Pakistani Government to collapse?

I am posting this thread because I feel that with everything that I have been seeing and reading over the last several weeks about the situation in Pakistan that soon the Taliban/al-Qaeda alliance will soon topple the government of Pakistan and take over that country. It will not just happen because of the fact that the Taliban/al-Qaeda alliance has been taking over ever larger parts of Pakistan, but because there are some elements within Pakistan itself, especially within it's military and Intelligence Service, the ISI, who would gladly welcome such a change in Pakistan. If that were to happen and the Taliban/al-Qaeda were to take over Pakistan, then they would have the one weapon within their grasp that they, al-Qaeda, have been actively trying to get over the last several years, tactical nuclear devices, which they would try to use in one form or another against the United States and/or one or more of it's allies. This would also, I believe, add even more of a strain on the already bad relations between Pakistan and India, especially in light of what happened at Mumbai. The situation would severely spiral out of control and lead to a widening of the fighting against the terrorists and their allies around the world. I would like to hear from others on what they think might happen with the situation in Pakistan, even if they don't agree with what I think might happen. I'm always interested in hearing other points of view and discussing them rationally.

If they are able to topple the government in Pakistan expect serious US/UK involvement in fighting the Taliban. Also expect the worlds second largest Army India to invade Pakistan and secure nuke sites as well.

So, yes, we’ve been seeing the moderately paced fall of Pakistan to the Taliban…it seems relatively certain, at this point and time, that without outside intervention, their government is going to completely collapse…and this will more than likely be catastrphic...

I ask this question…? Should we “back up” the Pakistani Government? What are the political ramifications of this situation on America, and President Obama?

How will each situation pan out?

We Help:
If we help Pakistan out and send troops in, I foresee Obama being attacked for doing so…

“Our troops are already spread too thin, “they’ll cry out.
“We cannot afford another war; the economy will not sustain it.”
“Our troops need to come home.”
“We shouldn’t be acting as the police of the world.”

And whether we help the situation or not, Americans will not be happy with this move, because we are tired of war…tired of fighting other people’s fights…tired of fighting against this amorphous thing called “the War on Terror.”

We Do Not Help:
If we do not help Pakistan, do not give them military aid, I foresee Obama being attacked for not doing so…

“They are our allies, we must help them,” they will cry out.
“We cannot afford for the terrorists to control Pakistan; it means we have failed in this ‘War on Terror”
“It only proves that the Democrats are weak when it comes to defending America and American interests,” they will say.
“If no one else is going to step in to save the world from terror, the United States must act unilaterally,” we will hear.

And whether or not the Pakistani government remains in control of the country, it will be a mark against the Administration, for not being there when they were needed by an ally…

So, what is the correct decision for the president to make this time around? I ask to the Right and I ask to the Left…

My bet is, whatever decision is made, its not going to be “the Right’s” one…even if it is the same decision they would have made, had they been in power.

While I myself see that we must at least try to help the Pakistani government, we (the U.S. and our Allies) must go on the assumption that the Pakistani Government will fall and be ready now to start planning for that possibility to happen and start placing some of those resources that we would have placed inside Pakistani to other areas where they would not only be better suited for operations, but where these units would not be battered before we are ready to use them.

the thing i cant get my head around is, the taliban, are they not like small in comparison to that of a countries army ( Pakistan ) surely to god a small army can sort this out ? i am also aware that the pakistani military consists on 2 sets of people ( region or religion ) please correct me if i am wrong, of which the taliban are part of.
i think if they do oust the goverment all hell will be let loose and it will be a rece to the nukes.
i for one hope its all sorte quickly

please correct me if im wrong, my small knowledge comes from a cnn report the other day and wasnt totaly fixed to it due to a crying baby on my knee

So here's a question to anyone willing to answer:

Why should America look to get involved in this NOW, when, over the passed two years we have watched martial law, political assasinations, stolen elections, etc in Pakistan?

If America really wanted to prevent the downfall of Pakistan, they needed to step in when Musharraf hijacked that country, and when Bhutto was assasinated.


What we are talking about now is far too little, far too late.

reply to post by cautiouslypessimistic


Very good point...but equally so, if nothing is done, and the Taliban does acquire control of the Nuclear Weapons...and some should, somehow, wind up in the hands of al Qaeda..and should, somehow, be used against America or any of our Allies....

...then once again we'll be in a situation where people will be saying "why wasn't anything done about this?!?"

...that's the trouble with being the "leader of the free world"...often times one is stuck in lose-lose situations.

I just wish the UN did what it is supposed to do...but if it could/did, once again, that would also creates a lose-lose situation for America...right?

So much could have been done years ago to mitigate the dangers of this crisis....but...alas..

I had heard just a bit, but there was a segment on cnn a few weeks ago in which they were discussing the nuclear weapons in Pakistan and what would happen if/when the Taliban gains controls. I had heard them say that "the weapons were in a safe location and were in no danger". Did anyone happen to see where abouts these weapons are? I know they will not release the exact location for security reasons, but I was thinking perhaps they were shipped to an ally? Or what perhaps they were disassembled and the pieces sent to different locations? I really want to know what "safe" means.

Safe, in this case, means a secure facility with troops/security that is (supposedly) loyal to the direct chain of command. If Pakistan was like most Western Democracies, or even like most Dictatorships or Authoritarian regimes, I'd say that that would mean that they are pretty secure. In Pakistan's case, that doesn't mean much, if anything at all, as it is a known fact that a lot of people in the Pakistani Military, especially the higher ups, and most of the ISI, Pakistan's intelligence agency, were are in favor of the Taliban/al-Qaeda alliance, and were instrumental in helping to set both up. So I think it would be safe to say that maybe they are hedging their bets and maybe fudging the issues to hide support they have for the Taliban/al-Qaeda, while doing everything in their power behind the scenes to throw their support to them.