Corona Virus Updates Part 6

They need to stop talking about the mortality rate and begin to focus on the infection rate, as it seems Germany has done. I love the German mind, the little bit I know it.

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite
Its not just going to be a case of the world helping with the virus but also a case of ensuring borders are closed off and the continent itself. Africa's HIV problem will ensure that the death toll is like you said staggering. India & Pakistan are going to be a massive problem.
Is this in anyway manageable one wonders!

Closing off the borders is not actually possible unless you stick countries in glass containers. And even that's not going to help, because countries have resources that others need (Africa, for instance, produces a lot of the ores that we use in our high tech equipment.) We need to be able to sell our surplus and buy surplus from other places.

Is it "manageable"? Yes... but no. It's a "superwicked problem" (my favorite class of problems) which means you can't "solve" the whole thing but you can solve parts and change the problem in some ways. Getting a vaccine and a good treatment for it will reduce the problem to where you can safely manage imports and exports and other exchanges. And best of all, it will give us a pattern for handling the next pandemic.... because there will be a next one.

a reply to: Byrd

Not sure if you saw my reply to your comment yesterday that the virus is not found in blood


"Twenty patients had two to six specimens collected at the same time. Viral RNA was detected in single specimens from six patients (respiratory specimens, feces, or blood). Seven patients shed live virus in respiratory specimens, 5 in feces (2 of whom did not have diarrhea), and 2 in blood."

www.cidrap.umn.edu...

originally posted by: CrazeeWorld777
Japan's cases on the rise:

Hospitals in Japan are increasingly turning away sick people as the country struggles with surging coronavirus infections and its emergency medical system collapses. On Saturday, the number of cases rose from 9,239 yesterday to 9,795 and there have now been 220 deaths from the virus, up from 136 deaths on Friday. With an addition of 712 others from a cruise ship quarantined near Tokyo earlier this year, Japan now has 10,507 cases altogether. Nearly one-third of the domestic cases come from Tokyo, where the daily surge has overburdened hospitals.

www.dailymail.co.uk...

Here is what I wrote on it:

18. Ambulance news:
110 ambulances have been turned away in one day
80 ambulances have been turned away in one day
931 ambulances have been turned away last month
830 ambulances have been turned away ( I think this is for this month so far)
What the above should mean to us it that the patients in these ambulances might be corona virus infected and the hospitals here CAN NOT treat such patients. Not all patients in ambulances are infected, but... hospitals are taking no chances
19. Japanese hospitals CAN NOT handle the load of corona virus infected patients in the near future.

originally posted by: Byrd

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite
Its not just going to be a case of the world helping with the virus but also a case of ensuring borders are closed off and the continent itself. Africa's HIV problem will ensure that the death toll is like you said staggering. India & Pakistan are going to be a massive problem.
Is this in anyway manageable one wonders!

Closing off the borders is not actually possible unless you stick countries in glass containers. And even that's not going to help, because countries have resources that others need (Africa, for instance, produces a lot of the ores that we use in our high tech equipment.) We need to be able to sell our surplus and buy surplus from other places.

Is it "manageable"? Yes... but no. It's a "superwicked problem" (my favorite class of problems) which means you can't "solve" the whole thing but you can solve parts and change the problem in some ways. Getting a vaccine and a good treatment for it will reduce the problem to where you can safely manage imports and exports and other exchanges. And best of all, it will give us a pattern for handling the next pandemic.... because there will be a next one.

I understand what you are saying about the borders but if left open and many are soft ones then that's still going to be a problem in terms of infection spread and containment. Won't travel to and from Africa, India & Pakistan need to be tightly controlled and curtailed otherwise the US, EU & UK could be hit with new waves? Will those carrying HIV in Africa (60% if true) survive the infection because their immune systems will be weak will they not? I think its a nightmare scenario and weak links (and there will be some) will be a problem. Not confident!

originally posted by: pasiphae
a reply to: Byrd

Not sure if you saw my reply to your comment yesterday that the virus is not found in blood


"Twenty patients had two to six specimens collected at the same time. Viral RNA was detected in single specimens from six patients (respiratory specimens, feces, or blood). Seven patients shed live virus in respiratory specimens, 5 in feces (2 of whom did not have diarrhea), and 2 in blood."

www.cidrap.umn.edu...

I did, but at this point the virus load in the blood (which is small) makes it unlikely that mosquitoes could transmit it.

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite
I understand what you are saying about the borders but if left open and many are soft ones then that's still going to be a problem in terms of infection spread and containment.

Agreed... but it's also a problem in first world countries if you consider "borders" as between states or between cities or even between neighborhoods. At a microscopic level, that's what's happening in the world.

So... we may say here in Dallas that we're going to keep Highland Park (richest area) free from Big Germ - but schools in the area need employees other than the Rich People and if you want a hospital or an electronics store... there aren't any in Highland Park, so you have to go somewhere else.

