China's Never Ending Ponzi Schemes

I talked about this years ago in how the Chinese faked their double-digit growths in the past by building whole cities with everything in them but people. This led to years later as the infrastructure started to collapse and so the real estate became worthless with no one actually living in these cities and the poor construction now has made them dangerous waste sites. The Chinese lost ten+ trillions of investments into decades of faked projects all set up as a Ponzi scheme to just keep building as long as the investments keep pouring in until at some point it all collapses and these companies go out of business with the initial startup people walking away billionaires.

Then it happen again in 2015 to 2018 with shared bikes and in the video, you can see what that turned into too. Millions and millions of bikes are produced to keep the investments flowing and once again when the investments dry up the companies go bankrupt and you end up with massive piles of millions of bikes rotting, with initial startup people walking away once again with billions of other people's investment money.

Well we have the next one up and it is ride-sharing electric cars, and it has gone the same way as the Dodo share bike scheme with 100,000s of electric cars with less than 100 miles on them rotting now in fields all over China. People were saying that China is taking over the world with their electric car production, the greenest country on earth, they are the best! Well, now they have massive electric car graveyards with dangerous batteries/chemicals that will pollute the land like an electric Chornobyl.

In the end, whatever China is showing as a world leader in, we all need to understand it is based on only a Ponzi scheme to dupe people out of their investments with no real substance to any of it.

What do you mean with CHINA faked their growth? And what do you mean with faking? What is "real" growth in your definition, in your understanding? How do you even measure that?

EVERYONE fakes their growth in a system that is based on fiat-currencies. Especially the west. We had many decades to perfect that system of faking and making up stuff. China is just not as good (yet) at hiding certain aspects of the shenanigans, that's all.

And if you want to start arguing about "real" growth. Look at where China was 50 years ago and where it is now. 50 years ago, poor with no real industry, even starving people. Now, no starving people, in fact, a growing middle class and lots of people that got lifted out of poverty. What do we have in the US and the whole west instead? Decline, decline, destruction of the middle class, crumbling infrastructure and increasing social unrest. So, who has the real growth? Really.

How does China deliver "free" to your door?

Apparently, it's subsidized so developing countries get tax breaks and so forth, and according to the Postal Union (based in Switzerland) China is regarded as a "developing country".

Just don't try to return it!
You'll have to pay levies yourself.
Thus, making returns unlikely.

originally posted by: Torlin

And if you want to start arguing about "real" growth. Look at where China was 50 years ago and where it is now. 50 years ago, poor with no real industry, even starving people. Now, no starving people, in fact, a growing middle class and lots of people that got lifted out of poverty. What do we have in the US and the whole west instead? Decline, decline, destruction of the middle class, crumbling infrastructure and increasing social unrest. So, who has the real growth? Really.

Did I touch a nerve...

The huge advancements in China in the last 30+ years were due to Western capitalism bringing its industry/production there. That took 800 million poverty-stricken Chinese into the middle class. Those 100s of millions are who have been investing in these Ponzi schemes over and over.

This post is about China so maybe you could reply to my OP and not just say look at America. I hate to tell you, but China is in a world of hurt much worst than what we see as bad in America today. We could say both are having social issue etc, but China is a true house of cards.

originally posted by: halfoldman

Apparently, it's subsidized so developing countries get tax breaks and so forth, and according to the Postal Union (based in Switzerland) China is regarded as a "developing country".

Government subsidies are how a country takes control of a manufacturing area. The US lost its hold on steel production like 50 years ago because China and Japan in the past sold steel cheaper than cost with subsidies from the government. Within a decade the steel industry in other countries like America and Germany goes under and now these other countries can charge what they want. We have made a comeback because countries can not substain subsidies forever. That is what China has been doing with solar panels too in recent times.

originally posted by: Torlin
I hate to tell you, but China is in a world of hurt much worst than what we see as bad in America today. We could say both are having social issue etc, but China is a true house of cards.

