After 30 years History has judged global-warming predictions

30 years ago, James E. Hansen, a NASA scientist, predicted dire consequences as he described his confidence in a cause -and-effect relationship between the greenhouse effect and observed warming. He testified before the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources and subsequently wrote an article in the Journal of Geophysical Research.

The rest is history, as they say. His model was used along with similar models to base government environmentl policies upon. And, of course, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was developed, and it predicted about twice as much warming.

Fast forward 30 years. How have these predictions held up?

www.wsj.com...

Thirty years of data have been collected since Mr. Hansen outlined his scenarios—enough to determine which was closest to reality. And the winner is Scenario C. Global surface temperature has not increased significantly since 2000, discounting the larger-than-usual El Niño of 2015-16. Assessed by Mr. Hansen’s model, surface temperatures are behaving as if we had capped 18 years ago the carbon-dioxide emissions responsible for the enhanced greenhouse effect. But we didn’t. And it isn’t just Mr. Hansen who got it wrong. Models devised by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have, on average, predicted about twice as much warming as has been observed since global satellite temperature monitoring began 40 years ago.

Outside the warming models, his only explicit claim in the testimony was that the late ’80s and ’90s would see “greater than average warming in the southeast U.S. and the Midwest.” No such spike has been measured in these regions.

What about the other predictions made by Hansen and the U.N. Intergovernment Panel on Climate Change (I wonder what that doozie cost taxpayers?) The source article answers.

What about Greenland's ice caps melting and rising sea levels?
What about hurricanes getting stronger?
Have storms caused increasing damage in the U.S.?
Have tornadoes gotten stronger?

Conclusion:

On the 30th anniversary of Mr. Hansen’s galvanizing testimony, it’s time to acknowledge that the rapid warming he predicted isn’t happening. Climate researchers and policy makers should adopt the more modest forecasts that are consistent with observed temperatures.

That would be a lukewarm policy, consistent with a lukewarming planet.

You're a brave man!, the Climate Change Cult will swallow you and send you to oblivion...

Looks like all the zer0zilch predictions are all washed up.

So much for "Science" and All the phonies selling the snake oil.

🚬🔫

a reply to: xuenchen

Since when did the truth ever stop anyone?

a reply to: xuenchen

I can't find a thing on what that UN "study" cost, try as I might. I suspect taxpayers paid hundreds of millions to THAT on-going globalist slush fund, but can't find any references to cost.

Wonder what their next 30-year scam will be.

I always tell people who worship at the altar of human caused climate change to research the younger dryas and get back to me...
en.m.wikipedia.org...
Specifically noting the respite from receding glaciation occurred during the warming of the globe beginnng around 22,000 years ago...
So what caused the warming in 20,000 BC, al gore enthusiasts?
And sorry for using BC to all the triggered members of ATS...but I (and you) live life with a subscription to the Gregorian calendar....so spare me your micro aggressed correction to BCE

-Chris

THE WORLD WILL END YESTERDAY!
AND YOU MAY DIE!
SEND US YOUR MONEY!

I'm still waiting for the next ice age.

Iv got a folder full of these headlines going back to the 1950s
none of them have ever come true.

a reply to: queenofswords

In 1978, the news media went rabid about global climate change. It was called something different back then 40 years ago. It was called global cooling and the onset of the next ice-age. They didn't get the hysteria and the traction they desired, so they dropped it after 8 years and in 1986 they started talking about global warming, greenhouse gases and the extinction level event coming. It was diametrically opposed to their original predictions, I guess they read the crystal ball wrong or upside down. More importantly, they needed time. Time to dumb down the kids in school and program them so in twenty more years, 2006 onwards, they'd have willing drones incapable of critical thought or questioning questionable authority.

Global warming, as defined by the agcc cult, is a ruse. A ruse to extract your hard earned dollars for what they like to call "equalization payments." What they really mean, is a way to extract more value from you and me to put into their own pockets. Global warming is not in any sense caused by people. We may help out +/- 0.1% on the grand scale of things. However, between the energy of the Sun, volcanoes and other natural events and the 200 million tons of dust from space our little planet collects every year, we ain't got next to nothing on changing anything. We aren't even a type 1 civilization and apparently their is a moderate number of dumbed down people willing to believe in the agcc cult, because a bunch of faux authority figures told them it was true.

So, to those that wish to believe in agcc theology based global warming, in that mysterious alternate reality where BS is truth, I say, whatever floats your boat. Just don't impact the rest of our reality with the agcc tax grab delusion.

Cheers - Dave

Bunk science

Not real

The earth is greening and thats a good thing maybe Egypt can reemerge as the fertile crescent once again and the lost cities of Antarctica will be exposed for all to see and not hidden by corrupt government and big bank

But, but, I have PROOF!! It's gotten so much warmer than it was just a few months ago!!


......oh wait....It's Summer.
Nevermind. Carry on.

