? And those trillions were barrowed, it was just printed paper with no tangible backing. America has to borrow millions of dollars each day just to keep up our current way of life. I just do not see this slight increase as a sign saying "We made it, it's over".

reply to post by Melissa101


My only qualm with what you are saying is you are viewing this in "lagging terms" (unemployment) when the market is a leading indicator.

Yes, I know we need jobs, they will pick up, but they lag the market 6-18 months..

Everything is set up right now to be "less bad" and less bad is the new good -

Think of it like an upside down U

Starting from the left we tanked now we are probably right on the bottom right corner of the U ready to come up..

**Ideally I wouldnt use a "U" as my base theory here, but imagine a curve and slope**

Another idea would be to use a clock.. we are probably around 7:30 IMO

**again all these are my opinions of course** and I welcome others.


EDIT::

Also, we have been borrowing like this forever now. Remember, we sell bonds on the expectation of getting paid back with interest, and the USA has never missed a payment. We use bonds to finance our growth.. ours are also the most sought after in the world btw.

[edit on 31-7-2009 by GreenBicMan]

reply to post by dingleberry77


There is not a single shred of evidence to suggest we are "done"...

ALL of the evidence suggest that the rate of decline has eased, and is at present in line with normal recessionary declines by historical standards

This is compared to last fall into 2009 where we saw declines in line with that of collapse and or depression.

Please note that all "good" news is actually "bad news" .. it's just "better than expected"

However.. A decline is still a decline.

Unemployment IS a lagging indicator to the end of recessions, though of course if NOTHING is indicating the recession has ended, as GDP is still negative, industrial output is still contracting, home sales still negative, new financing still negative, consumer confidence still dropping..

Basically, we MAY have averted total collapse.. but we are still in a deflating economy.

The stock market at present is so manipulated and inflated with funds from "big banks" that it is very detached from the "Real Economy". The Real Economy is in a Depression, while the Market is rebounding.

An increase in the stock markets doesn't mean that 20% unemployment will now reverse, or that industrial output will increase, or that our GDP will register growth. The ONLY thing an increase in the stock market indicates anymore is that... the market has increased. That's it.

Ultimately, unless we see true turn arounds in the the Real Economy, the markets in all likelihood will see another contraction, as will the economy as a whole..