We all are in a world of hurt. Simply because of the fiat currencies. Pensions, social security and the whole shebang is based on the principle that the working generation is paying for the generation that is retired. Up until recently, that was all fine and good because the working generation was big enough and the generation that is retired was small enough. That has changed and is no longer the fact, it just will get worse. And the distinction between private and public pension plans doesn't help because it is a matter of demand and supply that sets the price. All of that is in deep trouble.

China is especially in trouble because of their 1-child policy that was enforced up until very recently (recent in terms of generations). Now they have a massive amount of aging population and a rapidly shrinking workforce.

You don't need to point to any specific shenanigans or technicalities, I assure you those exist everywhere in one form or another (bank bailouts rings a bell?).

No, the real problem is the aging society without sufficient support from the working generation (and no, I don't suggest to import millions of young migrants because those won't be able to generate the required income). No one has found a good solution to that problem yet.

originally posted by: Xtrozero
The US lost its hold on steel production like 50 years ago because China and Japan in the past sold steel cheaper than cost with subsidies from the government.

Not true.
US steel production in 1967: 115 million tons.
US steel production in 2020: 85 million tons. (-25%)

The years in between show a steady decline from 115 to 85. That is a noticeable reduction, but far from a death blow.

originally posted by: Xtrozero
Within a decade the steel industry in other countries like America and Germany goes under and now these other countries can charge what they want.

Not true either.
Steel production in German 1967: 41 million tons
Steel production in German 2020: 40 million tons


China is producing low-quality steel with low profit margins in humongous amounts.
Germany (but the US as well) has transitioned away from producing low-quality, low-profit steel towards specialized, high-quality steel with high profit margins. I don't see that as a loss when it comes to business and economics

Being self-sufficient and independent of other nations in base materials/products is a very different topic though.

originally posted by: Torlin

China is especially in trouble because of their 1-child policy that was enforced up until very recently (recent in terms of generations). Now they have a massive amount of aging population and a rapidly shrinking workforce.

China in the last 10 or so years has made it extremely hard for new industries to come there for their manufacturing. Rules. regulations and cost just drive everyone away now. Companies already there are starting to leave too mainly due to once again new rules and higher costs. This has opened up a massive population of workers out of a job with none available. Adding to the disastrous 1 child policy where families would abort female babies to get the son to carry on the family's name we now have a large population of people who will not get married, not have kids because they can barely afford to live on their own.

I have seen numbers of like in 25 to 35 years China will be about 600 million with a large aging population.

originally posted by: Xtrozero
... Adding to the disastrous 1 child policy where families would abort female babies to get the son to carry on the family's name we now have a large population of people who will not get married, not have kids because they can barely afford to live on their own.

I have seen numbers of like in 25 to 35 years China will be about 600 million with a large aging population.

Yes, that is correct.
People don't understand population forecasts. They are very accurate, quite easy to model, and they are inevitable. There is NOTHING you can do to change the outcome except for literal genocide or global war.

originally posted by: Torlin

US steel production in 1967: 115 million tons.
US steel production in 2020: 85 million tons. (-25%)

Between 1979 and 1982 more than 150,000 steelworkers were made redundant and hundreds of steel facilities were closed. Convinced that something needed to be done to ease their economic woes, steel producers also asked the government to impose trade restrictions and to take action to prevent foreign dumping.

In total, nearly 300,000 steelworkers lost their jobs between 1976 and 1986. In places like Youngstown, and Gary, Indiana, whole communities were left devastated by plant closures.

Was not a small event... These companies sold below cost and then crumbled because they could not match China's costs that were government subsidized.

originally posted by: Torlin
Yes, that is correct.
People don't understand population forecasts. They are very accurate, quite easy to model, and they are inevitable. There is NOTHING you can do to change the outcome except for literal genocide or global war.

It is interesting in the 80s one of my college classes was population. In that class, we were told that the increase in population was not due to birth rates and it was because people lived longer. We also see that birth rates are impacted by economies in poor countries that have higher birth rates because kids are basically free labor. As society moves to the middle-class kids become more of a liability in cost so there are fewer. If we cut the 2.1 per woman ratio down we end up with a growing older population that would lead to retirement at higher ages like 75 instead of 65.

a reply to: Xtrozero

China is Huge with many resources I'ts actually a beautiful place , The thing we need to be concerned about Is XI has stated Taiwan will be reunited with China not if but when and he has set a timeline and has plans to go further then Taiwan .

