Should You Buy GameStop Stock? The Short Answer Is No
GME stock is an icon, but that doesn't make it a buy. It is however, a great stock to short right now!
GameStop (NYSE:GME) stock has been an excellent trading vehicle lately. Despite the volatility, GME stock has provided huge ranges in both directions
allowing traders to ride these torrential waves to large profits — if they are positioned correctly.
However, while GameStop has served as a solid trading vehicle for some and as big-time entertainment for others, that’s hardly a tasty recipe for a
good investment.
There’s just no way to justify a robust valuation for this business. Throw in all the Reddit news, and investors have to wonder if it’s worth the
headache.
Breaking Down the Reddit Situation:
So what is going on with the Reddit hoopla in the first place? In the simplest terms, we have a rogue short squeeze on our hands.
Just like when investors think a stock is going up, bulls can go long the stock. When investors think a stock is going down, bears can go short the
stock. To go short though, they must borrow the shares.
Short interest is measured as a percentage, usually of the float, or the shares that are publicly traded. A high short-interest reading is usually in
the 20% to 40% range. What made GME stock so interesting is that its short interest was above 100%.
How can that be?
Essentially, the shorts were betting on bankruptcy for the struggling retailer. Believe it or not, not all shorts are looking for their positions to
go to zero. It could be that the stock has run too far or that it’s overvalued. In the case of GameStop though, they absolutely were looking for it
to go to zero.
In that case, covering their position wasn’t a problem — that is, until GameStop didn’t go belly-up.
Fueling this realization were thousands of traders on Reddit. As the hype spread online and around trading desks, it was like sharks smelling blood in
the water. GameStop obviously isn’t worth what it’s trading at now, but the recent action is all a function of short interest, short squeezes and
poorly managed risk by the hedge funds.
So What Is GME Stock Worth?
That’s a hard question to answer, given the current situation that’s playing out. However, the short answer is simple: It’s not worth as much as
it’s trading for.
The prior all-time high for GME stock came in 2007 in the mid-$60s. Now that all-time high sits all the way up at $483.
Right now as of this writing the GME is sitting at $282. For 4 1/2 out of the last five years the stock was at a steady decline from about $27 to $3.
A very steady smooth decline.
Shares are now down about 49% from the previous high, but the market is still valuing GameStop with a $17 billion market capitalization. For a
retailer that’s forecast to do $5 billion in revenue for FY 2021, that’s too rich.
GameStop might not be a bankruptcy candidate, but that doesn’t make it a good business.
As it stands, analysts expect sales to slip 28.8% this year and for earnings to fall considerably. Last year, GameStop generated a profit of 22 cents
per share. This year, it’s forecast to lose $2.17 a share.
For the last eight quarters, the business has had negative revenue growth and missed estimates in each of those quarters. Man, just look at the
revenue decline for the past three quarters: -34%, -26.7% and -30.1%.
I don’t know what that looks like for everyone else, but to me it’s horrendous.
Now, and I mean today is the time for me to do another GME short. (The trade was done several hours ago)
I already have a short position, but today would be much better time to short GME. So, I'm going to take a huge position of about 7,000 GME stocks.
I'll update this thread when I buy them back and you will see how much money I make.
This is not financial advice for any of you reading this. However I will say that every one of my millionaire friends have a short position in GME
since the recent volatility started last January and today is one of the top four days in the last six months you would want to short GME.
edit on 6/2/2021 by Alien Abduct because: Corrections