Valentine's Day could really suck in 2046

I'm a bit surprised this hasn't already hit the boards.

Seems NASA has discovered a NEA (Near-Earth Asteroid) named 2023DW which has a 1 in 607 chance of impacting the planet on Valentine's Day 2046. Now, given, this is over two decades out, and a 1 in 607 chance is much lower than any surgery I have had, but compared to other NEAs discovered, 1 in 607 is pretty high. Plus, the article goes on to say that additional impacts could occur between 2047 and 2051. So there are multiple impact scenarios, each one with its own probability.

Now, I'm not one for doom and gloom, and a rock the size of a swimming pool is far, far from an ELE... but it does bear watching. If this asteroid is indeed aiming for the Earth, we only have 23 years to divert it. If nothing else, the reaction to this asteroid should be a decent gauge to how exactly well-prepared we are. After all, we spent how many months just trying to get Artemis 1 off the launch pad? That, again, does not give me a lot of confidence in present technology.

NASA is still studying the trajectory and I am sure they will have some updates as time goes by... the difference between catastrophe and complete safety is literally unnoticeable. But hey, while we're all waiting for WWIII to blow up, I thought it would be something to talk about. If nothing else, I'm curious as to how large a catastrophe would be from this thing.

TheRedneck

a reply to: TheRedneck

It's only a 50m diameter rock. Not the Apocalypse. Sadly ?

Doom off.

originally posted by: TheRedneck

1 in 607 is pretty high.

1 in 607 is pretty low.

After all, we spent how many months just trying to get Artemis 1 off the launch pad? That, again, does not give me a lot of confidence in present technology.

SpaceX launches successfully once per week. I wouldn't judge present technology based on a government project.

a reply to: M5xaz

I wonder how fast it's moving? After all, if I threw a 150-grain rock at you at 10 feet/second, you'd probably not even feel it. But I promise you, if I shot a 150-grain bullet at you traveling 2000 feet/second, you'd know it.

It's not just mass.

TheRedneck

Kiss from God.

It’s going to get busy, because according to a theory by Douglas B. Vogt (Diehold Foundation), our sun will burst into a so called “solar micro nova”, affecting all life on earth with giant tsunamis, electric storms, continents flooding with giant mud streams and finally even an ice age, which will also happen in 2046.

a reply to: TheRedneck


Yeah, Apophis will get us first in 2029 or 2036.

Asteroid Apophis to cause massive destruction on Earth in 2036, says NASA

www.wionews.com...


Just to let you know, they keep saying it will not hit us in 2029 but as time goes by (news articles from the early 2010's to 2023, that distance to earth keeps closing. It was 35K miles, then 29K, then 23K, now it is 19K..... hmmmmm

www.latimes.com...

Apophis will pass roughly 19,000 miles (31,000 kilometers) above Earth’s surface. That’s about one-tenth the distance to the moon.

This is more like it.

Proper doom porn, at last!

youtu.be...

a reply to: infolurker

Sounds in character for something you name Apophis.

a reply to: TheRedneck

Help a moron out?


What is the error margin of trajectory over a 23 period without any other extraneous factors?



To me, this sounds like a ready made problem that's going to cost quite abit of taxpayer money and attention.


Perhaps I've been here too long.

a reply to: TheRedneck

Well, they already successfully tested that meteor moving thing, the one that pushes a meteor slightly off course.

I think we'll be ok in 2046.

a reply to: TheRedneck

23 years time I'll either be dead or going through what used to be euphemistically called my 'second childhood' - truth be told I've never really gotten out of my first childhood - so, what will be will be.

But my Grandson will still be around so I hope this misses or by then we'll have something that can accurately deflect it from its course.

It does amaze me that we can track and observe something that is relatively so small so accurately.

Just build a giant sling to catch the asteroid and throw it at one of those loser planets. I always hated Trappist 5.

a reply to: TheRedneck

I was really hoping I would be around for the BIG ELE, but it looks like I'm not gonna make it.

Guess I need to sell my vintage lawn chair and 100 year old bottle of whiskey I was saving for the event.

a reply to: Freeborn

Bruce Willis is out of the game with dementia.

Jason Statham, maybe?

Valentine's Day already sucks. I had a wedding anniversary on that day I'd like to forget.

a reply to: TheRedneck

I suspect that before 2046 we will be able to give it a nudge away from us should it be thought to pose a threat , work has already started on deflecting potential threats.

I wouldn't worry so much about 2023DW. The timing doesn't appear to match up. Some here might want to keep an eye on Apophis. I would put my money on that one hitting. Perfect timing. April 13, 2029 is when. The Bible has 1000 prophecies, and 500 have already come true, and the other 500 are in the process of coming true or will. I think the last 500 will be happening in this "Decade of Destiny". The Bible doesn't name it, but it does describe the new monetary system and New World Order that is in process right now. If (you know who) can collapse the currency, everything else will follow immediately thereafter. Things on Earth will be good in 2046. By 2029, I expect 59% of Earth's population will be destroyed.

I think its a waste of time to be concerned with 2046, as calamity will hit the whole Earth long before then.
We should see a war in the middle East soon, and then the White Horse.

Don't lose any sleep over 2023DW

youtu.be...


Impactor theory. Earth crosses a highway of asteroids every 12k years?

If that 50m diameter rock turns out to be an Iron, then it could make it to the ground at cosmic velocity. Still not the apocalypse but a hell of a blast if it hits land.

The Barringer Meteor was an Iron and was 30-50m in diameter.... Check out that hole in Winslow.