Predicting 2010 unemployment U-3 of 18%, U-6 at 34%

Based on Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers for U-3 seasonally adjusted unemployment with an official number for February '09 at 8.1%, calculations based on rate of change over the last 6 months project 10% national unemployment summer '09, and 15% summer '10.

Based on Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers for U-6 seasonally adjusted unemployment with an official number for February '09 at 14.8%, calculations based on rate of change over the last 6 months project 18.2% national unemployment summer '09, and 34.3% summer '10.

Historical numbers and rates of increases are:
Month ------------U-3 unemployment rate---Change
September 2008 6.2
October 2008 6.6 6.06%
November 2008 6.8 2.94%
December 2008 7.2 5.56%
January 2009 7.6 5.26%
February 2009 8.1 6.17%
Average rate of change = 5.2%

Projected forward at 5.2% increase of unemployment:
Month ------------U-3 unemployment rate
March 2009 8.52
April 2009 8.96
May 2009 9.43
June 2009 9.92
July 2009 10.44
August 2009 10.98
September 2009 11.55
October 2009 12.15
November 2009 12.78
December 2009 13.45

January 2010 14.15
February 2010 14.88
March 2010 15.66
April 2010 16.47
May 2010 17.33
June 2010 18.23

U-3 is Bureau of Labor statistics reported number for (Seasonal) Unemployment Rate.

Now U-6 numbers look bleaker. (U-6 = (seasonal) "Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of all civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers)"

Official U-6 numbers for October 2008-February 2009:
Month ------------U-6 unemployment rate---Change
October 2008 12.0 6.67
November 2008 12.6 4.76
December 2008 13.5 6.67
January 2009 13.9 2.88
February 2009 14.8 6.08
Average rate of change = 5.41%

The official February U-6 number of 14.8% projected forward at a 5.41% rate of change:
Month ------------U-6 unemployment rate
March 2009 15.6
April 2009 16.4
May 2009 17.3
June 2009 18.2
July 2009 19.2
August 2009 20.3
September 2009 21.4
October 2009 22.5
November 2009 23.7
December 2009 25.0

January 2010 26.4
February 2010 27.8
March 2010 29.3
April 2010 30.9
May 2010 32.6
June 2010 34.3

Reference: Bureau of Labor statistics - www.bls.gov...

______________________________________________

Beware: A hot summer, high unemployment, and a few riots may occur. Last riots I was well aware of were the '92 L.A. Riots:







[edit on 8-3-2009 by Dbriefed]

Ouch...watch 'em run for the hills!!!

I was looking at the seasonally adjusted job losses (the BLS data goes back to '67), and the only one-month jump that was larger (in terms of percentage points) was December '74 to January '75.



The initial talk was that the rate of job loss was slowing; but that looks like an illusion, due to the high level of seasonal temporary workers who lose their jobs in January. It's actually getting a lot worse.


[edit on 8-3-2009 by theWCH]

It seems things are a lot better than predicted in this statistics ?

I mean its much less than the numbers for july were here aren't they ?

Verizon is going to get rid of 8k employees soon. These companies are selling out their employees to keep their stock prices high. Unemployment is going to go sky high by the end of the year. I doubt we even see temp seasonal jobs. Hell we got k-mart and sears putting up Christmas trees in July its so bad.

reply to post by Valeri


Those stats only use those that are registered to collect Unemployment benefits. As of 8/1, 700,000 have come off the rolls. Next month it will be more exhausting their benefits. The numbers game is going to make it look better but it's actually getting worse! This is one of the reasons you not hearing about any extensions. The numbers make it look like something good is happening when it's actually just not being counted! They are trying to paint a rosey picture for 2010 elections!
Zindo

Originally posted by ZindoDoone
reply to post by Valeri

 

Those stats only use those that are registered to collect Unemployment benefits. As of 8/1, 700,000 have come off the rolls. Next month it will be more exhausting their benefits. The numbers game is going to make it look better but it's actually getting worse! This is one of the reasons you not hearing about any extensions. The numbers make it look like something good is happening when it's actually just not being counted! They are trying to paint a rosey picture for 2010 elections!
Zindo

it doesn't make much sense then,since back in june everyone was still on benefits and it wasn't over 9.9 percent as it shows, so still somebody was wrong when came up with these numbers. The further it goes, the more wrong it seems to get, even with the off-benefits guys who ain't counted anymore.
Things aren't as bleak as this and will never be 34.3% as it says here. I'ts gonna top out at 20%,the U6.