That analogy is true for cities and for the world.

Won't travel to and from Africa, India & Pakistan need to be tightly controlled and curtailed otherwise the US, EU & UK could be hit with new waves?

It's not just those countries. It's every country and every area with poor (and underserved) populations. So here in America, the poorest neighborhoods... or Native American reservations or even certain environments like public beaches could be the center for any new wave.

Will those carrying HIV in Africa (60% if true) survive the infection because their immune systems will be weak will they not?

That percentage is WAY off. And I'm not sure why you think a weak immune system helps. HIV patients are at particular risk during this pandemic.

I think its a nightmare scenario and weak links (and there will be some) will be a problem. Not confident!

Agreed.

BUT... h. sapiens is the toughest organism on the planet AND we're clever. We'll dig our way out of this eventually, even if it takes decades. We survived the far worse -- the Black Plague comes to mind. Now that we have far better medicine and an understanding of epidemiology, we can change the outcome to where this and subsequent pandemics don't kill off one third to two thirds (estimate of Europe's deaths from the Black Plague) of the population at one go.

Not sure if this was posted and I missed it....

CDC reviewing ‘stunning’ universal testing results from Boston homeless shelter

BOSTON — The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is now “actively looking into” results from universal COVID-19 testing at Pine Street Inn homeless shelter. The broad-scale testing took place at the shelter in Boston’s South End a week and a half ago because of a small cluster of cases there. Of the 397 people tested, 146 people tested positive. Not a single one had any symptoms. “It was like a double knockout punch. The number of positives was shocking, but the fact that 100 percent of the positives had no symptoms was equally shocking,” said Dr. Jim O’Connell

www.boston25news.com... Y-yKX8kw9kJrvsGnfzE5SRcOawRqaIdkAuE-yWXi50wDvN8751rsg

originally posted by: pasiphae
Not sure if this was posted and I missed it....

CDC reviewing ‘stunning’ universal testing results from Boston homeless shelter

BOSTON — The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is now “actively looking into” results from universal COVID-19 testing at Pine Street Inn homeless shelter. The broad-scale testing took place at the shelter in Boston’s South End a week and a half ago because of a small cluster of cases there. Of the 397 people tested, 146 people tested positive. Not a single one had any symptoms. “It was like a double knockout punch. The number of positives was shocking, but the fact that 100 percent of the positives had no symptoms was equally shocking,” said Dr. Jim O’Connell

www.boston25news.com... Y-yKX8kw9kJrvsGnfzE5SRcOawRqaIdkAuE-yWXi50wDvN8751rsg

I would suspect that the ones with symptoms are either dead or decided to not go to the shelter because they knew they'd be turned away or placed in quarantine.

originally posted by: Byrd

originally posted by: RP2SticksOfDynamite
I understand what you are saying about the borders but if left open and many are soft ones then that's still going to be a problem in terms of infection spread and containment.

Agreed... but it's also a problem in first world countries if you consider "borders" as between states or between cities or even between neighborhoods. At a microscopic level, that's what's happening in the world.

So... we may say here in Dallas that we're going to keep Highland Park (richest area) free from Big Germ - but schools in the area need employees other than the Rich People and if you want a hospital or an electronics store... there aren't any in Highland Park, so you have to go somewhere else.

That analogy is true for cities and for the world.

Won't travel to and from Africa, India & Pakistan need to be tightly controlled and curtailed otherwise the US, EU & UK could be hit with new waves?

It's not just those countries. It's every country and every area with poor (and underserved) populations. So here in America, the poorest neighborhoods... or Native American reservations or even certain environments like public beaches could be the center for any new wave.

Will those carrying HIV in Africa (60% if true) survive the infection because their immune systems will be weak will they not?

That percentage is WAY off. And I'm not sure why you think a weak immune system helps. HIV patients are at particular risk during this pandemic.

I think its a nightmare scenario and weak links (and there will be some) will be a problem. Not confident!

Agreed.

BUT... h. sapiens is the toughest organism on the planet AND we're clever. We'll dig our way out of this eventually, even if it takes decades. We survived the far worse -- the Black Plague comes to mind. Now that we have far better medicine and an understanding of epidemiology, we can change the outcome to where this and subsequent pandemics don't kill off one third to two thirds (estimate of Europe's deaths from the Black Plague) of the population at one go.

What is the true % of HIV infections in Africa I wonder? I did not say that the weak immune system helps but suggested the opposite would be the case. "Will those carrying HIV in Africa survive the infection because their immune systems will be weak will they not?"