Humm funny thing is i do remember the ice age scare ( I am 52 )
They had no plan to combat it .
as for what is really happing to earths climate its a fact but being warmer has never been a problem only a fool would think that .
On the other hand over fishing over farming over producing to the point of acid rain is a problem .
The ocean fished out and pollution getting so bad 25 % of the great reff is dead is not something that you need a model for all you need to do is look .

Wild area left on the planet getting smaller and smaller ELE every last species of animal over 200 pounds is ether going extinct or in danger of it .

yes i know still some that number 500 k same could be said 20 years agaio about all the rest that are now going on just a few left .
Every one is so focused on how warm it is but no ones seams to give a darn soon the largest animal on earth will be a man .

ps soon after men is teh largest animal rats will be once again as men can not live without the rest .

originally posted by: manuelram16
You're a brave man!, the Climate Change Cult will swallow you and send you to oblivion...

Wait so listening to scientists and reading scientific articles makes you part of a cult? Didn't know it was that easy to join a cult. Interesting.

All of us who have read "A Roadmap of Time" knew temps would stop rising after 2000.

I heard if we don't live like peasants the temperature of the Earth will be hotter than the surface of the Sun.

How will you get a tan then?

People are going to see what they believe is the problem. I personally think that cracking the earths crust and disrupting energy flow through it is effecting our weather patterns more than a raise in CO2 levels. But look at the carbon emmissions, not at our poluting or fracking to gain more carbon to burn. We are making a mess out of the whole planet. The CO2 levels are just a part of the problem, we need to conserve things more, build things to last a long time instead of making them to fail after a few years. We need to stop flying all over, shipping things all over the world, and just go back to a more simple lifestyle. What we have created is a monster, our worshiping of the economy as a judge of success of a country is destroying the ecosystem.

Climate change is happening, but the whole global warming thing is just a scam, look at this, that way our economies can flourish as the earth falls apart.

originally posted by: midnightstar
Humm funny thing is i do remember the ice age scare ( I am 52 )
They had no plan to combat it .
as for what is really happing to earths climate its a fact but being warmer has never been a problem only a fool would think that .
On the other hand over fishing over farming over producing to the point of acid rain is a problem .
The ocean fished out and pollution getting so bad 25 % of the great reff is dead is not something that you need a model for all you need to do is look .

Wild area left on the planet getting smaller and smaller ELE every last species of animal over 200 pounds is ether going extinct or in danger of it .

yes i know still some that number 500 k same could be said 20 years agaio about all the rest that are now going on just a few left .
Every one is so focused on how warm it is but no ones seams to give a darn soon the largest animal on earth will be a man .

Back then there was great panic about how the Sahara desert was advancing towards Europe and that the whole continent would become one giant desert. Well of course, what happens is that the border between the Hadley convection cells move up and and down in latitude through the decades. It's the down convection of dry cold air at night that causes the desert to remain dry. The minute there is rain, all sorts of plants come out of the ground.
That means that every generation of people, they move into these oscillation zones. For a decade life is good, there is rain and harvests. Then the patterns shift, and there is a drought.

The solution would probably be to create giant lakes like Lake Victoria, such that they create their own micro-climate. Maybe spray the deserts with some kind of water absorbent gel that retains what water reaches the surface.

originally posted by: NthOther
a reply to: xuenchen

Since when did the truth ever stop anyone?

See this thread, that is lying through it's teeth.

This WSJ article is an opinion piece, making stuff up.

For example, here's a 59 year record from radiosondes:
GLOBE
year surf
1958 0.02
1959 -0.12
1960 -0.11
1961 -0.03
1962 0.09
1963 0.07
1964 -0.32
1965 -0.22
1966 -0.17
1967 -0.09
1968 -0.24
1969 -0.16
1970 -0.20
1971 -0.25
1972 -0.13
1973 0.09
1974 -0.16
1975 -0.09
1976 -0.42
1977 0.01
1978 -0.07
1979 -0.08
1980 0.13
1981 0.23
1982 -0.05
1983 0.09
1984 -0.09
1985 -0.09
1986 0.02
1987 0.11
1988 0.15
1989 0.10
1990 0.29
1991 0.20
1992 -0.02
1993 -0.02
1994 0.13
1995 0.17
1996 0.12
1997 0.26
1998 0.44
1999 0.28
2000 0.12
2001 0.22
2002 0.40
2003 0.35
2004 0.33
2005 0.50
2006 0.40
2007 0.49
2008 0.31
2009 0.40
2010 0.54
2011 0.50
2012 0.54
2013 0.68
2014 0.74
2015 1.02
2016 1.15

Here's an easy way to summarize the trend... look at the decadal means:
1960s mean: -0.118
1970s mean: -0.13
1980s mean: 0.06
1990s mean: 0.185
2000s mean: 0.352
2010s mean: 0.739 (through 2016)

But, you know, who cares about the truth?