[edit on 8/1/2009 by Valeri]

U6 very well may be in the 30% range.. U3 however is a timed-unemployment number.. meaning you can only be in that category for so long (72 weeks I believe).

This means as the worst months of last year are rolling off benefits, unemployment will decrease, even as employment numbers will still be negative.

Hopefully, at this point, people will wake up and demand accurate counting. I doubt it.

reply to post by Rockpuck


So are you saying the numbers will be more bullish than these expectations?

I think most people agree that unemployment will be getting worse for short term, but this has historically and always will lag the turnaround.

If more than 3 out of 10 are out of work they are not looking hard enough or just need to end up at a mcdonalds where they belong or something. I know the economy sucks pretty much right now but I know 7-11 here is always hiring and I see a new weirdo in there everyday when I go in there (and this is in florida)

Speaking of the devil. I just got a letter from the unemployment office earlier today with forms to fill out all them aimed to get to me off the rolls. The wording they are using in them is an obvious attempt to shift blame from the employer that terminated and let me go from my job onto myself. They are getting desperate it seems to throw people off. In typical government fashion they tell me to fax the forms to a number which to my surprise is not in service.

[edit on 8/1/2009 by Soulhacking]

reply to post by GreenBicMan

If more than 3 out of 10 are out of work they are not looking hard enough or just need to end up at a mcdonalds where they belong or something.

That's a little harsh don't you think? End up at McDonalds where they belong? Maybe you belong there and not them since you think so highly of them.

You play the stock market right? Do you buy stocks based on companies laying off people? Do you have morals when you buy/sell stocks or is it all about money to you?

Don't pool everyone into people who can't hold a job. That's BS. I know people who are trying like hell to get a job and they are getting nothing...not to mention...no person can live of those crummy wages without help or massive debt.

Originally posted by David9176
reply to post by GreenBicMan

 

If more than 3 out of 10 are out of work they are not looking hard enough or just need to end up at a mcdonalds where they belong or something.

That's a little harsh don't you think? End up at McDonalds where they belong? Maybe you belong there and not them since you think so highly of them.

You play the stock market right? Do you buy stocks based on companies laying off people? Do you have morals when you buy/sell stocks or is it all about money to you?

Don't pool everyone into people who can't hold a job. That's BS. I know people who are trying like hell to get a job and they are getting nothing...not to mention...no person can live of those crummy wages without help or massive debt.

Do I belong at mcdonals? Lol, my dad might tell you that sometimes, but I dont think so. I have made some moves in my life though that might say otherwise lol!

Do i buy stocks based on companies laying off people? Yes, you would if you were smart because the market likes that.

Do I have morals based on that? No, why would I? Do you like burning money?

I am just saying if the current employment market justifies you flipping hamburgers, then that is what you do. Too many people in america think they are "above" some things, and if I brought you back to where my dad is from there are many people that would kill to flip a hamburger at minimum wage.

Fortunatly, I have never been put in that position, so knock on wood. At the same time I rarely take things for granted, and if you knew me well, you would think the same thing. I work my a$$ off studying things for more hours in a day than most people are awake.

reply to post by GreenBicMan

Do i buy stocks based on companies laying off people? Yes, you would if you were smart because the market likes that. Do I have morals based on that? No, why would I? Do you like burning money?

So you admit that you are willing to make money off of others misfortunes? You say that makes you smart...are you sure that doesn't make you a jerk?

"do i like burning money?"

yeah..i love burning money. I love it so much that I take complete disregard for anyone and everyone including those of my own blood all for the sake of money.

Wall street is nothing but a casino that plays upon people's misfortunes...and you are all but wiling to play the game....and it's all justified by 401'ks because people have their retirements at sake.

That's the only excuse anyone has...and that is why it exists in the first place.

I don't mean to seem hostile with you...but your comments look as if you are "above" those who are working at McDonalds. Is that their fault? Or is it your own perception................

reply to post by David9176


Well what you are not recognizing is this.

Before mc donalds or whoever lay these people *off* the price of the stock has already gone lower. That is why UNEMPLOYMENT IS LAGGING the LEADING INDICATOR OF THE MARKET.

