Viral dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 variants in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals

So this is a pre-print paper published on medrxiv of a study on viral dynamics in acute covid 19 infections by the Delta and alpha variants. The study quantified course of the infection through proliferation to clearance as well as viral loads and some other info and found that the course of a covid 19 infection by those variants to be similar in both vaccinated ans unvaccinated people, with the only difference being a clearance time of 5.5 days for vaxed and 7.5 for unvaxed. A two day difference.

The authors also recommend 'mitigation measures' to limit transmission from vaccinated individuals.

From my understanding of this, the vaccines essentially don't do anything to lessen the severity of infection and vaccinated individuals are potential vectors of disease that need to be mitigated.

www.medrxiv.org...

Background The alpha and delta SARS-CoV-2 variants have been responsible for major recent waves of COVID-19 despite increasing vaccination rates. The reasons for the increased transmissibility of these variants and for the reduced transmissibility of vaccine breakthrough infections are unclear.

Methods We quantified the course of viral proliferation and clearance for 173 individuals with acute SARS-CoV-2 infections using longitudinal quantitative RT-PCR tests conducted using anterior nares/oropharyngeal samples (n = 199,941) as part of the National Basketball Association’s (NBA) occupational health program between November 28th, 2020, and August 11th, 2021. We measured the duration of viral proliferation and clearance and the peak viral concentration separately for individuals infected with alpha, delta, and non-variants of interest/variants of concern (non-VOI/VOC), and for vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals.

Results The mean viral trajectories of alpha and delta infections resembled those of non-VOI/VOC infections. Vaccine breakthrough infections exhibited similar proliferation dynamics as infections in unvaccinated individuals (mean peak Ct: 20.5, 95% credible interval [19.0, 21.0] vs. 20.7 [19.8, 20.2], and mean proliferation time 3.2 days [2.5, 4.0] vs. 3.5 days [3.0, 4.0]); however, vaccinated individuals exhibited faster clearance (mean clearance time: 5.5 days [4.6, 6.6] vs. 7.5 days [6.8, 8.2]).

Conclusions Alpha, delta, and non-VOI/VOC infections feature similar viral trajectories. Acute infections in vaccinated and unvaccinated people feature similar proliferation and peak Ct, but vaccinated individuals cleared the infection more quickly. Viral concentrations do not fully explain the differences in infectiousness between SARS-CoV-2 variants, and mitigation measures are needed to limit transmission from vaccinated individuals.

Hmmmm….does that mean that the COVID vaccines are shortening the course/reducing the severity of COVID Infections similar to how Tamiflu shortens the course/reduces the severity of flu?

That matches what was said about the vaccine almost from the start. The main difference is that the virus has less chance of becoming covid in vaccinated people and the time of active transmission is just less in vaccinated people. They still get the virus at a sixty some percent rate of unvaccinated, but the active transmittable time is somewhat less....five to seven days for vaccinated and ten to fourteen days for unvaccinated was the initial findings from the trials.

Because the delta version is faster replicating the people who are vaccinated have just as much chance of infecting others as unvaccinated people do. The fact that the vaccinated people are way more out in close contact with others because they falsly believe they are not able to infect others is the reason that this wave is bad. Sure there are unvaxed that are now out and about getting sick, because they believe the vaccinated cannot give them the disease which is not at all true.

The propaganda campaign spread about this vaccine made a lot of people sick, saying that you can go out and about when vaccinated without fear only related to you getting covid form off the virus, these people are out getting unvaccinated people sick who believe they cannot get the virus from those who are vaccinated. In reality, there is no reduction in transmission of this virus between the vaxed and unvaxed, the reason being that social distancing is not being observed and people believe they are being safe minded if vaccinated. This vaccine is not like the flu vaccine and others, it is not a real vaccine like we are used to. The government agencies have somehow tricked people into believing they are not contagious when they can spread it yet. Fauchi did mention at first that you had to still be cautious, but changed his speeches to make it sound like you were safe when the numbers of people getting vaccines was slowing down. He deceived the public and hurt lots of citizens to try to push vaccinations.

That is how I see it, there was a lot of fake promises made with this vaccination program and I think that those who started this misinformation should lose their government agency jobs.

The pharma companies wrote the truth down about this and politicians, media, and heads of agencies trying to promote this vaccine made up a lot of garbage of how it was going to make life safer for everyone. It is ninety five percent effective at stopping covid from forming in the vaccinated, it is somewhere in the sixty percent range at stopping people from getting and transmitting the virus.

a reply to: dug88

There's so much misinformation out there about the vaccine, and it's just mind boggling. Armchair journalists read a study and sensationalize the hell out of it, without really understanding what the data means. They just read words like "viral proliferation" and take their own interpretation of it.

