Deescalation/End of Ukraine Conflict in next 90 Days

Posting an observation and a prediction:

The “War in Ukraine” will be over in the next 90 or so days, give or take - and almost certainly over within 120 days.

Why?

I posted previously that the Ukraine conflict is actually all about expanding NATO military presence in the Arctic, and by extension increasing the proximity of NATO to Russia - specifically in the Arctic region:

www.abovetopsecret.com...

The key piece that needed to fall is getting Sweden into NATO.

And now we did!

www.bbc.com...

With the addition of Sweden, we (the US via NATO) can now arm the snot out of the Nordic regions with US and EU military assets - “NATO”. With the changing Arctic climate, this is extremely important - and will secure military dominance in a region that will only become more economically and politically relevant. There is an odds-on chance that the admission of Sweden, and subsequent material expansion of NATO/US firepower in that region will set up America and The Alliance for another 100 years or more of economic dominance, and be well positioned to enforce that dominance with significant military firepower.

This means that the “War in Ukraine” was a means to accomplishing a lot - like the following:
- Create an excuse to expand nato.
- Let Russia expend a bunch of manpower and assets for really nothing gained.
- Expand NATO in the near Arctic to assure dominance of that region, move nato closer to Russia, and give NATO a platform for gunboat diplomacy.
- Get rid of all of our unused supply to secure a larger military budget to buy back modern weaponry with full public support (modernize).
- Bring Ukraine into NATO so we can put a whole bunch of military assets within striking distance of the Russian Navy in Crimea.

End of the day, the largest point of note above is the expansion of NATO IMO - both Arctic and Ukraine.

“Coincidentally”, it’s going even more poorly in the Ukraine. So much so, the US is now OK’ing cluster bombs:

www.bbc.com...

And, Ukraine can’t join NATO during the conflict - President said so:

www.huffpost.com...

So here’s the prediction:

- OK the use of cluster munitions that will likely make this war even more deadly.
- Sweden gets the OK to join NATO and it goes through.
- Biden sets the table saying “must have peace before Ukraine can join NATO”
- The US will at the 11th hour avert the use of cluster munitions, minimizing the bloodshed and saying we must have a peaceful solution.
- Peace deal reached - brokered by a NATO country. Russia will take all occupied territory, Ukraine will accept that and be cheered as hero’s for keeping the Russians at bay - which is a hypothesis that could explain why we blew up a dam and have let the nuclear plant deteriorate since the Russians will now have to deal with that.
- Russians look like idiots for killing hundreds of thousands of their own people for more-less nothing. Putin will be in a tough spot as he’s now outgunned and got outfoxed - and let a lot of Russians die for his stupidity.
- NATO “peacekeeping” forces will step into Ukraine in large numbers to “defend our new, formal nato partners who suffered at the hands of Putin - never again!” They will have air support, supplies, all of modern variety. I suspect it will be a true show of force, as they have to make sure people see that the good guys are here.

This will all happen fast, NATO will look like the saviors, Russia will be in a tough spot (Putin specifically) and it’s game over.

On this basis, I suspect the conflict in Ukraine will be over in about 90 days - and if you’re an American or NATO citizen, your team pulled off some seriously excellent strategy.

What say you?

Nato is nearly out of ammo and will take years to rebuild their stocks , this little special military operation is far from over it may well just heat up in the next 60 - 90 days ahead and with China joining in on the sanctions of materials and the Brics announcing gold back trade in August things are only getting going .

Expect to see Russia get some foreign recruitment from places like North Korea and China

They want the cluster bomb units to take them apart.

The Mk 20 CBU one they would love as the bomblets are anti tank, weigh just right for their DJI Drones and perfect for taking out the soft tops of Russian tanks.

www.technology.org...

a reply to: VulcanWerks

- The US will at the 11th hour avert the use of cluster munitions, minimizing the bloodshed and saying we must have a peaceful solution.

Biden has used all his power-and our money-from day one to ensure there will be no peace deal made. Whatever the motives, de-escalation doesn't seem likely, IMO.