The market is anticipating their growth (and rehiring) 6-18 months down the line. So when the price of xxx company has been hurt, and then you see them laying off and the market (stock) goes higher - that is just a good example of why unemployment is a lagging indicator.

This is why most retail are always loosing or seeing things in different terms than really what it is about, and that is anticipation of forward results.

I would also not feel bad making money on anything related to the market. As far as that goes it is just numbers and math, if I had the capital, at most my 100-500 puny retail shares dont matter in a game anyways that is played in exponentials.

[edit on 1-8-2009 by GreenBicMan]

reply to post by Rockpuck


What is the difference things are'nt going to change, no matter what

the numbers, They just don't want panic, not yet anyway!

reply to post by GreenBicMan

So are you saying the numbers will be more bullish than these expectations?

Ultimately, due to the way the calculations are brought about, one must assume that the numbers will appear "bullish" .. when in fact, if you look hard enough, they are not. Just a mask put over the real numbers. It's of course possible the Government will not allow Unemployment to fall while monthly reports show negative growth.. you may see .1/.2% gains -- sounds like June, huh?

I think most people agree that unemployment will be getting worse for short term, but this has historically and always will lag the turnaround.

Absolutely true. Except there is no indication what so ever that the Real Economy is recovering.. The only indications shown is that we are now declining at an easier pace.

It should be noted that in a typical recession the average job loss (that was considered loss) per month was roughly 100,000. We are loosing 340,000 a month and declaring that a good thing. Since it's better than 800,000. Does that make sense?

If more than 3 out of 10 are out of work they are not looking hard enough or just need to end up at a mcdonalds where they belong or something.

I've been out of work for going on 8 months now. Every time I go in to an interview it's a line out the door of people there for the same job. Doesn't matter how specific my specialty is, always competition. I have applied to everything from my specialty to digging graves (literally). Granted I have not applied at a McDonalds, but no one at McDonalds around here seems to even speak English. But I guess that's where I belong.

Sadly if we all went to work for McDonalds, even they may stop hiring.



(Total unemployed totals in the tens of Millions...... if you forgot. Or didn't know.)

I've been unemployed since January when the entire overnight shift at the retail store I was working at got canned. One of my co workers had been working at that job since the 70s and survived the company going into bankruptcy and the store itself burned to the ground and he had to get sent to temp job at another facility while the place was rebuilt brick by brick.

Rockpuck,
If you can be in a line that's good. Here you can't get passed the receptionist and most places have a sign in the window that says 'All applications must be presented online at WWW......... or mailed to ........ They will not speak to you! They wont even tell you if or what jobs are available. I have over 275 resumes out all over this country and I only got one call back and that was from a local friend who finally offered me a job and I hadn't even sent a resume to him. Others are not going to be so fortunate!

ZIndo

Been at unemployed for roughly 8 months, but I make money with my writing. As far as the McDonalds thing goes, I'd be lying if I said I hadn't thought about it.

I'm beginning to wonder if unemployment is no longer a lagging indicator, but a leading indicator. With the level of job losses out there I'm not surprised stock prices have jumped up, but stock prices won't mean a damned thing if no one can buy to boost those earnings reports, which were ridiculous, if you do your own research and turn CNBC off, that is...otherwise people seem to think everything is great.

[edit on 1-8-2009 by projectvxn]

reply to post by projectvxn


The reason unemployment is a lagging indicator is the nature of a "rebound".

Eventually the economy reaching a state of being where the absolute maximum decline has been reached. Once at this bottom the momentum swings, everything like production, output, consumerism etc eventually has no where to go but up. Keeping in mind that the 1-3% gains are only after a total of 10-20% declines. As orders pick up, profits come in, companies THEN turn to hiring the help they need to expand the business. The Economy then moves into a cycle of growth as more and more consumers come back into the market. The Economy then reaches a new Maximum of growth, and turns negative.

This is the "Normal Business Cycle" .. Anyone who has studied Economics can tell you that we are not in a Normal Business Cycle at all..

Unemployment will still be a lagging indicator simply through the laws of economics.. but all indications are showing that perhaps we expanded to much to fast .. the deflation from vanishing Credit, which only happened in the Great Depression, is going to take a very, very long time to repair.