Let's break this down, because you can't get a whole sense of a peer reviewed scientific study just by reading the abstract:

-The study states that persons vaccinated and then infected with a breakthrough infection are less likely to transmit the infection to others than unvaccinated individuals, specific to this study because the viral load is for a less duration of time than those without the vaccine.

-There are several limitations to the study, one being the sample obtained from a non-diverse group (90% male and almost all of the sample being obtained from relatively healthy individuals).

-A big concern to me from the study is that they obtained a sample partially from players in the NBA, which is about as far away from the represented population as you can get.

-The study measures viral load from nasopharyngeal swabs, and specifically states "we were unable to assess differences in viral dynamics between symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals, nor were we able to link the timing of symptoms with key points in the viral trajectories." This means that they did not link viral load to severity of symptoms. You can have a high viral load circulating in the blood. The difference with a vaccinated person is the antibodies are working hard to destroy the virus in the blood, thus the virus disappearing sooner.
Two days sooner, according to this study.
If that keeps the lungs from shutting down, then those two days are worth their weight in gold.

Our main question with the vaccine is if we have symptoms or not, and if the vaccine keeps us out of the hospital and off of a ventilator. Severity of infection for most people isn't attributed to viral load, its attributed to severity of symptoms, and specifically to COVID and its variants, lung function. This study isn't going to tell you much in that regard.

One thing it did get right though is the possibility of asymptomatic vaccinated individuals transmitting the virus to others.
Thats why wearing a mask is so important.

a reply to: dug88

This fits entirely with the way a vaccine works.

Being vaccinated does not stop a person from being exposed to the virus.

On first exposure, it takes some time before the immune system responds to the infection. During which time, the infected person can spread the virus to others.

People treating the vaccines as if they are some magic cure-all that works instantaneously and completely aren't being helpful.

The effects of vaccines are over large populations and over time. The idea is to turn around a exponentially spreading pathogen, to one which is in decline. Once it is no longer trending 'upward' in numbers, and begins to trend 'downward', the pathogen, and its epidemic will begin to die off provided people don't change the situation yet again.

Currently, in most countries, the upward trend on numbers of new infections has not yet been reversed.

This fits entirely with the way a vaccine works

a reply to: chr0naut
Just curious, is this the way that the MMR vaccine works?

Do you see a lot of vaccinated kids coming down with the mumps and measles?

It is time dependent. The longer the time from vaccination, the less effective the vaccine will be. Usually, it is effective for about 6 months. Covid and flu behave similarly. In contrast, smallpox vaccine is effective for up to a decade.

originally posted by: butcherguy

This fits entirely with the way a vaccine works

a reply to: chr0naut
Just curious, is this the way that the MMR vaccine works?

Do you see a lot of vaccinated kids coming down with the mumps and measles?

Yes.

Despite the vaccinations, people still occasionally got the infections. About 3 out of 100 people who get two doses of MMR vaccine will get measles if exposed to the virus. However, the campaigns of vaccination were so comprehensive that they have now suppressed the growth in numbers of those infected.

But this hasn't entirely wiped out the pathogens. If people stop the vaccinations, then the diseases will eventually gain foothold again, and come back in epidemic numbers, just like they did prior to the vaccinations.

Measles, Mumps, and Rubella (MMR) Vaccination: What Everyone Should Know - CDC

originally posted by: chr0naut

originally posted by: butcherguy

This fits entirely with the way a vaccine works

a reply to: chr0naut
Just curious, is this the way that the MMR vaccine works?

Do you see a lot of vaccinated kids coming down with the mumps and measles?

Yes.

Despite the vaccinations, people still occasionally got the infections, however the campaigns of vaccination were so comprehensive that they have now suppressed the growth in numbers of those infected.

But this hasn't entirely wiped out the pathogens. If people stop the vaccinations, then the diseases will eventually gain foothold again, and come back in epidemic numbers, just like they did prior to the vaccinations.

Measles, Mumps, and Rubella (MMR) Vaccination: What Everyone Should Know - CDC

Covid-19 follows the same seasonal patterns as other human coronaviruses. Decreasing from April to September, then increasing from October to March. Vaccine has negligible effect on number of cases.