Why in earth would you tell the Russians that you are going to use cluster bombs . Wouldn't it be better if it were a surprise?

If you really understand military strategy you have to understand what North Korea's father told the president of North Korea today it's that don't give in it's all about missiles in the future and that's the fact it's all about missiles and if you can have a submarine type fleet then go for it Navy it's history we can have thousands of little

a reply to: VulcanWerks
That was a lot of typing and thought put in to this post. And some how, you missed the point that Russia invaded Ukraine with the initial goal to topple Kiev, which failed - badly. Sweden is for NATO, so it doesn't suffer the same. As much as I despise Biden administration, he did tell the world Putin was going to invade. I will give him that.

Why are Finland and Sweden not allowed to join defensive alliances for self preservation ?

a reply to: vance
Russia "invaded" Ukraine for one reason only and it wasn't Kiev. Please look at the Southern regions of Ukraine from 2014 the Donbass. Ukraine has been ethnically cleansing this area since 2014 and being as they are mostly Russian speaking and more aligned to Russia than Ukraine, they asked for help from Russia to stop the attacks. Why do you think that Russia has only taken that part of Ukraine and shows no serious initiative of going farther North. No matter how much the western war hawks tell you otherwise.
As for Finland, they have been a part of NATO since April 2023.

a reply to: crayzeed

Russia "invaded" Ukraine for one reason only and it wasn't Kiev. Please look at the Southern regions of Ukraine from 2014 the Donbass

You couldn't be more wrong.

Part of the Russian invasion of Ukraine was launched from Belarus to the north of Ukraine.

That's the shortest route to take Kyiv, and also it's no where near the Donbas.

a reply to: alldaylong

The Airborne landing on Hostomel also indicates a intention to take the city or surround the city.

Using the airfield to ship in heavy equipment.

a reply to: TheGreazel

Has it ever occurred to you that the move towards Kyiv was a diversion. So that, Russia could easily take the prized southern territory with a Black Sea port.

originally posted by: graysquirrel
a reply to: TheGreazel

Has it ever occurred to you that the move towards Kyiv was a diversion. So that, Russia could easily take the prized southern territory with a Black Sea port.

Russia planed to take the whole of Ukraine in 10 days.

a reply to: TheGreazel

Why are Finland and Sweden not allowed to join defensive alliances for self preservation ?

man your behind the times. Finland join NATO in april, the last veto against Sweden was dropped by turkey, and they have submitted the final formal application. somewhere i read it will be awhile because turkey's parliament won't be able ratify their joining before the NATO summit is over. turkey gets to join the EU, and also gets to buy 40 new F-16's in the deal.

After hours of talks with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg on Monday, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan agreed to lift his veto of Sweden’s NATO membership bid. His U-turn comes after Stockholm reaffirmed its support behind for Turkey’s longstanding bid to join the E.U., and, some have speculated, Washington’s announcement on Tuesday that it “intends to move forward” with the transfer of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey. “Sweden will become a full member of the alliance,”
Stoltenberg said of the decision on Monday. He added that Erdoğan had made a “clear commitment” on Sweden’s accession.
Why Sweden’s Path to NATO Membership Has Been So Rocky

a reply to: BernnieJGato

I know , my post was more a general question to people who say Sweden and Finland have no right or business joining NATO because it might upset Russia.

This is a trade war.
It's about monopolies.
USA and UN are trying to blackball Russia because they won't get onboard with the U.S. dollar supremacy and submit. Russia have lived through so much hardship and heavy trade sanctions that now they're just gonna be like "Well f■ck it. If we have to fight for a share anyway, then we might as well just destroy the USA and become the new king."

I watch every Putin interview I can get my hands on, and he is always pretty clear about his motives so I honestly don't get the confusion about him.

The coals might smoke a few times before it ignites, but it isn't dying.

And just to be clear, I'm not saying Putin is a good guy or anything, but a lot of Russian citizens feel really antagonized by the USA at this point, and I honestly don't think it would take much to get them to support another hot war against us.