Heartland hotspots: A sudden rise in coronavirus cases is hitting rural states without stay-at-home orders

The bump in coronavirus cases is most pronounced in states without stay at home orders. Oklahoma saw a 53% increase in cases over the past week, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University. Over same time, cases jumped 60% in Arkansas, 74% in Nebraska, and 82% in Iowa. South Dakota saw a whopping 205% spike.

www.cnn.com... 8lBFogtTGrFNG7E

Numbers Update for the USA, and Elsewhere :











www.worldometers.info...
bnonews.com...

USA States :









www.worldometers.info...
bnonews.com...

Financial Times Graphs by John Burn-Murdoch :






Goodnight everybody, Stay Safe.

Los Angeles county deaths today are double what they were yesterday and total COVID-19-related deaths for the county have almost doubled over the last week.

Yesterday's numbers:
Los Angeles County Announces 40 New Deaths Related to 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19); 567 New Cases of Confirmed COVID-19 in Los Angeles County

Today's numbers:
Los Angeles County Announces 81 New Deaths Related to 2019 Coronavirus (COVID-19); 642 New Cases of Confirmed COVID-19 in Los Angeles County

LOS ANGELES – The Los Angeles County Department of Public Health (Public Health) has confirmed 81 new deaths and 642 new cases of 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19). This is the highest number of daily reported deaths in LA County to date, and the total number of deaths attributed to COVID-19 almost doubled this past week.

It's hard to see a peak there until the numbers at least flatten or start going down, but they are still going up. I think different places are going to peak at different times.

CDC says that you can’t get coronavirus from grocery packaging.
M SN.com
Let me get this straight.

We know that the virus survived on surfaces for 17 days on that cruise ship.

Now the guys that told us not to wear masks because they don’t help... are telling us that we can’t catch the virus from contaminated surfaces.... but they urge us to wear masks to the grocery store and wash our hands?

Pardon me if I choose not to trust the CDC.

a reply to: butcherguy

Listen, it is just my humble opinion, but I would not put much faith in what the CDC says. They were part of the disinformation that helped make our current situation worse. They screwed up in the beginning (mainly by trusting the WHO), and they will need to do a better job to win their own credibility back now. I think the CDC is more political, and less science / healthcare oriented anyway, unfortunately. They are just glorified cheerleaders. Sad.

Hopefully the CDC can redeem themselves, but if they are saying that you can't get coronavirus from grocery packaging, and most people can think of a few ways that transmission through grocery packaging could be possible, then they are not redeeming themselves yet!

originally posted by: butcherguy
CDC says that you can’t get coronavirus from grocery packaging.
M SN.com
Let me get this straight.

We know that the virus survived on surfaces for 17 days on that cruise ship.

Now the guys that told us not to wear masks because they don’t help... are telling us that we can’t catch the virus from contaminated surfaces.... but they urge us to wear masks to the grocery store and wash our hands?

Pardon me if I choose not to trust the CDC.

I agree. There was the report of the woman who had been self isolating because she has an autoimmune disorder.... hadn't been in contact with anyone other than her husband for weeks and she wound up getting it. Pink... the singer... hadn't left the house in weeks either and she got super sick. It's obviously getting to people even in isolation so saying that you cant get it from your groceries is kind of irresponsible because we KNOW it can live on surfaces and so far NO ONE is required to wear a mask. How do we know Jo the grocery stocker isn't asymptomatic and breathing it all over the stuff he's stocking? I'm in a major, very liberal city and the grocery staff are still only half masked depending on what store you go to.

a reply to: Fowlerstoad
That's what I'm thinking while watching this DISNEY/ABC musical tribute to the World Health Organization tonight.

Iran partially reopens capital as coronavirus deaths hit one-month low

DUBAI (Reuters) - Iran allowed some businesses in the capital Tehran to re-open on Saturday as the country's daily death toll from the new coronavirus fell to 73, its lowest in more than a month. So-called low-risk businesses - including many shops, factories and workshops - resumed operations in Tehran, a week after re-opening in the rest of the country, state television said. Television footage showed health inspectors visiting shops and reminding a baker that he was required to wear a mask despite working near a hot oven. Others inspectors were seen controlling stores where employees handed out gloves to customers. The re-opening, announced earlier this month, came as official figures showed daily deaths from the new coronavirus fell to 73 on Saturday, the lowest since March 12. That brought the total death toll to 5,031, health ministry spokesman Kianush Jahanpour said. Saturday marked the fifth consecutive day with a death toll under 100 in Iran, one of the worst-hit countries in the Middle East. The total number of people diagnosed with COVID-19, the disease caused by the new virus, reached 80,868 as the country recorded 1,374 new cases in the past 24 hours, the spokesman said on state TV. Meanwhile, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in a fatwa, or religious ruling, that believers may abstain from fasting during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan if it threatens their health. "The fast is a religious necessity and a pillar of Islamic law and it is not permissible to abstain from fasting ...unless one has a rational belief that fasting may cause a sickness, worsen a disease or prolong it," Khamenei said in the ruling published on his official website.

www.thechronicleherald.ca...