Stop looking for ET: modelling suggests we’re alone in the universe

cosmosmagazine.com...

I've argued this for a long time and ruffled plenty of feathers doing it.

I have no doubt that the observable universe is teeming with life, but I doubt it is intelligent tool-using/space-faring life. If this turns out to be true, where does that leave existing UFO reports and eyewitness accounts? I'm going to start with the most obvious reasons for UFOs (and most controversial) and work down from there*:

1) Misidentified natural terrestrial phenomena.

2) Misidentified (and largely "unknown" man-made terrestrial phenomena.

3) Liars, charlatans and attention seekers.

4) Mental illness.

As for close encounters with ETs (and "alien" abduction):

1) Victims of a man-made hoax perpetrated by one or more groups/powers.

2) Liars, charlatans and attention seekers.

3) Mental illness.


*Caveat: the psychodynamic "solution" remains remains an open question. In other words, there is a phenomenon, be it natural, psychological, metaphysical or spiritual in nature, that has been a part of human nature/existence for many thousands of years. This phenomenon is reflective of our current technology and tends to mirror our own deep-rooted "fears" concerning our social/psychological/technological advancement. The Romans saw "flying shields," the renaissance Europeans saw "flying chariots and crosses," the Victorians saw Leprechauns and "airships," and the post second world war west saw nuts and bolts spaceships (who were/are obsessed with our nuclear technology).

This phenomenon may be a manifestation of our collective id or "leak" through from another dimension (that we have no current way to identify, measure or image in any meaningful way).

But it's probably not a spacefaring ET, because the chances of those existing per the Fermi Paradox/Drake Equation is vanishingly slim.

Side note: I don't believe we should slow or halt our exploration of space, via radio, infrared or any other form of telescope. I *do* believe the universe is literally "ours" for the taking/up-for-grabs and that we have a moral/psychological/physical imperative to survive, thrive and claim it, and I believe we can do so in about ten million years (which is nothing compared to the life of the universe) and that we can do it without warp drives, space "folds" or other forms of FTL wizardry.

Your thoughts?

even the peeps at cern had givin up

claiming that we live in a unique situation

a reply to: 0zzymand0s

Existing calculations for the probability of extra-terrestrial intelligent life, they report, rest on uncertainties and assumptions that lead to outcomes containing margins for error spanning “multiple orders of magnitude”.

Constraining these, as much as possible, by factoring in models of plausible chemical and genetic mechanisms, results, they conclude, in the finding “that there is a substantial probability that we are alone”.

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence , I would argue their modelling is as much guess work as as the standard model for intelligent life in the Universe.
An intelligent species doesn't have to broadcast or travel the stars to exist but I still believe they are out there in numbers in our Galaxy.

Space is big and our search has just begun.

a reply to: 0zzymand0s

If E.T. are inter dimensional then they won't be from our universe. So they could well exist.

Hits that argument on the head.

Honestly in this reality we will only find another world like earth if we genetically engineer someone with the correct frequency.

Everything you see out there is what you see here.

We are the cosmos

I have said tooooooooooooo much

a reply to: 0zzymand0s

If we are the only intelligent life in the material universe how would this affect your spiritual beliefs or lack thereof? For me, if we are the only intelligent life it makes us the sole spearhead of evolution (not necessarily referring to Darwinism) and it is somewhat frightening. It would also certainly bolster all those creation myths throughout the world that point to the Earth's creation as the end game of the particular creator god(s).

Agree wholeheartedly with the OP on this.

Carl Jung wrote an excellent book, a generation ago, comparing contemporary UFO reports with sightings of flying witches from the Middle Ages of downtown Europe. Most witch-flight sightings took place at night. How did they see them, then? Easy, the witches were carrying lanterns that they would shine this way and that while flying...

And whats up with ETs using a big trochar for a probe to take DNA??? Back in the 1960s, that was required by human scientists, maybe. But we've been able to get DNA from a mouth swab on a Q-tip since the 1980s. So how come the aliens could fly here from Seti Alpha 6 or Beta Reticuli, but can't use a few skin cells for genetic testing?

The answer is obviously that the human observers are placed into an altered state of consciousness by paranormal cues from their environment. Greys are elves and little people from folklore, dressed up to go to a rave. The same things that warded off dark faeries in renaissance Ireland still work on today's ETs: reverse your clothing, give them a small gift (like a ball point pen or a cigarette lighter, but never cash), whistle or cross running water. Or say the Lord's Prayer, or brandish something made of iron. all of those still work on the Fays.

UFOs are not from another solar system; they're from another dimension.

And they've been visiting earth since before humans evolved here. They are like the "spirit guides" that mediums channel, writing the books that fill the new age section of bookstores. But their message is the same as it has been since humanity evolved. They keep on repeating the same actions, over and over, like a cosmic broken record. Or like an animatronic ride at Disney land; where Peter Pan has been telling the children to think happy thoughts so they can fly off to never-never land since before you were born. The grey visitors have been saying "we come in peace" for millennia...

And UFOs will still be landing, still be making crop circles and abducting cows, long after people have gone extinct.

a reply to: gortex

agreed! We are learning, thanks to our probes and our telescopes both on the ground and in space, but we know so very little yet about the known universe. Give us time.....I still believe we are being watched and visited.