Russia invading Ukraine is a lot like USA invading Iraq. I don't believe in borders and don't even want government, but the Russians view us as massive hypocrites, and it's kinda true.

Update:

37 days later, it appears NATO is considering Ukraine ceding territory in exchange for NATO membership:

The comments were made on Tuesday by Stian Jenssen, chief of staff for NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, and reported by the Norwegian newspaper VG. "I think that a solution could be for Ukraine to give up territory, and get NATO membership in return," he said, adding that it should be up to Ukraine when and on what terms to negotiate.

Jenssen said the issue of Ukraine’s status after the war is being discussed within the alliance and that some countries have raised the possibility of Kyiv ceding some territory. The comments come as the Ukrainian counteroffensive is stalling, and Western officials are admitting it’s very unlikely to succeed.

The comments mark the first time that a high-level NATO official suggested Ukraine might have to cede territory to Russia.

Link: www.zerohedge.com...

Obviously, Ukraine kept it’s war rhetoric up (crush Putin, must win, etc.) and I expect that mantra to be hammered home up to the bitter end.

If Ukraine is smart, they’ll do exactly what’s outlined. Said another way, the long-term smart play for Ukraine is to give up the now bombed out and contested territory for a much larger gain that is NATO protection and money to rebuild and reinforce the balance of the country. If you’re thinking long-term as Ukraine, you’re actually giving very little to get a whole lot.

I have posted several times that Sweden is the final piece of the chessboard to fall into place - once they’re in, the war is over. However, with Finland in, NATO has already put a major NATO fence against the Russian boarder. Sweden will get in eventually, but, the cost of staying on the current path to membership may be fairly high given the Ukraine’s struggles, fading global support for them in terms of money and equipment, impact on the EU and general inflation, etc.

37-ish days since I said 90 days and it’s over, so, we’re still in the window.

I sense that Norway’s message will gain momentum, more NATO members will tire of the drain the conflict is causing, and those members will support “fast-track” membership into NATO for Ukraine - a Ukraine which NATO will then occupy (in a way) and be the ultimate proof that the real idiot is Putin because he won the battle and lost the war - NATO now has him closed in on multiple sides and right up against their borders.

Never mind how impactful this would be to Crimea - if a NATO/Russia war broke out, I suspect we’d be ready to decimate Crimea at a moments notice - including ships and infrastructure - which NATO would quickly occupy and reclaim.

This is excellent, excellent strategic planning and execution. Make no mistake, NATO is winning bigly right now, and if we can convince Zelenskyy to come to his senses, that victory will be cemented as Russia will now face a permanent and superior military presence on their doorstep and be forced to operate in “NATOs Lake” going forward.

63 more days to see if this thesis plays out in the time bound I put forth - we shall see!

originally posted by: VulcanWerks
NATO now has him closed in on multiple sides and right up against their borders.

Yes because that is so much different than Russia taking over Ukraine and... uh... having even more NATO countries right up against their borders.

US is now sounding the alarm:

www.zerohedge.com...

Rep. Andy Harris (R-MD), a co-chair of the congressional Ukraine Caucus, said this week that he’s not sure if the Ukraine war is "winnable" and called for the US to pressure Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to pursue peace talks.

Given the US has been the (a) primary source of funding and equipment for Ukraine, if the US is saying time for peace talks, it will probably happen.

The “peace” drums are getting louder:

www.zerohedge.com...

"If We Press This With Russia, It Will Reach Us Here In The US" - Col. MacGregor Tells Tucker Why The Ukraine War Must End Now

The good Col. is correct.

Now, he’ll be labeled some sort of Trump loyally… but I don’t think he’s saying it from that standpoint. I suspect he’s being a realist - because he’s right.

I support the expansion of NATO, personally, because strategically it puts my children in a better position if I think 10-40 years forward - probably me, too, as an American.

The good Col. just said the quiet parts out loud.

Peace is coming.

The alternative would not be good, and those in power know that.

I suspect some people have hung too many hats on the Ukrainian situation and now have to either double down (quadruple down?) or face harm that will jeopardize everything.

We’ll see.