Canada data

a reply to: chr0naut
Now do smallpox.

originally posted by: butcherguy
a reply to: chr0naut
Now do smallpox.

Edward Jenner and the history of smallpox and vaccination - NCBI

What do you expect happens to a pathogen after 200+ years of successful vaccination of its hosts?

originally posted by: amazingexplorer

originally posted by: chr0naut

originally posted by: butcherguy

This fits entirely with the way a vaccine works

a reply to: chr0naut
Just curious, is this the way that the MMR vaccine works?

Do you see a lot of vaccinated kids coming down with the mumps and measles?

Yes.

Despite the vaccinations, people still occasionally got the infections, however the campaigns of vaccination were so comprehensive that they have now suppressed the growth in numbers of those infected.

But this hasn't entirely wiped out the pathogens. If people stop the vaccinations, then the diseases will eventually gain foothold again, and come back in epidemic numbers, just like they did prior to the vaccinations.

Measles, Mumps, and Rubella (MMR) Vaccination: What Everyone Should Know - CDC

Covid-19 follows the same seasonal patterns as other human coronaviruses. Decreasing from April to September, then increasing from October to March. Vaccine has negligible effect on number of cases.

Canada data

Why hasn't the opposite been observed in the Southern hemisphere? Why have the initial infection outbreaks followed a arithmetic progression from each outbreak, in every county of the world, and each reduction in new infection numbers (like from lockdowns, masks, and from vaccinations) coincided with reduction in new infection numbers?

From a high-level perspective, Covid hospitalizations have been greater in number, as Covid vaccinations proliferate society.

Compare 2020 vs 2021 Covid-19 hospitalizations at: gis.cdc.gov...

That shouldn't be happening, now that 2 out of every 3 Americans are vaccinated!

WTH?

a reply to: chr0naut

Why hasn't the opposite been observed in the Southern hemisphere?

He must be talking about the Southern hemisphere. Because in the Northern hemisphere there was a spike during the summer last year. And the current spike began in what month?

So I guess it could be seasonal. Winter and Summer. Fall and spring are ok though.

originally posted by: carewemust
From a high-level perspective, Covid hospitalizations have been greater in number, as Covid vaccinations proliferate society.

Compare 2020 vs 2021 Covid-19 hospitalizations at: gis.cdc.gov...

That shouldn't be happening, now that 2 out of every 3 Americans are vaccinated!

WTH?

Why? More people now are having an immune reaction to the virus that was previously novel.

In the old days pre vaccination, more people showed no effect until the virus had overwhelmed their metabolism and by the time they were hospitalized, they were end-stage. Now people are vaccinated, more people are presenting to hospital and quarantine, but a greater percentage are surviving.

And the duration of the infection among the vaccinated is much attenuated, too.

a reply to: carewemust

That shouldn't be happening, now that 2 out of every 3 Americans are vaccinated!

As I said in the other thread where you posted the same thing.


Sort of depends on locality though, doesn't it?

Still, using your numbers, 1 out of 3 Americans is how many people?

And what percentage of those hospitalized are vaccinated and what percentage is not? Wouldn't that be interesting to learn?

Edward Jenner and the history of smallpox and vaccination - NCBI

What do you expect happens to a pathogen after 200+ years of successful vaccination of its hosts?

But you started with this:

This fits entirely with the way a vaccine works.

Is it your stance that people that were vaccinated against smallpox got infected with smallpox and spread it to others? Did a portion of the vaccinated die of smallpox?
Did the vaccinated require boosters to stay safe?

Because that's the nature of these covid vaccines.

a reply to: butcherguy

If you need long-term protection, you may need to get booster vaccinations regularly. To stay protected from smallpox, you should get booster vaccinations every 3 years.

www.cdc.gov...

So, yes. If you are someplace where there is smallpox (hard to find, anymore) you need boosters.

From what I understand smallpox essentially died out after a long period of mass vaccination.

It could be the same with covid 19, as more people become immune the less virus will be replicated and passed on.

It won't happen anytime soon but I'd imagine the first step is making it endemic as opposed to pandemic.




a reply to: butcherguy

originally posted by: chr0naut

originally posted by: butcherguy
a reply to: chr0naut
Now do smallpox.

Edward Jenner and the history of smallpox and vaccination - NCBI

What do you expect happens to a pathogen after 200+ years of successful vaccination of its hosts?

Smallpox was very easy to eradicate. It was very visible and easy to isolate. In contrast, respiratory diseases such as common cold, flu, covid are silent spreaders, difficult to isolate.