Slightly flawed and non-peer reviewed report I have to say

originally posted by: alldaylong
a reply to: 0zzymand0s

If E.T. are inter dimensional then they won't be from our universe. So they could well exist.

Hits that argument on the head.

I'm in the camp that the universe is a big place and it's seems highly unlikely that we're the only ones here.

But your theory depends on there being multiple dimensions of existence, which seems like a much larger assumption IMO.

a reply to: 0zzymand0s

well, the problem with this theory, and subsequently Drake's equation, is that we presume intelligent life will be like us.
we presume they will have numbskull sensory inputs like we do, sight, sound, equilibrium etc.
they will have a need to create technology like we do, or will only be able to travel through propulsion like us, or will have the same need to explore, consume, and conquer, like we do.


we're limited to what we think 'life' can be , everything we look for is based on us. as a result, we're not looking for ETs, were looking for 'us'. to us, we're the absolute, and thus all of our explanations of the universe is based on how we can take in information. for all we know E doesn't equal mc^2.
it only does to us because of the effects of forces on us. if an ET were to come and say, not only E doesn't equal mc^2 let me show you what it really is... we would just think its magic or call them gods, because their abilities would be so far removed from ours, or our abilities to perceive theirs.

a reply to: 0zzymand0s

Our Universe just too big for us to be alone.

And to assume such without even realistically traveling further than our own star system is sheer arrogance really.

a reply to: 0zzymand0s

Politicians, and MSM seem to fit fairly well into most of your reasons/categories.

Especially for #1 because they can't seem to agree on the color of "crap".

a reply to: 0zzymand0s
I will offer the only reason there has to be life everywhere, IMO: 1) Infinity.

Don't get up, I'll see myself out.

a reply to: donktheclown

Now if infinite diversity in infinite combination turns out to be the case regarding life in our universe, it may well be just about everywhere.

Fact is we are only just beginning to understand what constitutes life on our own planet nevermind everwhere else.

Well...... no one proved 0zzymand0s wrong did they.

a reply to: 0zzymand0s

There are a few camps of thinking on this subject.

One of those camps is adamant that we are alone and that we shouldnt even look at the space and stars around us (my sister falls into this category...she practically has a heartattack whenever anyone talks non terrestrial things, which is honestly suspicious to me).

This camp and their feverish behaviors and attitudes toward the topic, to me, are reminiscent of a person that, say, cheated on their spouse, but when confronted, they vehemently deny it, with an almost hostile tone.


One of the other camps are those that claim to have seen flying vehicles that look and/or behave like no known terrestrial craft. Then there are those that even claim to have seen non human beings that are bipedal and humanoid. These reports have spanned thousands of years, anecdotal, in art, and otherwise.

Personally, I fall within the second camp. At a time I was absolutely furious with the first camp as many of them would scoff at us in the second camp, to the point that they'd attack our reputations, slandering all of us as mentally ill, manipulating other's opinions of us regularly because we didn't fall into step with their isolation mindsets. Again, I find this to be suspicious behavior.

Some of them may admit to you, if pressed, that they actually believe (and possibly know) that there are intelligent beings that are non terrestrial...they simply believe they are all evil or "demonic" and think that ignoring and blocking it out of their minds will solve the problem that they believe exists.

Others realize that the above methodology is, almost always, a sure fire way to exacerbate or even cause the aforementioned problems.

Considering how pathetic all the modeling is for “climate change” I would suggest it is far more likely the modeling is flawed than we are alone in the universe. Mathematically speaking us being the only life in the galaxy is highly unlikely.

Just a theory, like the theory there are E.T.'s out there.

Odds are we will be dead and gone before that argument is settled.

Personally, I hope there are space traveling aliens... Hate the thought of Mankind being the smartest creatures in the universe.

a reply to: 0zzymand0s

Just an alternative for you to consider, we change the state of quantum reality by observing it and from that moment we live in a particular causality or if you like reality.
Perhaps races of aware beings all have a slightly different reality based upon there observation and interaction with the base universe around them and it's many reality branching parallel's if that theory is indeed correct.
So we are more or less the same - not exactly but close enough that we live in a reality aware of one another as our personal reality's overlap with other sentience specifically of our own species whose brain is similar to our own.
We may some day encounter a species that in these terms is close enough to us that there reality also overlap's ours and vice versa and this other race may be good or bad for us, just because there reality overlaps does not mean that they will then in any way be actually like us.
We could be living on a world with many variations upon our own race just living in alternate reality's, now remember these are not other dimensions but other reality's in the many reality branching causality theory so then you can of course add in other dimensional being's as yet another source of this.

Now what if an alien super sentient race existed that could harness our reality projecting ability as a race, enslave us without us knowing it and many other races and use our reality altering/projecting ability to shape there own reality through a kind of sympathetic interaction between these border reality's around there own?.


Are there alien's, most probably but likely even if this crackpot theory I have just posited is just a pile of crud then we would most likely only ever encounter there ruin's and remains if that is we can ever actually go looking and if that is we do actually ever go looking out there.