climate predictions

A bbc article shows new predictions for the climate, one of them being that teh Indian monsoon is destroyed within a year! Imagine all those people starving because there isn't rain for the crops!


news.bbc.co.uk...


Melting of Arctic sea-ice (about 10 years)
Decay of the Greenland ice sheet (about 300 years)
Collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet (about 300 years)
Collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (about 100 years)
Increase in the El Nino Southern Oscillation (about 100 years)
Collapse of the Indian summer monsoon (about 1 year)
Greening of the Sahara/Sahel and disruption of the West African monsoon (about 10 years)
Dieback of the Amazon rainforest (about 50 years)
Dieback of the Boreal Forest (about 50 years)

Very Interesting

Unless the Himilaya somehow dissappear, and or move away from the Indian sub-continent, the monsoon isnt going away anytime soon.
Some of the other predictions sound about right for the action but some of the time frames seem a little drastic, particulary the sahara, sahael greening. That would indicate a MAJOR shift in the climate of the northern hemisphere.
The greenland icesheets will be gone long before that, they are receeding far faster than anyone could have thought.
If the atlantic thermohaline circulation collapses, north america and europe start to go back into the freezer.
Nobody really seems to understand that "Global Warming" will inevitably lead to a new period of glaciation, for the northern hemisphere, just like it has untold times in the past. The only difference is that we are increasing the the temp of the atmosphere with our carbon emmisions, instead of it being volcanoes, and forest fires.
As more fresh water is released into the atmosphere, by evaporation, the atmosphere will cool, water vapor is a parasol gas, it blocks sunlight from reaching the earths surface, and when it precipitates out and freezes its also very reflective.
Changing climate is the #1 reason for major changes in human development.
A couple of years ago when the japanese built the fastest computer at the time, might still be?, they built it for climate modeling. They were modeling climate patterns 200-300 years into the future, and their results were such that many of them were never made public and there was a fairly high level meeting of representatives of different countries to discuss the results.
Also, in 2003-4?, DARPA, wrapped up a project, that used very advanced statistical analysis, to predict future geo-political and social trends. By using know reactions of populations to internal and external inputs, they could predict the actions of large groups of people and political entities, to similar inputs.
When using the current changes in climate as an influence one thing they came up with was war in europe over water, the french and germans were going to go at it again, and russia will see large parts of its western lands overun by refugees from eastern europe.
They also predicteded china would move on the african oil fields, within 20 years, and that would lead to a china-us conflict.
Their predictions were pretty dire for the the next 200 years, and it all stems from a change in climate.