This will start soon Like any day now soon They are ahead of the US now even building SIFI style battle ships while Biden embraces his girly side .

originally posted by: Ravenwatcher

China is Huge with many resources I'ts actually a beautiful place , The thing we need to be concerned about Is XI has stated Taiwan will be reunited with China not if but when and he has set a timeline and has plans to go further then Taiwan .

This will start soon Like any day now soon They are ahead of the US now even building SIFI style battle ships while Biden embraces his girly side .

It's both beautiful and horrible at the same time. It is one of the few places I do not want to go back to, especially the bigger cities. I don't trust much in the way of anything I put in my body from china.

a reply to: Xtrozero

Right on point.

That's their economy. Infrastructure and construction too. Building massive cities of 25% occupied high-rises, vacant freeways, then somehow selling more unbuilt condos to its own citizens to continue the endless pyramid scheme that is building things more Hubris than necessity.

If a country was ever suffering from little man syndrome, its freaking China. No other country's entire essence is surrounded more by an insecure need to puff out its chest than China. Well, maybe North Korea, but they don't really count as a country.

a reply to: Xtrozero

Yup I used to believe the hype, but as more and more information leaks out, its a train wreck and the locomotive has already left the tracks problem is its a 100+ cars so we still got some time for the crash to end.

Lots of data out there for people to read up on, the real estate bubble the ccp is pouring billions into to try and keep going, while they bulldoze buildings and the people in china are getting nervous.

Few of the worse banks already had runs on them, they cant keep pumping money into the bubble, some major corporations are looking to move industry out all signs are pointing to a horrendous crash.

Only real question in my mind will it be so bad they decide to risk ww3 so the ccp can keep power with a distraction war.

originally posted by: Irishhaf

Only real question in my mind will it be so bad they decide to risk ww3 so the ccp can keep power with a distraction war.

One wonders if their war will be actually with India...

So here is a little bit more about China and why taking Tiwane would be very bad for them on a global scale.

China built their ghost cities but with no reasons for building them.
No industry for the people living in them to work at. so, no reason for building them. and no way for those people to make a living.
so they set empty till they fall apart.

originally posted by: ANNED
China built their ghost cities but with no reasons for building them.
No industry for the people living in them to work at. so, no reason for building them. and no way for those people to make a living.
so they set empty till they fall apart.

The big goal was to show the world a double-digit percentage growth. As foreign companies and investors leave China now they are having huge unemployment issues as workers come to work and the doors are locked with nothing for them. China was a massive farming system in the past of workers manually farming for hardly anything. This was their 800 million in extreme poverty that in the last 30 years left farming and moved to the big cities working capitalism-provided jobs. This should go down in history as one of the greatest feats in the last 100 years as a massive amount of poverty around the world was eliminated.

Moving forward, China is now hostile to foreign investors and much of the world in one way or another, and the cost now to do business there is 15 times what it was only 15/20 years ago. Companies leave and go elsewhere leaving a massive number of people in the big cities with nothing. They can't go back to farming and so it is a double edge sword of no work and no food production. Not going to be pretty in the next decade or so.

a reply to: Xtrozero

Few more runs on banks they will have to pick a fight with someone, honestly at this point I am beginning to think india might work them over, they already got peepee smacked in the early 80s against vietnam, Taiwan would be like trying to eat a porcupine while its still alive, possible but its going to hurt.

Then of course the US, while they have stolen a lot of our tech (or had it "given" to them thanks bill) they have to know there is a lot more that they havent seen.

What will happen... no clue but ill lay big odds it pops before the industries can enact a major pull out from china.

Seems first quarter 2023 Chinese profits industrial sector is down 21%. Steel production is basically dead right now with 66% of steel mills having zero profit.